UEFA Champions League · Review

UEFA Champions League league phase matchday 4 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every UEFA Champions League result from league phase matchday 4 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 5 Nov 2026, updated 5 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

UEFA Champions League, league phase matchday 4 (3–4 November 2026), is complete: 18 matches, 70 goals (3.89 a game), eight home wins, one draw and nine away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of the 18 and both teams scored in ten.

The result the model rated least likely was the draw in Bodo/Glimt v Lille (0–0), which it had at 19%; the one it rated most likely was Lask Linz's win in Lask Linz v Slovan Bratislava (4–0), at 71%.

Match by match

Galatasaray 2–0 VfB StuttgartTue 3 Nov, 17:45

Before kick-off the model had Galatasaray 41%, the draw 22% and VfB Stuttgart 37%, so Galatasaray winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.06–2.26: VfB Stuttgart created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, both teams to score at 72%, did not come in. Pick published: Galatasaray -0.5 at 2.25 (free pick) — won.

Shakhtar Donetsk 0–1 Sporting CPTue 3 Nov, 17:45

Before kick-off the model had Shakhtar Donetsk 33%, the draw 23% and Sporting CP 44%, so Sporting CP winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.64–1.54: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 67%, did not come in. Picks published: Shakhtar Donetsk -0.25 at 3.10 — lost; Over 3.5 at 2.75 — lost.

Atletico Madrid 0–2 Bayern MünchenTue 3 Nov, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Atletico Madrid 28%, the draw 21% and Bayern München 51%, so Bayern München winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-2. Expected goals were 1.06–1.93: Bayern München created the better chances. The headline call, Bayern München to win at 51%, came in. Pick published: Bayern München +0.25 at 1.71 — won.

Barcelona 3–0 Aston VillaTue 3 Nov, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Barcelona 67%, the draw 16% and Aston Villa 18%, so Barcelona winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 3-1. Expected goals were 2.05–0.77: Barcelona created the better chances. The headline call, over 3.5 goals at 71%, did not come in. Pick published: Both teams to score — Yes at 1.53 — lost.

Bodo/Glimt 0–0 LilleTue 3 Nov, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Bodo/Glimt 64%, the draw 19% and Lille 16%, with Bodo/Glimt favoured; it put the draw at 19%. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 0.69–0.61: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Bodo/Glimt to win at 64%, did not come in. Pick published: Bodo/Glimt -0.25 at 1.62 — half lost.

Feyenoord 0–3 InterTue 3 Nov, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Feyenoord 38%, the draw 20% and Inter 41%, so Inter winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-2. Expected goals were 0.77–1.21: Inter created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 79%, did not come in. Picks published: Over 3.5 at 2.05 — lost; Feyenoord +0.25 at 2.50 — lost.

Lask Linz 4–0 Slovan BratislavaTue 3 Nov, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Lask Linz 71%, the draw 16% and Slovan Bratislava 13%, so Lask Linz winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 4.77–0.53: Lask Linz created the better chances. The headline call, Lask Linz to win at 71%, came in. Pick published: Over 3.5 at 2.15 — won.

Manchester United 3–2 AS RomaTue 3 Nov, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Manchester United 34%, the draw 21% and AS Roma 46%, with AS Roma favoured; it put Manchester United winning at 34%. The likeliest score had been 1-2. Expected goals were 2.78–1.66: Manchester United created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 76%, came in. Picks published: AS Roma at 2.86 — lost; Over 2.5 at 1.57 — won.

Villarreal 0–6 Paris Saint GermainTue 3 Nov, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Villarreal 27%, the draw 21% and Paris Saint Germain 53%, so Paris Saint Germain winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-2. Expected goals were 0.74–2.75: Paris Saint Germain created the better chances. The headline call, Paris Saint Germain to win at 53%, came in. Pick published: Villarreal 0 at 3.64 — lost.

AEK Athens FC 2–3 Real MadridWed 4 Nov, 17:45

Before kick-off the model had AEK Athens FC 36%, the draw 23% and Real Madrid 41%, so Real Madrid winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.95–3.40: Real Madrid created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 70%, came in. Pick published: Real Madrid +0.75 at 1.38 — won.

Fenerbahçe 3–2 LiverpoolWed 4 Nov, 17:45

Before kick-off the model had Fenerbahçe 46%, the draw 20% and Liverpool 34%, so Fenerbahçe winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-2. Expected goals were 1.78–1.59: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 79%, came in. Picks published: Fenerbahçe +0.5 at 2.30 — won; Over 2.5 at 1.53 — won.

Borussia Dortmund 2–1 Real BetisWed 4 Nov, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Borussia Dortmund 50%, the draw 24% and Real Betis 26%, so Borussia Dortmund winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.66–0.88: Borussia Dortmund created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 61%, came in. Pick published: Borussia Dortmund -0.5 at 1.75 — won.

FC Porto 4–1 NapoliWed 4 Nov, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had FC Porto 58%, the draw 22% and Napoli 20%, so FC Porto winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 3.17–1.44: FC Porto created the better chances. The headline call, FC Porto to win at 58%, came in. Picks published: FC Porto at 2.25 — won; Over 3.5 at 3.00 — won.

Lens 1–9 ComoWed 4 Nov, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Lens 36%, the draw 22% and Como 42%, so Como winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.85–4.33: Como created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 74%, came in. Picks published: Como +0.25 at 1.94 (free pick) — won; Over 3.5 at 2.35 — won.

PSV Eindhoven 1–2 Club Brugge KVWed 4 Nov, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had PSV Eindhoven 42%, the draw 20% and Club Brugge KV 39%, with PSV Eindhoven favoured; it put Club Brugge KV winning at 39%. The likeliest score had been 2-2. Expected goals were 2.95–1.78: PSV Eindhoven created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, both teams to score at 81%, came in. Picks published: Over 3.5 at 1.95 — lost; Club Brugge KV at 2.98 — won.

RB Leipzig 2–3 Manchester CityWed 4 Nov, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had RB Leipzig 30%, the draw 21% and Manchester City 49%, so Manchester City winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-2. Expected goals were 0.91–2.26: Manchester City created the better chances. The headline call, Manchester City to win at 49%, came in. Pick published: RB Leipzig +0.25 at 3.00 — lost.

Slavia Praha 1–2 ArsenalWed 4 Nov, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Slavia Praha 38%, the draw 23% and Arsenal 40%, so Arsenal winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.19–1.55: Slavia Praha created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, both teams to score at 71%, came in. Picks published: Both teams to score — Yes at 1.91 — won; Arsenal +0.75 at 1.38 — won.

Viking 4–1 Sabah FAWed 4 Nov, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Viking 60%, the draw 20% and Sabah FA 20%, so Viking winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 2.62–1.61: Viking created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 67%, came in.

The numbers this season

UEFA Champions League has averaged 3.34 goals a game over 162 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 62% of them and both sides scoring in 57%. Home sides have won 52% of matches, 19% have been drawn and away sides have won 29%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.