Gillingham v Barrow

Match statistics

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Gillingham v Barrow: too close to call

Our model makes Gillingham 38% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 23% and Barrow at 38%. The goal projection is 1.72 for Gillingham against 1.71 for Barrow — almost nothing to Gillingham on expected output. A combined 3.43 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 67% and both teams to score at 68%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores

1-1 10%

2-1 8%

1-2 8%

2-2 7%

1-0 5%

This season

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Gillingham · Barrow

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Form comparison

Gillingham wins

1

Draws

1

Barrow wins

1

Goals / game

2.00

Over 2.5

33%

Both score

33%

• Gillingham v Barrow0–12026-11-07
• Barrow v Gillingham0–12026-02-28
• Gillingham v Barrow2–22025-12-13