Accrington ST v Wycombe

9th0–213th

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Accrington ST		Wycombe
4	Shots	5
1	Shots on target	4
4	Corners	7
14	Fouls	6
2	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	1
—	Passes	—
36%	Possession %	64%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 88%
Over 2.5: 71%
Over 3.5: 50%
Both score: 71%

Model pick: Accrington ST 40%
Likely score: 1-1 9%
Expected goals: 1.85 – 1.80

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Accrington ST	39.5%	2.53	3.70 Betano	27.0%	+12.5
Match result	Draw	22.6%	4.42	3.70 Betfair	27.0%	-4.4
Match result	Wycombe	37.8%	2.64	2.21 Dafabet	45.2%	-7.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	88.3%	1.13	1.21 Betano	82.6%	+5.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	11.7%	8.58	4.50 Bet365	22.2%	-10.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	70.8%	1.41	1.57 William Hill	63.7%	+7.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	29.2%	3.42	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	-11.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	70.6%	1.42	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	+10.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	29.4%	3.40	2.25 Betfair	44.4%	-15.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	49.5%	2.02	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	+11.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	50.5%	1.98	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	-16.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Accrington ST v Wycombe: too close to call

Our model makes Accrington ST 40% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 23% and Wycombe at 38%. The goal projection is 1.85 for Accrington ST against 1.80 for Wycombe — almost nothing to Accrington ST on expected output. A combined 3.65 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 71% and both teams to score at 71%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 9%; 2-1 8%; 1-2 8%; 2-2 7%; 3-1 5%

This season

Season records for Accrington ST and Wycombe
Accrington ST		Wycombe
14	Played	13
4-7-3	W-D-L	4-6-3
1.36	Pts / game	1.38
1.64	Goals for / game	1.62
1.21	Goals against / game	1.77
50%	Over 2.5	54%
64%	BTTS	77%
29%	Clean sheets	23%
21%	Failed to score	0%
3-4-0	Home record	2-3-2
1-3-3	Away record	2-3-1
D1	Streak	W1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Accrington ST · Wycombe

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.5	Shots	13.6
4.6	Shots on target	4.6
6.5	Corners	6.1
2.25	Cards	1.29
12.1	Fouls	11.6
45	Possession %	57
1.23	xG	1.55
8 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
7.4	Shots	11.0
2.5	Shots on target	3.6
4.3	Corners	6.3
1.88	Cards	1.71
10.3	Fouls	13.3
55	Possession %	43
0.72	xG	1.34
8 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Accrington ST	Metric	Wycombe
2.00	Goals scored	2.00
0.60 (better)	Goals conceded	1.60
2.06 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.47
	Big chances
5.00	Shots on target	5.20 (better)
16.80 (better)	Total shots	14.80
	Touches in opp. box
7.20 (better)	Corners	6.40
46.6	Possession %	56.8 (better)
347	Passes	472 (better)
	Tackles
11.20 (better)	Fouls	12.00
2.00 (better)	Offsides	3.00
	Throw-ins
2.40	Yellow cards	1.00 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Accrington ST wins: 0
Draws: 0
Wycombe wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Accrington ST v Wycombe0–22026-11-07