Altrincham won 1 of the last 3DWD2–2aet, 2–3 pensNotts County won 2 of the last 5WDWLL17th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Altrincham
Notts County
14
Shots
26
8
Shots on target
10
8
Corners
11
11
Fouls
16
1
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
0
Offsides
3
402
Passes
437
46%
Possession %
54%
—
xG
—
52%
23%
25%
1 · AltrinchamXNotts County · 2
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
39%
Both score
62%
Model pick
Altrincham 52%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.92 – 1.27
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Altrincham
52.1%
1.92
4.80 Dafabet
20.8%
+31.3
Match result
Draw
23.2%
4.30
4.10 Dafabet
24.4%
-1.2
Match result
Notts County
24.7%
4.05
1.75 Betano
57.1%
-32.5
Total goals
Over 1.5
83.2%
1.20
1.23 Betano
81.3%
+1.9
Total goals
Under 1.5
16.8%
5.96
4.50 Betfair
22.2%
-5.4
Total goals
Over 2.5
61.7%
1.62
1.73 Bet365
57.8%
+3.9
Total goals
Under 2.5
38.3%
2.61
2.20 Bet365
45.5%
-7.2
Total goals
Over 3.5
39.5%
2.54
2.75 BetVictor
36.4%
+3.1
Total goals
Under 3.5
60.5%
1.65
1.47 Betano
68.0%
-7.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
61.8%
1.62
1.70 Bet365
58.8%
+3.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
38.2%
2.62
2.15 Betfair
46.5%
-8.3
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Altrincham favoured against Notts County
Our model makes Altrincham 52% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 23% and Notts County at 25%. The goal projection is 1.92 for Altrincham against 1.27 for Notts County — a substantial edge to Altrincham on expected output. A combined 3.19 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 62% and both teams to score at 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Altrincham
Metric
Notts County
2.20 (better)
Goals scored
1.80
0.80 (better)
Goals conceded
1.20
—
Expected goals (xG)
0.93
—
Big chances *
—
9.50 (better)
Shots on target
4.20
21.50 (better)
Total shots
13.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
7.50 (better)
Corners
5.40
69.5 (better)
Possession %
46.0
—
Passes
398
—
Tackles
—
—
Fouls
16.00
—
Offsides
2.25
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.00 (better)
Yellow cards
2.80
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Altrincham v 
Notts County