AEK Athens FC v 
Real Madrid
Match statistics
| AEK Athens FC | Real Madrid | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Shots | 24 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 8 |
| 0 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
| 0 | Offsides | 2 |
| 275 | Passes | 630 |
| 30% | Possession % | 70% |
| 0.95 | xG | 3.40 |
- Over 1.5
- 88%
- Over 2.5
- 70%
- Over 3.5
- 49%
- Both score
- 70%
- Model pick
- Real Madrid 41%
- Likely score
- 1-1 9%
- Expected goals
- 1.74 – 1.87
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Real Madrid +0.75
Why this price?
Back Real Madrid +0.75 on the Asian handicap at 1.38 with Bet365 — Real Madrid starts 0.75 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.
Our model puts the chance at 70% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 88%; we judge it at 81%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.24. The offered 1.38 implies only 72%, so the price is 11.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: AEK Athens FC 1.74, Real Madrid 1.87.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | AEK Athens FC | 35.9% | 2.79 | 13.00 Betfair | 7.7% | +28.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 22.7% | 4.40 | 7.60 Dafabet | 13.2% | +9.6 |
| Match result | Real Madrid | 41.4% | 2.42 | 1.33 William Hill | 75.2% | -33.8 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 87.9% | 1.14 | 1.10 Bet365 | 90.9% | -3.0 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 12.1% | 8.29 | 9.00 Bet365 | 11.1% | +1.0 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 69.8% | 1.43 | 1.30 Betano | 76.9% | -7.1 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 30.2% | 3.32 | 4.00 Betfair | 25.0% | +5.2 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 48.6% | 2.06 | 1.83 Betfair | 54.6% | -6.0 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 51.4% | 1.95 | 2.25 Betfair | 44.4% | +6.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 70.1% | 1.43 | 1.67 Betfair | 59.9% | +10.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 29.9% | 3.35 | 2.30 Betfair | 43.5% | -13.6 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
AEK Athens FC v Real Madrid: too close to call
Our model makes AEK Athens FC 36% to win this UEFA Champions League fixture, with the draw at 23% and Real Madrid at 41%. The goal projection is 1.74 for AEK Athens FC against 1.87 for Real Madrid — a slight edge to Real Madrid on expected output. A combined 3.61 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 70% and both teams to score at 70%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 9%
- 1-2 8%
- 2-1 8%
- 2-2 7%
- 1-3 5%
This season
| AEK Athens FC | Real Madrid | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Played | 12 |
| 6-2-1 | W-D-L | 10-0-2 |
| 2.22 | Pts / game | 2.50 |
| 2.56 | Goals for / game | 2.58 |
| 0.67 | Goals against / game | 0.83 |
| 67% | Over 2.5 | 83% |
| 44% | BTTS | 58% |
| 44% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 11% | Failed to score | 8% |
| 5-0-0 | Home record | 5-0-0 |
| 1-2-1 | Away record | 5-0-2 |
| W1 | Streak | W5 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. AEK Athens FC · Real Madrid
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 15.0 | Shots | 16.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.9 | Shots on target | 6.9 |
| 5.5 | Corners | 5.6 |
| 2.38 | Cards | 2.22 |
| 14.6 | Fouls | 9.4 |
| 51 | Possession % | 54 |
| 1.85 | xG | 2.34 |
| 8 matches | sample | 10 matches |
Conceded
| 12.5 | Shots | 12.1 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.9 | Shots on target | 4.8 |
| 5.3 | Corners | 2.8 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 2.62 |
| 12.1 | Fouls | 15.4 |
| 49 | Possession % | 47 |
| 1.35 | xG | 1.10 |
| 8 matches | sample | 10 matches |
Form comparison
| AEK Athens FC | Metric | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| 2.50 | Goals scored | 3.00 (better) |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded | 1.20 (better) |
| 2.10 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 2.07 |
| Big chances | ||
| 6.25 | Shots on target | 7.20 (better) |
| 17.25 (better) | Total shots | 14.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.75 | Corners | 6.40 (better) |
| 48.0 | Possession % | 52.0 (better) |
| 434 | Passes | 532 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 15.25 | Fouls | 10.00 (better) |
| 2.00 (better) | Offsides | 2.20 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.50 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.40 |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 0.25 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- AEK Athens FC wins
- 0
- Draws
- 0
- Real Madrid wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 5.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 100%
- AEK Athens FC v Real Madrid2–32026-11-04
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +15 | 12 | Paris Saint Germain won 4 of the last 4 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 12 | Real Madrid won 4 of the last 4 |
| 3 | Arsenal | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 10 | Arsenal won 3 of the last 4 |
| 4 | Como | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +13 | 9 | Como won 3 of the last 4 |
| 5 | Barcelona | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +8 | 9 | Barcelona won 3 of the last 4 |
| 6 | Aston Villa | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +6 | 9 | Aston Villa won 3 of the last 4 |
| 7 | Manchester City | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +5 | 9 | Manchester City won 3 of the last 4 |
| 8 | Liverpool | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 9 | Liverpool won 3 of the last 4 |
| 9 | Club Brugge KV | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 9 | Club Brugge KV won 3 of the last 4 |
| 10 | Sporting CP | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 9 | Sporting CP won 3 of the last 4 |
| 11 | Real Betis | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 9 | Real Betis won 3 of the last 4 |
| 12 | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 9 | Borussia Dortmund won 3 of the last 4 |
| 13 | Bayern München | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +7 | 8 | Bayern München won 2 of the last 4 |
| 14 | VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 | VfB Stuttgart won 2 of the last 4 |
| 15 | Inter | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 6 | Inter won 2 of the last 4 |
| 16 | Lask Linz | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 6 | Lask Linz won 2 of the last 4 |
| 17 | Manchester United | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | Manchester United won 2 of the last 4 |
| 18 | Galatasaray | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 | Galatasaray won 2 of the last 4 |
| 19 | Fenerbahçe | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -5 | 5 | Fenerbahçe won 1 of the last 4 |
| 20 | AS Roma | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 4 | AS Roma won 1 of the last 4 |
| 21 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | Shakhtar Donetsk won 1 of the last 4 |
| 22 | Viking | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 | Viking won 1 of the last 4 |
| 23 | Atletico Madrid | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 | Atletico Madrid won 1 of the last 4 |
| 24 | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 | PSV Eindhoven won 1 of the last 4 |
| 25 | Bodo/Glimt | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 4 | Bodo/Glimt won 1 of the last 4 |
| 26 | FC Porto | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 3 | FC Porto won 1 of the last 4 |
| 27 | Napoli | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 | Napoli won 1 of the last 4 |
| 28 | Villarreal | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 | Villarreal won 1 of the last 4 |
| 29 | AEK Athens FC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 | AEK Athens FC won 1 of the last 4 |
| 30 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 | RB Leipzig won 1 of the last 4 |
| 31 | Sabah FA | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 | Sabah FA won 1 of the last 4 |
| 32 | Feyenoord | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 3 | Feyenoord won 1 of the last 4 |
| 33 | Lens | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -12 | 3 | Lens won 1 of the last 4 |
| 34 | Slavia Praha | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 | Slavia Praha won 0 of the last 4 |
| 35 | Lille | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 | Lille won 0 of the last 4 |
| 36 | Slovan Bratislava | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -16 | 0 | Slovan Bratislava won 0 of the last 4 |