UEFA Champions League · Review

UEFA Champions League league phase matchday 3 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every UEFA Champions League result from league phase matchday 3 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 22 Oct 2026, updated 22 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

UEFA Champions League, league phase matchday 3 (20–21 October 2026), is complete: 18 matches, 74 goals (4.11 a game), eleven home wins, three draws and four away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of the 18 and both teams scored in 13.

The result the model rated least likely was the draw in Bayern München v Arsenal (2–2), which it had at 18%; the one it rated most likely was AS Roma's win in AS Roma v Slovan Bratislava (4–0), at 71%.

Match by match

Fenerbahçe 2–2 Slavia PrahaTue 20 Oct, 17:45

Before kick-off the model had Fenerbahçe 47%, the draw 22% and Slavia Praha 31%, with Fenerbahçe favoured; it put the draw at 22%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.15–1.55: Slavia Praha created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 71%, came in.

Sabah FA 1–2 Borussia DortmundTue 20 Oct, 17:45

Before kick-off the model had Sabah FA 30%, the draw 24% and Borussia Dortmund 46%, so Borussia Dortmund winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.53–3.75: Borussia Dortmund created the better chances. The headline call, Borussia Dortmund to win at 46%, came in.

AS Roma 4–0 Slovan BratislavaTue 20 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had AS Roma 71%, the draw 17% and Slovan Bratislava 12%, so AS Roma winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-0. Expected goals were 3.19–0.04: AS Roma created the better chances. The headline call, AS Roma to win at 71%, came in.

FC Porto 0–1 PSV EindhovenTue 20 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had FC Porto 53%, the draw 21% and PSV Eindhoven 26%, with FC Porto favoured; it put PSV Eindhoven winning at 26%. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 1.48–1.69: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 71%, did not come in. Picks published: Over 3.5 at 2.47 — lost; FC Porto -0.5 at 1.75 — lost.

Liverpool 4–3 VillarrealTue 20 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Liverpool 49%, the draw 21% and Villarreal 30%, so Liverpool winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 2.41–1.62: Liverpool created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 73%, came in. Pick published: Over 3.5 at 2.32 — won.

Manchester City 5–1 AEK Athens FCTue 20 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Manchester City 51%, the draw 24% and AEK Athens FC 25%, so Manchester City winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.82–1.23: Manchester City created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 60%, came in. Pick published: Under 3.5 at 2.14 (free pick) — lost.

Napoli 4–3 Bodo/GlimtTue 20 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Napoli 34%, the draw 25% and Bodo/Glimt 41%, with Bodo/Glimt favoured; it put Napoli winning at 34%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.57–2.69: Bodo/Glimt created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, both teams to score at 62%, came in. Pick published: Napoli -1 at 1.95 — void.

Paris Saint Germain 4–2 BarcelonaTue 20 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Paris Saint Germain 36%, the draw 22% and Barcelona 42%, with Barcelona favoured; it put Paris Saint Germain winning at 36%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 3.74–2.25: Paris Saint Germain created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 72%, came in. Pick published: Paris Saint Germain -0.5 at 2.37 — won.

VfB Stuttgart 1–1 Atletico MadridTue 20 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had VfB Stuttgart 44%, the draw 24% and Atletico Madrid 32%, with VfB Stuttgart favoured; it put the draw at 24%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 1.63–0.91: VfB Stuttgart created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 65%, came in. Pick published: VfB Stuttgart at 3.00 — lost.

Como 4–1 Manchester UnitedWed 21 Oct, 17:45

Before kick-off the model had Como 52%, the draw 22% and Manchester United 26%, so Como winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 2.12–1.11: Como created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 68%, came in. Picks published: Over 2.5 at 1.80 — won; Manchester United +0.25 at 2.46 — lost.

Lille 2–4 GalatasarayWed 21 Oct, 17:45

Before kick-off the model had Lille 42%, the draw 23% and Galatasaray 35%, with Lille favoured; it put Galatasaray winning at 35%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.92–1.66: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 68%, came in. Pick published: Over 2.5 at 1.80 — won.

Aston Villa 3–1 VikingWed 21 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Aston Villa 36%, the draw 22% and Viking 42%, with Viking favoured; it put Aston Villa winning at 36%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.75–0.81: Aston Villa created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 72%, came in. Pick published: Both teams to score — Yes at 1.70 — won.

Bayern München 2–2 ArsenalWed 21 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Bayern München 64%, the draw 18% and Arsenal 18%, with Bayern München favoured; it put the draw at 18%. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 2.55–1.42: Bayern München created the better chances. The headline call, over 2.5 goals at 78%, came in. Picks published: Over 2.5 at 1.67 — won; Bayern München 0 at 1.63 — void.

Club Brugge KV 3–0 LensWed 21 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Club Brugge KV 54%, the draw 19% and Lens 27%, so Club Brugge KV winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 2.54–2.14: Club Brugge KV created the better chances. The headline call, over 2.5 goals at 81%, came in. Picks published: Over 2.5 at 1.65 (free pick) — won; Lens +0.25 at 2.78 — lost.

Inter 1–0 Shakhtar DonetskWed 21 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Inter 61%, the draw 19% and Shakhtar Donetsk 21%, so Inter winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 1.09–0.61: Inter created the better chances. The headline call, over 2.5 goals at 77%, did not come in. Pick published: Both teams to score — Yes at 1.80 — lost.

Real Betis 1–0 FeyenoordWed 21 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Real Betis 45%, the draw 22% and Feyenoord 33%, so Real Betis winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.04–0.81: Real Betis created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 70%, did not come in. Pick published: Real Betis -0.75 at 1.65 — half won.

Real Madrid 4–1 RB LeipzigWed 21 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Real Madrid 54%, the draw 22% and RB Leipzig 24%, so Real Madrid winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 2.95–1.46: Real Madrid created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 66%, came in. Pick published: Under 2.5 at 3.80 — lost.

Sporting CP 2–3 Lask LinzWed 21 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Sporting CP 62%, the draw 19% and Lask Linz 19%, with Sporting CP favoured; it put Lask Linz winning at 19%. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 3.20–1.14: Sporting CP created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, over 2.5 goals at 75%, came in.

The numbers this season

UEFA Champions League has averaged 3.27 goals a game over 144 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 60% of them and both sides scoring in 57%. Home sides have won 53% of matches, 21% have been drawn and away sides have won 26%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.