Mansfield Town won 2 of the last 5DLWWD11th3–0Macclesfield won 1 of the last 5LWDDD
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Mansfield Town
Macclesfield
22
Shots
10
6
Shots on target
4
9
Corners
5
8
Fouls
10
2
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
2
Offsides
1
—
Passes
—
55%
Possession %
45%
—
xG
—
33%
25%
42%
1 · Mansfield TownXMacclesfield · 2
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
39%
Both score
63%
Model pick
Macclesfield 42%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.47 – 1.68
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Mansfield Town
33.3%
3.00
1.40 Bet365
71.4%
-38.1
Match result
Draw
24.5%
4.08
5.40 Dafabet
18.5%
+6.0
Match result
Macclesfield
42.2%
2.37
8.00 Bet365
12.5%
+29.7
Total goals
Over 1.5
82.8%
1.21
1.16 Betano
86.2%
-3.4
Total goals
Under 1.5
17.2%
5.82
5.50 Bet365
18.2%
-1.0
Total goals
Over 2.5
61.1%
1.64
1.50 Bet365
66.7%
-5.6
Total goals
Under 2.5
38.9%
2.57
2.62 Bet365
38.2%
+0.8
Total goals
Over 3.5
38.8%
2.58
2.30 Betfair
43.5%
-4.7
Total goals
Under 3.5
61.2%
1.63
1.62 Bet365
61.7%
-0.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
63.3%
1.58
1.80 Bet365
55.6%
+7.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
36.7%
2.72
2.05 Betfair
48.8%
-12.1
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Macclesfield favoured against Mansfield Town
Our model makes Mansfield Town 33% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 25% and Macclesfield at 42%. The goal projection is 1.47 for Mansfield Town against 1.68 for Macclesfield — a slight edge to Macclesfield on expected output. A combined 3.16 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 11%
1-2 9%
2-1 8%
0-1 7%
2-2 7%
This season
Season records for Mansfield Town and Macclesfield
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Mansfield Town
Metric
Macclesfield
2.00
Goals scored
2.25 (better)
1.00 (better)
Goals conceded
1.50
2.43
Expected goals (xG)
—
—
Big chances *
—
4.60 (better)
Shots on target
4.00
16.80 (better)
Total shots
7.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
6.80 (better)
Corners
4.00
52.8 (better)
Possession %
51.0
418
Passes
—
—
Tackles
—
11.20
Fouls
—
0.60
Offsides
—
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.80 (better)
Yellow cards
3.00
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Mansfield Town v 
Macclesfield