Bradford v Marine

7th7–0

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Bradford		Marine
25	Shots	3
14	Shots on target	0
8	Corners	3
8	Fouls	10
0	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	1
1	Offsides	0
—	Passes	—
66%	Possession %	34%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 67%
Over 2.5: 40%
Over 3.5: 20%
Both score: 47%

Model pick: Marine 36%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.11 – 1.17

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Bradford	33.6%	2.97	1.30 Bet365	76.9%	-43.3
Match result	Draw	29.9%	3.35	6.60 Dafabet	15.2%	+14.7
Match result	Marine	36.5%	2.74	13.00 Bet365	7.7%	+28.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	67.0%	1.49	1.17 Bet365	85.5%	-18.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	33.0%	3.03	5.50 Betfair	18.2%	+14.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	39.8%	2.52	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	-23.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	60.3%	1.66	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	+21.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	19.6%	5.11	2.40 BetVictor	41.7%	-22.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	80.4%	1.24	1.62 Betano	61.7%	+18.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	46.8%	2.14	2.10 Bet365	47.6%	-0.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	53.2%	1.88	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	-0.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Bradford v Marine: too close to call

Our model makes Bradford 34% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 30% and Marine at 37%. The goal projection is 1.11 for Bradford against 1.17 for Marine — almost nothing to Marine on expected output. A combined 2.28 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 40% and both teams to score at 47%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 0-1 11%; 0-0 11%; 1-0 11%; 1-2 8%

This season

Season records for Bradford and Marine
Bradford		Marine
13	Played	4
6-4-3	W-D-L	3-0-1
1.69	Pts / game	2.25
0.77	Goals for / game	1.75
0.62	Goals against / game	2.25
15%	Over 2.5	50%
15%	BTTS	25%
69%	Clean sheets	50%
38%	Failed to score	25%
3-1-2	Home record	2-0-0
3-3-1	Away record	1-0-1
L1	Streak	L1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Bradford · Marine

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.1	Shots	6.5
4.1	Shots on target	1.5
8.7	Corners	2.5
1.57	Cards	3.00
15.3	Fouls	10.0
57	Possession %	42
1.39	xG	—
7 matches	sample	2 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.7	Shots	21.5
2.3	Shots on target	9.5
4.4	Corners	7.0
2.57	Cards	1.00
12.9	Fouls	8.0
43	Possession %	58
1.24	xG	—
7 matches	sample	2 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Bradford	Metric	Marine
0.80	Goals scored	1.40 (better)
0.00 (better)	Goals conceded	0.60
1.75	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
3.60	Shots on target
14.00	Total shots
	Touches in opp. box
9.80	Corners
60.4	Possession %
384	Passes
	Tackles
15.60	Fouls
2.20	Offsides
	Throw-ins
2.40	Yellow cards
0.00	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Bradford wins: 1
Draws: 0
Marine wins: 0
Goals / game: 7.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 0%

Bradford v Marine7–02026-11-07