Milton Keynes Dons won 4 of the last 5WWWLW12th2–1Swindon Town won 2 of the last 5WDWDL13th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Milton Keynes Dons
Swindon Town
10
Shots
5
6
Shots on target
4
3
Corners
4
6
Fouls
11
2
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
1
—
Passes
—
54%
Possession %
46%
—
xG
—
50%
23%
27%
1 · Milton Keynes DonsXSwindon Town · 2
Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
42%
Both score
64%
Model pick
Milton Keynes Dons 50%
Likely score
1-1 10%
Expected goals
1.93 – 1.38
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Milton Keynes Dons
49.8%
2.01
1.53 Betfair
65.4%
-15.6
Match result
Draw
23.1%
4.33
4.80 Dafabet
20.8%
+2.3
Match result
Swindon Town
27.1%
3.69
6.00 Bet365
16.7%
+10.4
Total goals
Over 1.5
84.7%
1.18
1.19 Betano
84.0%
+0.7
Total goals
Under 1.5
15.3%
6.56
5.50 Betfair
18.2%
-2.9
Total goals
Over 2.5
64.3%
1.56
1.60 Betano
62.5%
+1.8
Total goals
Under 2.5
35.7%
2.80
2.55 Betfair
39.2%
-3.5
Total goals
Over 3.5
42.2%
2.37
2.45 Betfair
40.8%
+1.4
Total goals
Under 3.5
57.8%
1.73
1.57 Bet365
63.7%
-5.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
64.5%
1.55
1.72 Betano
58.1%
+6.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
35.5%
2.82
2.15 Betfair
46.5%
-11.0
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Milton Keynes Dons favoured against Swindon Town
Our model makes Milton Keynes Dons 50% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 23% and Swindon Town at 27%. The goal projection is 1.93 for Milton Keynes Dons against 1.38 for Swindon Town — a substantial edge to Milton Keynes Dons on expected output. A combined 3.31 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 64% and both teams to score at 65%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 10%
2-1 9%
2-0 7%
1-2 7%
1-0 7%
This season
Season records for Milton Keynes Dons and Swindon Town
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Milton Keynes Dons
Metric
Swindon Town
1.60 (better)
Goals scored
0.80
1.80
Goals conceded
0.80 (better)
1.43
Expected goals (xG)
1.60 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
3.60 (better)
Shots on target
3.20
13.80 (better)
Total shots
12.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.40 (better)
Corners
3.80
49.2 (better)
Possession %
41.0
332 (better)
Passes
297
—
Tackles
—
13.00
Fouls
9.60 (better)
1.00 (better)
Offsides
1.60
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.80
Yellow cards
1.60 (better)
0.00 (better)
Red cards
0.25
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Milton Keynes Dons v 
Swindon Town