Villarreal v Paris Saint Germain

8th0–61st

20:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Villarreal		Paris Saint Germain
14	Shots	22
2	Shots on target	12
4	Corners	8
19	Fouls	4
4	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	1
304	Passes	743
29%	Possession %	71%
0.74	xG	2.75

Over 1.5: 91%
Over 2.5: 75%
Over 3.5: 55%
Both score: 73%

Model pick: Paris Saint Germain 53%
Likely score: 1-2 8%
Expected goals: 1.63 – 2.30

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Villarreal 0

3.64Marathonbet · fair 3.47 · qualifies at 3.57+ · 0.48u

Why this price?

Back Villarreal 0 on the Asian handicap at 3.64 with Marathonbet — Villarreal to win; a draw returns the stake.

Our model puts the chance at 34% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 26%; we judge it at 29%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.47. The offered 3.64 implies only 27%, so the price is 5.0% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.48 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Villarreal 1.63, Paris Saint Germain 2.30.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Villarreal	26.8%	3.73	4.90 Dafabet	20.4%	+6.4
Match result	Draw	20.6%	4.85	4.70 Dafabet	21.3%	-0.7
Match result	Paris Saint Germain	52.6%	1.90	1.75 Betano	57.1%	-4.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	90.7%	1.10	1.12 Betano	89.3%	+1.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	9.3%	10.75	7.50 BetVictor	13.3%	-4.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	75.2%	1.33	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	+3.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	24.8%	4.03	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	-4.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	55.3%	1.81	1.95 Betano	51.3%	+4.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	44.7%	2.24	2.00 Betano	50.0%	-5.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	72.7%	1.38	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	+1.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	27.3%	3.67	3.00 Betfair	33.3%	-6.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Paris Saint Germain favoured against Villarreal

Our model makes Villarreal 27% to win this UEFA Champions League fixture, with the draw at 21% and Paris Saint Germain at 53%. The goal projection is 1.63 for Villarreal against 2.30 for Paris Saint Germain — a substantial edge to Paris Saint Germain on expected output. A combined 3.93 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 75% and both teams to score at 73%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 8%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-2 8%; 1-1 8%; 2-2 7%; 1-3 6%; 2-1 6%

This season

Season records for Villarreal and Paris Saint Germain
Villarreal		Paris Saint Germain
12	Played	10
4-3-5	W-D-L	7-2-1
1.25	Pts / game	2.30
1.42	Goals for / game	2.20
1.25	Goals against / game	1.00
58%	Over 2.5	70%
58%	BTTS	70%
17%	Clean sheets	30%
33%	Failed to score	0%
2-1-3	Home record	3-0-1
2-2-2	Away record	4-2-0
W1	Streak	W7

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Villarreal · Paris Saint Germain

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
16.8	Shots	19.2
5.3	Shots on target	9.5
6.4	Corners	4.7
2.22	Cards	0.80
10.6	Fouls	7.0
57	Possession %	64
1.91	xG	2.54
11 matches	sample	10 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.9	Shots	14.5
4.5	Shots on target	4.9
5.0	Corners	4.1
2.70	Cards	2.01
11.3	Fouls	12.5
43	Possession %	36
1.42	xG	1.47
11 matches	sample	10 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Villarreal	Metric	Paris Saint Germain
1.60	Goals scored	3.20 (better)
1.40	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
1.47	Expected goals (xG)	2.71 (better)
	Big chances
4.40	Shots on target	9.80 (better)
16.80	Total shots	18.80 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.60 (better)	Corners	4.20
54.4	Possession %	61.4 (better)
507	Passes	611 (better)
	Tackles
10.40	Fouls	7.80 (better)
3.20	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.20	Yellow cards	0.60 (better)
0.25	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Villarreal wins: 0
Draws: 0
Paris Saint Germain wins: 1
Goals / game: 6.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 0%

Villarreal v Paris Saint Germain0–62026-11-03

UEFA Champions League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Paris Saint Germain	4	4	0	0	+15	12	Paris Saint Germain won 4 of the last 4
2	Real Madrid	4	4	0	0	+6	12	Real Madrid won 4 of the last 4
3	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	+5	10	Arsenal won 3 of the last 4
4	Como	4	3	0	1	+13	9	Como won 3 of the last 4
5	Barcelona	4	3	0	1	+8	9	Barcelona won 3 of the last 4
6	Aston Villa	4	3	0	1	+6	9	Aston Villa won 3 of the last 4
7	Manchester City	4	3	0	1	+5	9	Manchester City won 3 of the last 4
8	Liverpool	4	3	0	1	+4	9	Liverpool won 3 of the last 4
9	Club Brugge KV	4	3	0	1	+4	9	Club Brugge KV won 3 of the last 4
10	Sporting CP	4	3	0	1	+4	9	Sporting CP won 3 of the last 4
11	Real Betis	4	3	0	1	+2	9	Real Betis won 3 of the last 4
12	Borussia Dortmund	4	3	0	1	+2	9	Borussia Dortmund won 3 of the last 4
13	Bayern München	4	2	2	0	+7	8	Bayern München won 2 of the last 4
14	VfB Stuttgart	4	2	1	1	+3	7	VfB Stuttgart won 2 of the last 4
15	Inter	4	2	0	2	+2	6	Inter won 2 of the last 4
16	Lask Linz	4	2	0	2	+1	6	Lask Linz won 2 of the last 4
17	Manchester United	4	2	0	2	0	6	Manchester United won 2 of the last 4
18	Galatasaray	4	2	0	2	-1	6	Galatasaray won 2 of the last 4
19	Fenerbahçe	4	1	2	1	-5	5	Fenerbahçe won 1 of the last 4
20	AS Roma	4	1	1	2	+2	4	AS Roma won 1 of the last 4
21	Shakhtar Donetsk	4	1	1	2	0	4	Shakhtar Donetsk won 1 of the last 4
22	Viking	4	1	1	2	-1	4	Viking won 1 of the last 4
23	Atletico Madrid	4	1	1	2	-1	4	Atletico Madrid won 1 of the last 4
24	PSV Eindhoven	4	1	1	2	-1	4	PSV Eindhoven won 1 of the last 4
25	Bodo/Glimt	4	1	1	2	-5	4	Bodo/Glimt won 1 of the last 4
26	FC Porto	4	1	0	3	-1	3	FC Porto won 1 of the last 4
27	Napoli	4	1	0	3	-5	3	Napoli won 1 of the last 4
28	Villarreal	4	1	0	3	-6	3	Villarreal won 1 of the last 4
29	AEK Athens FC	4	1	0	3	-6	3	AEK Athens FC won 1 of the last 4
30	RB Leipzig	4	1	0	3	-6	3	RB Leipzig won 1 of the last 4
31	Sabah FA	4	1	0	3	-6	3	Sabah FA won 1 of the last 4
32	Feyenoord	4	1	0	3	-7	3	Feyenoord won 1 of the last 4
33	Lens	4	1	0	3	-12	3	Lens won 1 of the last 4
34	Slavia Praha	4	0	1	3	-4	1	Slavia Praha won 0 of the last 4
35	Lille	4	0	1	3	-6	1	Lille won 0 of the last 4
36	Slovan Bratislava	4	0	0	4	-16	0	Slovan Bratislava won 0 of the last 4