Eastleigh v Shrewsbury

1–215th

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Eastleigh		Shrewsbury
2	Shots	9
2	Shots on target	4
1	Corners	3
12	Fouls	11
0	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	4
—	Passes	—
51%	Possession %	49%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 88%
Over 2.5: 70%
Over 3.5: 48%
Both score: 66%

Model pick: Eastleigh 58%
Likely score: 2-1 9%
Expected goals: 2.27 – 1.33

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Eastleigh	58.1%	1.72	3.90 Bet365	25.6%	+32.5
Match result	Draw	20.6%	4.86	3.70 Betfair	27.0%	-6.4
Match result	Shrewsbury	21.3%	4.70	2.04 Dafabet	49.0%	-27.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	87.8%	1.14	1.24 Betano	80.6%	+7.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	12.2%	8.19	4.20 Betfair	23.8%	-11.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	69.6%	1.44	1.73 Bet365	57.8%	+11.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	30.4%	3.29	2.10 Bet365	47.6%	-17.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	48.3%	2.07	2.90 BetVictor	34.5%	+13.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	51.7%	1.94	1.42 Betano	70.4%	-18.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	66.3%	1.51	1.67 William Hill	59.9%	+6.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	33.7%	2.97	2.20 Betfair	45.5%	-11.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Eastleigh favoured against Shrewsbury

Our model makes Eastleigh 58% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 21% and Shrewsbury at 21%. The goal projection is 2.27 for Eastleigh against 1.33 for Shrewsbury — a commanding edge to Eastleigh on expected output. A combined 3.59 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 70% and both teams to score at 66%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-1 9%; 1-1 9%; 3-1 7%; 2-0 7%; 2-2 6%

This season

Season records for Eastleigh and Shrewsbury
Eastleigh		Shrewsbury
2	Played	14
1-0-1	W-D-L	5-3-6
1.50	Pts / game	1.29
2.00	Goals for / game	1.21
2.00	Goals against / game	1.57
100%	Over 2.5	50%
100%	BTTS	50%
0%	Clean sheets	21%
0%	Failed to score	29%
1-0-1	Home record	3-1-3
0-0-0	Away record	2-2-3
L1	Streak	L1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Eastleigh · Shrewsbury

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
2.0	Shots	13.9
2.0	Shots on target	5.4
1.0	Corners	5.9
0.00	Cards	3.13
12.0	Fouls	14.0
51	Possession %	47
—	xG	1.88
1 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
9.0	Shots	10.1
4.0	Shots on target	3.8
3.0	Corners	3.6
2.00	Cards	1.63
11.0	Fouls	12.6
49	Possession %	53
—	xG	1.31
1 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Eastleigh	Metric	Shrewsbury
1.60	Goals scored	1.80 (better)
2.20	Goals conceded	1.40 (better)
	Expected goals (xG)	1.88
	Big chances
	Shots on target	5.80
	Total shots	14.60
	Touches in opp. box
	Corners	6.20
	Possession %	49.6
	Passes	349
	Tackles
	Fouls	12.80
	Offsides	1.00
	Throw-ins
	Yellow cards	1.80
	Red cards	0.75

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Eastleigh wins: 0
Draws: 0
Shrewsbury wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Eastleigh v Shrewsbury1–22026-11-07