Barnet v Tranmere

2nd3–011th

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Barnet		Tranmere
13	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	2
8	Corners	4
10	Fouls	13
0	Yellow cards	3
—	Red cards	—
2	Offsides	2
—	Passes	—
—	Possession %	—
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 92%
Over 2.5: 77%
Over 3.5: 58%
Both score: 70%

Model pick: Barnet 65%
Likely score: 2-1 9%
Expected goals: 2.69 – 1.36

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Barnet	65.3%	1.53	1.78 Betano	56.2%	+9.2
Match result	Draw	17.6%	5.69	4.00 Dafabet	25.0%	-7.4
Match result	Tranmere	17.1%	5.85	4.75 Bet365	21.1%	-4.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	91.5%	1.09	1.22 Betano	82.0%	+9.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	8.5%	11.84	4.50 Bet365	22.2%	-13.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	77.0%	1.30	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	+17.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	23.0%	4.34	2.25 Betfair	44.4%	-21.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	57.7%	1.73	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	+19.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	42.3%	2.36	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	-24.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	69.7%	1.44	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	+9.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	30.3%	3.30	2.25 Betfair	44.4%	-14.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Barnet favoured against Tranmere

Our model makes Barnet 65% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 18% and Tranmere at 17%. The goal projection is 2.69 for Barnet against 1.36 for Tranmere — a commanding edge to Barnet on expected output. A combined 4.06 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 77% and both teams to score at 70%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Barnet is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 35% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-1 9%; 3-1 8%; 1-1 7%; 2-0 6%; 2-2 6%

This season

Season records for Barnet and Tranmere
Barnet		Tranmere
13	Played	14
7-5-1	W-D-L	4-7-3
2.00	Pts / game	1.36
2.15	Goals for / game	1.36
1.38	Goals against / game	1.21
77%	Over 2.5	36%
100%	BTTS	64%
0%	Clean sheets	29%
0%	Failed to score	14%
4-2-1	Home record	3-3-1
3-3-0	Away record	1-4-2
D1	Streak	W1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Barnet · Tranmere

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.9	Shots	12.5
4.6	Shots on target	4.9
7.1	Corners	4.9
1.74	Cards	1.77
11.4	Fouls	10.3
58	Possession %	43
1.88	xG	1.24
7 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.3	Shots	14.4
3.4	Shots on target	4.4
3.9	Corners	6.5
2.50	Cards	1.50
11.7	Fouls	10.8
42	Possession %	57
1.45	xG	1.21
7 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Barnet	Metric	Tranmere
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	1.20
1.40 (better)	Goals conceded	1.60
2.50 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.20
	Big chances
5.00 (better)	Shots on target	3.40
16.40 (better)	Total shots	10.20
	Touches in opp. box
7.40 (better)	Corners	5.60
58.8 (better)	Possession %	43.4
412 (better)	Passes	336
	Tackles
10.40 (better)	Fouls	10.60
2.60	Offsides	2.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.60 (better)	Yellow cards	2.00
0.20 (better)	Red cards	0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Barnet wins: 4
Draws: 0
Tranmere wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.25
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 25%

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