Newport County v Walsall

14th3–13rd

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Newport County		Walsall
17	Shots	9
7	Shots on target	6
3	Corners	4
9	Fouls	16
0	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	1
—	Passes	—
42%	Possession %	58%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 80%
Over 2.5: 56%
Over 3.5: 34%
Both score: 60%

Model pick: Walsall 41%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.39 – 1.56

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Newport County -0.5

2.50Bet365 · fair 2.28 · qualifies at 2.34+ · 1.64u

Why this price?

Back Newport County -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.50 with Bet365 — Newport County must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 33% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 51%; we judge it at 44%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.28. The offered 2.50 implies only 40%, so the price is 9.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.64 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Newport County 1.39, Walsall 1.56.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Newport County	33.4%	3.00	2.60 Bet365	38.5%	-5.1
Match result	Draw	25.6%	3.91	3.45 Dafabet	29.0%	-3.4
Match result	Walsall	41.0%	2.44	2.70 Bet365	37.0%	+4.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	79.8%	1.25	1.30 Betano	76.9%	+2.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	20.2%	4.95	3.75 Bet365	26.7%	-6.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	56.4%	1.77	1.98 Betano	50.5%	+5.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	43.6%	2.29	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	-8.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	34.0%	2.94	3.30 Betano	30.3%	+3.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	66.0%	1.52	1.34 Betano	74.6%	-8.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	59.8%	1.67	1.75 Betano	57.1%	+2.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	40.2%	2.49	2.15 Betfair	46.5%	-6.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Walsall favoured against Newport County

Our model makes Newport County 33% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 26% and Walsall at 41%. The goal projection is 1.39 for Newport County against 1.56 for Walsall — a slight edge to Walsall on expected output. A combined 2.94 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-2 9%; 2-1 8%; 0-1 8%; 1-0 7%

This season

Season records for Newport County and Walsall
Newport County		Walsall
14	Played	13
4-6-4	W-D-L	5-7-1
1.29	Pts / game	1.69
1.43	Goals for / game	1.62
1.21	Goals against / game	0.92
50%	Over 2.5	46%
57%	BTTS	54%
29%	Clean sheets	46%
29%	Failed to score	23%
4-3-0	Home record	3-2-1
0-3-4	Away record	2-5-0
W1	Streak	W1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Newport County · Walsall

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.8	Shots	13.0
4.4	Shots on target	5.1
4.5	Corners	5.7
1.63	Cards	2.43
13.4	Fouls	13.1
39	Possession %	56
1.44	xG	1.78
8 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
9.9	Shots	18.4
3.0	Shots on target	7.0
2.6	Corners	5.0
3.00	Cards	1.29
14.4	Fouls	10.9
61	Possession %	44
1.21	xG	2.03
8 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Newport County	Metric	Walsall
1.20	Goals scored	2.00 (better)
1.20 (better)	Goals conceded	1.60
1.46	Expected goals (xG)	1.82 (better)
	Big chances
3.40	Shots on target	5.00 (better)
13.20	Total shots	14.60 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.60	Corners	5.40 (better)
41.6	Possession %	53.4 (better)
294	Passes	436 (better)
	Tackles
14.00	Fouls	10.80 (better)
1.60 (better)	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
1.60	Yellow cards	1.40 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.25

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Newport County wins: 1
Draws: 0
Walsall wins: 2
Goals / game: 4.33
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%