Galatasaray v VfB Stuttgart

1st2–08th

17:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Galatasaray		VfB Stuttgart
13	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	5
6	Corners	4
13	Fouls	16
3	Yellow cards	5
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	3
376	Passes	335
52%	Possession %	48%
1.06	xG	2.26

Over 1.5: 89%
Over 2.5: 72%
Over 3.5: 52%
Both score: 72%

Model pick: Galatasaray 41%
Likely score: 1-1 9%
Expected goals: 1.92 – 1.84

Advised bets

Won

Free pick

Galatasaray -0.5

2.25Bet365 · fair 2.01 · qualifies at 2.07+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Galatasaray -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.25 with Bet365 — Galatasaray must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 41% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 56%; we judge it at 50%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.01. The offered 2.25 implies only 44%, so the price is 11.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Galatasaray 1.92, VfB Stuttgart 1.84.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Galatasaray	40.6%	2.47	2.24 Dafabet	44.6%	-4.1
Match result	Draw	22.2%	4.50	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	-0.9
Match result	VfB Stuttgart	37.2%	2.69	3.30 Betano	30.3%	+6.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	89.3%	1.12	1.10 Betano	90.9%	-1.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	10.7%	9.37	8.00 Bet365	12.5%	-1.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	72.5%	1.38	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	+3.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	27.5%	3.63	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	-1.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	51.8%	1.93	1.82 Betano	54.9%	-3.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	48.2%	2.08	2.05 Betano	48.8%	-0.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	72.2%	1.39	1.33 William Hill	75.2%	-3.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	27.8%	3.60	3.50 Betfair	28.6%	-0.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Galatasaray v VfB Stuttgart: too close to call

Our model makes Galatasaray 41% to win this UEFA Champions League fixture, with the draw at 22% and VfB Stuttgart at 37%. The goal projection is 1.92 for Galatasaray against 1.84 for VfB Stuttgart — almost nothing to Galatasaray on expected output. A combined 3.76 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 72% and both teams to score at 72%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 9%; 2-1 8%; 1-2 8%; 2-2 7%; 3-1 5%

This season

Season records for Galatasaray and VfB Stuttgart
Galatasaray		VfB Stuttgart
11	Played	9
9-1-1	W-D-L	4-0-5
2.55	Pts / game	1.33
2.45	Goals for / game	1.67
1.36	Goals against / game	1.67
82%	Over 2.5	56%
55%	BTTS	56%
36%	Clean sheets	22%
9%	Failed to score	22%
5-1-0	Home record	2-0-2
4-0-1	Away record	2-0-3
W5	Streak	W2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Galatasaray · VfB Stuttgart

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.9	Shots	16.0
6.0	Shots on target	5.9
6.3	Corners	6.0
1.75	Cards	1.89
10.8	Fouls	11.4
54	Possession %	54
1.73	xG	2.01
8 matches	sample	9 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.1	Shots	16.9
4.9	Shots on target	4.2
4.5	Corners	5.1
2.75	Cards	2.79
12.9	Fouls	10.9
46	Possession %	46
1.45	xG	1.54
8 matches	sample	9 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Galatasaray	Metric	VfB Stuttgart
2.20 (better)	Goals scored	1.60
1.60	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
1.76	Expected goals (xG)	2.04 (better)
	Big chances
6.00	Shots on target	6.20 (better)
16.20	Total shots	18.20 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
6.40	Corners	7.40 (better)
53.4	Possession %	60.4 (better)
415	Passes	583 (better)
	Tackles
10.80 (better)	Fouls	11.80
3.40	Offsides	1.75 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.60	Yellow cards	1.20 (better)
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Galatasaray wins: 1
Draws: 0
VfB Stuttgart wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Galatasaray v VfB Stuttgart2–02026-11-03

UEFA Champions League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Paris Saint Germain	4	4	0	0	+15	12	Paris Saint Germain won 4 of the last 4
2	Real Madrid	4	4	0	0	+6	12	Real Madrid won 4 of the last 4
3	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	+5	10	Arsenal won 3 of the last 4
4	Como	4	3	0	1	+13	9	Como won 3 of the last 4
5	Barcelona	4	3	0	1	+8	9	Barcelona won 3 of the last 4
6	Aston Villa	4	3	0	1	+6	9	Aston Villa won 3 of the last 4
7	Manchester City	4	3	0	1	+5	9	Manchester City won 3 of the last 4
8	Liverpool	4	3	0	1	+4	9	Liverpool won 3 of the last 4
9	Club Brugge KV	4	3	0	1	+4	9	Club Brugge KV won 3 of the last 4
10	Sporting CP	4	3	0	1	+4	9	Sporting CP won 3 of the last 4
11	Real Betis	4	3	0	1	+2	9	Real Betis won 3 of the last 4
12	Borussia Dortmund	4	3	0	1	+2	9	Borussia Dortmund won 3 of the last 4
13	Bayern München	4	2	2	0	+7	8	Bayern München won 2 of the last 4
14	VfB Stuttgart	4	2	1	1	+3	7	VfB Stuttgart won 2 of the last 4
15	Inter	4	2	0	2	+2	6	Inter won 2 of the last 4
16	Lask Linz	4	2	0	2	+1	6	Lask Linz won 2 of the last 4
17	Manchester United	4	2	0	2	0	6	Manchester United won 2 of the last 4
18	Galatasaray	4	2	0	2	-1	6	Galatasaray won 2 of the last 4
19	Fenerbahçe	4	1	2	1	-5	5	Fenerbahçe won 1 of the last 4
20	AS Roma	4	1	1	2	+2	4	AS Roma won 1 of the last 4
21	Shakhtar Donetsk	4	1	1	2	0	4	Shakhtar Donetsk won 1 of the last 4
22	Viking	4	1	1	2	-1	4	Viking won 1 of the last 4
23	Atletico Madrid	4	1	1	2	-1	4	Atletico Madrid won 1 of the last 4
24	PSV Eindhoven	4	1	1	2	-1	4	PSV Eindhoven won 1 of the last 4
25	Bodo/Glimt	4	1	1	2	-5	4	Bodo/Glimt won 1 of the last 4
26	FC Porto	4	1	0	3	-1	3	FC Porto won 1 of the last 4
27	Napoli	4	1	0	3	-5	3	Napoli won 1 of the last 4
28	Villarreal	4	1	0	3	-6	3	Villarreal won 1 of the last 4
29	AEK Athens FC	4	1	0	3	-6	3	AEK Athens FC won 1 of the last 4
30	RB Leipzig	4	1	0	3	-6	3	RB Leipzig won 1 of the last 4
31	Sabah FA	4	1	0	3	-6	3	Sabah FA won 1 of the last 4
32	Feyenoord	4	1	0	3	-7	3	Feyenoord won 1 of the last 4
33	Lens	4	1	0	3	-12	3	Lens won 1 of the last 4
34	Slavia Praha	4	0	1	3	-4	1	Slavia Praha won 0 of the last 4
35	Lille	4	0	1	3	-6	1	Lille won 0 of the last 4
36	Slovan Bratislava	4	0	0	4	-16	0	Slovan Bratislava won 0 of the last 4