Oxford City v Leicester

2–410th

19:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Oxford City		Leicester
11	Shots	16
5	Shots on target	9
3	Corners	8
6	Fouls	12
0	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
4	Offsides	0
257	Passes	743
26%	Possession %	74%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 87%
Over 2.5: 69%
Over 3.5: 48%
Both score: 63%

Model pick: Oxford City 64%
Likely score: 2-1 10%
Expected goals: 2.38 – 1.18

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Oxford City	63.6%	1.57	8.00 BetVictor	12.5%	+51.1
Match result	Draw	19.3%	5.17	5.60 Betano	17.9%	+1.5
Match result	Leicester	17.1%	5.85	1.38 Betano	72.5%	-55.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	87.4%	1.14	1.16 Betano	86.2%	+1.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	12.6%	7.96	6.00 Betfair	16.7%	-4.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	69.0%	1.45	1.52 Betano	65.8%	+3.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	31.0%	3.23	2.63 BetVictor	38.0%	-7.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	47.6%	2.10	2.30 Betfair	43.5%	+4.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	52.4%	1.91	1.65 Betano	60.6%	-8.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	63.3%	1.58	1.85 Betano	54.1%	+9.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	36.7%	2.72	2.00 Betfair	50.0%	-13.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Oxford City favoured against Leicester

Our model makes Oxford City 64% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 19% and Leicester at 17%. The goal projection is 2.38 for Oxford City against 1.18 for Leicester — a commanding edge to Oxford City on expected output. A combined 3.56 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 69% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Oxford City is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 36% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-1 10%; 1-1 8%; 2-0 8%; 3-1 8%; 3-0 6%

This season

Season records for Oxford City and Leicester
Oxford City		Leicester
4	Played	13
3-0-1	W-D-L	5-4-4
2.25	Pts / game	1.46
2.75	Goals for / game	1.69
1.25	Goals against / game	1.46
50%	Over 2.5	69%
50%	BTTS	62%
50%	Clean sheets	31%
0%	Failed to score	15%
1-0-1	Home record	3-1-3
2-0-0	Away record	2-3-1
L1	Streak	D1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Oxford City · Leicester

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
8.0	Shots	15.4
3.0	Shots on target	6.6
1.5	Corners	7.4
1.50	Cards	1.57
6.0	Fouls	13.0
33	Possession %	66
—	xG	2.12
2 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.5	Shots	10.6
6.0	Shots on target	4.3
5.5	Corners	5.3
2.50	Cards	1.57
12.0	Fouls	10.7
68	Possession %	34
—	xG	1.06
2 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Oxford City	Metric	Leicester
2.80 (better)	Goals scored	2.20
0.40 (better)	Goals conceded	1.20
	Expected goals (xG)	2.13
	Big chances
	Shots on target	6.00
	Total shots	15.20
	Touches in opp. box
	Corners	6.60
	Possession %	64.4
	Passes	612
	Tackles
	Fouls	13.00
	Offsides	1.60
	Throw-ins
	Yellow cards	1.80
	Red cards	0.25

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Oxford City wins: 0
Draws: 0
Leicester wins: 1
Goals / game: 6.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Oxford City v Leicester2–42026-11-06