Wimborne Town won 3 of the last 5WWWDD2–0Crawley Town won 1 of the last 5WDLLD24th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Wimborne Town
Crawley Town
8
Shots
12
5
Shots on target
2
4
Corners
4
9
Fouls
12
5
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
2
Offsides
2
258
Passes
400
59%
Possession %
41%
—
xG
—
55%
26%
18%
1 · Wimborne TownXCrawley Town · 2
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
22%
Both score
45%
Model pick
Wimborne Town 55%
Likely score
1-0 14%
Expected goals
1.60 – 0.81
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Wimborne Town
55.4%
1.80
6.50 BetVictor
15.4%
+40.0
Match result
Draw
26.2%
3.82
4.75 Bet365
21.1%
+5.1
Match result
Crawley Town
18.4%
5.44
1.60 Dafabet
62.5%
-44.1
Total goals
Over 1.5
70.0%
1.43
1.19 Betano
84.0%
-14.1
Total goals
Under 1.5
30.0%
3.33
5.25 BetVictor
19.0%
+11.0
Total goals
Over 2.5
43.3%
2.31
1.62 Bet365
61.7%
-18.4
Total goals
Under 2.5
56.7%
1.76
2.50 Bet365
40.0%
+16.7
Total goals
Over 3.5
22.3%
4.48
2.55 Betfair
39.2%
-16.9
Total goals
Under 3.5
77.7%
1.29
1.55 Betano
64.5%
+13.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
44.9%
2.23
1.70 Bet365
58.8%
-13.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
55.1%
1.82
2.20 Betfair
45.5%
+9.6
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Wimborne Town favoured against Crawley Town
Our model makes Wimborne Town 55% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 26% and Crawley Town at 18%. The goal projection is 1.60 for Wimborne Town against 0.81 for Crawley Town — a substantial edge to Wimborne Town on expected output. A combined 2.41 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 43% and both teams to score at 45%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Wimborne Town
Metric
Crawley Town
2.00 (better)
Goals scored
1.40
0.20 (better)
Goals conceded
1.60
—
Expected goals (xG)
1.42
—
Big chances *
—
—
Shots on target
5.80
—
Total shots
12.80
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
—
Corners
3.80
—
Possession %
47.8
—
Passes
336
—
Tackles
—
—
Fouls
12.40
—
Offsides
3.00
—
Throw-ins *
—
—
Yellow cards
2.25
—
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Wimborne Town v 
Crawley Town