Port Vale v Scunthorpe

19th4–2

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Port Vale		Scunthorpe
13	Shots	8
7	Shots on target	3
4	Corners	3
6	Fouls	12
0	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
7	Offsides	3
—	Passes	—
65%	Possession %	35%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 78%
Over 2.5: 53%
Over 3.5: 31%
Both score: 54%

Model pick: Scunthorpe 53%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.05 – 1.76

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Under 2.5	46.7%	2.14	2.20 Bet365	45.5%	+1.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	31.0%	3.22	2.85 Betano	35.1%	-4.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	69.0%	1.45	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	-0.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	54.5%	1.84	1.83 Betano	54.6%	-0.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	45.5%	2.20	2.05 Betfair	48.8%	-3.2
Match result	Port Vale	22.1%	4.52	1.60 Betano	62.5%	-40.4
Match result	Draw	24.6%	4.06	4.40 Dafabet	22.7%	+1.9
Match result	Scunthorpe	53.3%	1.88	5.75 Bet365	17.4%	+35.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	77.6%	1.29	1.23 Betano	81.3%	-3.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	22.4%	4.47	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	-0.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	53.3%	1.88	1.73 Bet365	57.8%	-4.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Scunthorpe favoured against Port Vale

Our model makes Port Vale 22% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 25% and Scunthorpe at 53%. The goal projection is 1.05 for Port Vale against 1.76 for Scunthorpe — a substantial edge to Scunthorpe on expected output. A combined 2.81 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 0-1 10%; 1-2 10%; 0-2 9%; 0-0 7%

This season

Season records for Port Vale and Scunthorpe
Port Vale		Scunthorpe
12	Played	2
4-3-5	W-D-L	1-0-1
1.25	Pts / game	1.50
0.83	Goals for / game	2.50
1.17	Goals against / game	2.50
17%	Over 2.5	100%
33%	BTTS	100%
33%	Clean sheets	0%
42%	Failed to score	0%
4-2-0	Home record	0-0-0
0-1-5	Away record	1-0-1
W1	Streak	L1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Port Vale · Scunthorpe

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.8	Shots	9.0
5.2	Shots on target	5.0
4.7	Corners	2.5
1.33	Cards	1.00
9.3	Fouls	12.0
52	Possession %	46
1.79	xG	—
6 matches	sample	2 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.0	Shots	12.0
3.5	Shots on target	6.5
5.3	Corners	6.5
1.50	Cards	1.00
12.0	Fouls	6.0
48	Possession %	55
0.92	xG	—
6 matches	sample	2 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Port Vale	Metric	Scunthorpe
1.60	Goals scored	1.60
0.60 (better)	Goals conceded	2.40
1.30	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
5.40	Shots on target
12.40	Total shots
	Touches in opp. box
4.60	Corners
47.6	Possession %
375	Passes
	Tackles
10.00	Fouls
2.75	Offsides
	Throw-ins
1.40	Yellow cards
0.00	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Port Vale wins: 1
Draws: 0
Scunthorpe wins: 0
Goals / game: 6.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Port Vale v Scunthorpe4–22026-11-07