Fleetwood Town won 2 of the last 5WLLWD16th1–11–2 aetRochdale won 0 of the last 5LLDLD20th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Fleetwood Town
Rochdale
17
Shots
9
5
Shots on target
5
10
Corners
2
20
Fouls
14
2
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
3
—
Passes
—
53%
Possession %
47%
—
xG
—
54%
23%
23%
1 · Fleetwood TownXRochdale · 2
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
41%
Both score
63%
Model pick
Fleetwood Town 54%
Likely score
1-1 10%
Expected goals
2.01 – 1.27
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Fleetwood Town
54.1%
1.85
1.69 Dafabet
59.2%
-5.1
Match result
Draw
22.5%
4.44
4.10 Dafabet
24.4%
-1.9
Match result
Rochdale
23.4%
4.28
4.90 Dafabet
20.4%
+3.0
Total goals
Over 1.5
84.3%
1.19
1.24 Betano
80.6%
+3.7
Total goals
Under 1.5
15.7%
6.38
4.33 Betfair
23.1%
-7.4
Total goals
Over 2.5
63.6%
1.57
1.73 Bet365
57.8%
+5.8
Total goals
Under 2.5
36.4%
2.75
2.15 Betfair
46.5%
-10.1
Total goals
Over 3.5
41.4%
2.41
2.88 Betfair
34.7%
+6.7
Total goals
Under 3.5
58.6%
1.71
1.44 Bet365
69.4%
-10.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
62.7%
1.59
1.70 Bet365
58.8%
+3.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
37.3%
2.68
2.15 Betfair
46.5%
-9.2
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Fleetwood Town favoured against Rochdale
Our model makes Fleetwood Town 54% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 23% and Rochdale at 23%. The goal projection is 2.01 for Fleetwood Town against 1.27 for Rochdale — a substantial edge to Fleetwood Town on expected output. A combined 3.28 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 64% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Fleetwood Town
Metric
Rochdale
1.40 (better)
Goals scored
1.00
1.60 (better)
Goals conceded
3.20
1.81 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.26
—
Big chances *
—
4.40 (better)
Shots on target
2.20
12.00 (better)
Total shots
9.20
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.60 (better)
Corners
4.80
51.6
Possession %
53.4 (better)
360
Passes
516 (better)
—
Tackles
—
11.40
Fouls
9.60 (better)
1.80
Offsides
1.00 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.80
Yellow cards
1.20 (better)
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Football statistics and betting opinion for adults. Gambling involves risk — never stake money you cannot afford to lose. By continuing you confirm you are 18 or over. We would also like to use analytics cookies to see which pages are useful. Privacy policy
Fleetwood Town v 
Rochdale