Cray Wanderers won 2 of the last 5DDDWW2–22–3 aetStockport County won 3 of the last 5WLDWW2nd
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Cray Wanderers
Stockport County
15
Shots
16
3
Shots on target
6
4
Corners
7
11
Fouls
18
1
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
1
6
Offsides
2
336
Passes
668
45%
Possession %
55%
—
xG
—
40%
27%
32%
1 · Cray WanderersXStockport County · 2
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
28%
Both score
55%
Model pick
Cray Wanderers 40%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.42 – 1.25
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Cray Wanderers
40.4%
2.48
16.00 Dafabet
6.3%
+34.1
Match result
Draw
27.1%
3.69
7.20 Dafabet
13.9%
+13.2
Match result
Stockport County
32.5%
3.08
1.24 Betano
80.6%
-48.1
Total goals
Over 1.5
75.1%
1.33
1.11 Betano
90.1%
-14.9
Total goals
Under 1.5
24.9%
4.02
7.50 BetVictor
13.3%
+11.5
Total goals
Over 2.5
49.8%
2.01
1.36 Bet365
73.5%
-23.7
Total goals
Under 2.5
50.2%
1.99
3.40 Bet365
29.4%
+20.8
Total goals
Over 3.5
27.9%
3.59
1.88 Betano
53.2%
-25.3
Total goals
Under 3.5
72.1%
1.39
2.00 Betfair
50.0%
+22.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
54.7%
1.83
1.91 Bet365
52.4%
+2.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
45.3%
2.21
1.95 William Hill
51.3%
-5.9
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Cray Wanderers favoured against Stockport County
Our model makes Cray Wanderers 40% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 27% and Stockport County at 32%. The goal projection is 1.42 for Cray Wanderers against 1.25 for Stockport County — a slight edge to Cray Wanderers on expected output. A combined 2.67 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 13%
1-0 9%
2-1 9%
0-1 8%
1-2 8%
This season
Season records for Cray Wanderers and Stockport County
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (4 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Cray Wanderers
Metric
Stockport County
2.00 (better)
Goals scored
1.20
1.00
Goals conceded
0.60 (better)
—
Expected goals (xG)
2.54
—
Big chances *
—
6.00 (better)
Shots on target
4.40
13.50
Total shots
17.80 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
7.50
Corners
7.60 (better)
55.5
Possession %
69.8 (better)
—
Passes
667
—
Tackles
—
—
Fouls
8.60
—
Offsides
1.00
—
Throw-ins *
—
4.50
Yellow cards
1.20 (better)
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Cray Wanderers v 
Stockport County