Bristol Rovers v 
Cambridge United
Match statistics
| Bristol Rovers | Cambridge United | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| — | Passes | — |
| 59% | Possession % | 41% |
| — | xG | — |
- Over 1.5
- 82%
- Over 2.5
- 60%
- Over 3.5
- 37%
- Both score
- 61%
- Model pick
- Cambridge United 48%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 1.31 – 1.78
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Bristol Rovers -0.5
Why this price?
Back Bristol Rovers -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 3.00 with Bet365 — Bristol Rovers must win by more than 0.5 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 28% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 42%; we judge it at 36%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.75. The offered 3.00 implies only 33%, so the price is 9.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.14 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Bristol Rovers 1.31, Cambridge United 1.78.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Bristol Rovers | 27.6% | 3.62 | 3.20 Dafabet | 31.3% | -3.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 24.3% | 4.12 | 3.75 Betfair | 26.7% | -2.4 |
| Match result | Cambridge United | 48.1% | 2.08 | 2.27 Dafabet | 44.1% | +4.1 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 81.9% | 1.22 | 1.33 Betano | 75.2% | +6.7 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 18.1% | 5.52 | 5.00 Betfair | 20.0% | -1.9 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 59.6% | 1.68 | 2.00 Betano | 50.0% | +9.6 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 40.4% | 2.48 | 1.91 Bet365 | 52.4% | -12.0 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 37.3% | 2.68 | 3.40 BetVictor | 29.4% | +7.8 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 62.7% | 1.59 | 1.52 Betano | 65.8% | -3.0 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 61.2% | 1.64 | 1.75 William Hill | 57.1% | +4.0 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 38.8% | 2.58 | 2.55 Betfair | 39.2% | -0.4 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Cambridge United favoured against Bristol Rovers
Our model makes Bristol Rovers 28% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 24% and Cambridge United at 48%. The goal projection is 1.31 for Bristol Rovers against 1.78 for Cambridge United — a clear edge to Cambridge United on expected output. A combined 3.09 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 1-2 9%
- 0-1 8%
- 0-2 7%
- 2-1 7%
This season
| Bristol Rovers | Cambridge United | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Played | 14 |
| 5-1-8 | W-D-L | 5-6-3 |
| 1.14 | Pts / game | 1.50 |
| 1.21 | Goals for / game | 1.50 |
| 1.64 | Goals against / game | 1.50 |
| 50% | Over 2.5 | 64% |
| 43% | BTTS | 86% |
| 36% | Clean sheets | 7% |
| 29% | Failed to score | 7% |
| 4-1-2 | Home record | 3-2-2 |
| 1-0-6 | Away record | 2-4-1 |
| L1 | Streak | L1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Bristol Rovers · Cambridge United
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 14.0 | Shots | 15.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.3 | Shots on target | 5.4 |
| 4.5 | Corners | 10.0 |
| 2.50 | Cards | 1.75 |
| 15.4 | Fouls | 9.6 |
| 51 | Possession % | 52 |
| 1.34 | xG | 1.69 |
| 8 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Conceded
| 11.6 | Shots | 12.1 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.1 | Shots on target | 3.8 |
| 3.9 | Corners | 5.4 |
| 2.38 | Cards | 2.63 |
| 11.6 | Fouls | 11.9 |
| 49 | Possession % | 48 |
| 1.68 | xG | 1.61 |
| 8 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Form comparison
| Bristol Rovers | Metric | Cambridge United |
|---|---|---|
| 0.60 | Goals scored | 1.60 (better) |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded | 1.40 (better) |
| 1.66 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.60 |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.40 | Shots on target | 6.60 (better) |
| 15.60 | Total shots | 16.80 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.20 | Corners | 12.00 (better) |
| 48.8 | Possession % | 52.4 (better) |
| 338 | Passes | 342 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.40 | Fouls | 9.00 (better) |
| 2.20 (better) | Offsides | 3.00 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.60 | Yellow cards | 1.60 (better) |
| 0.25 | Red cards | 0.00 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Bristol Rovers wins
- 2
- Draws
- 0
- Cambridge United wins
- 2
- Goals / game
- 2.25
- Over 2.5
- 25%
- Both score
- 25%
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