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UEFA Champions League predictions: league phase matchday 4 (3–4 November 2026)

Every UEFA Champions League match in league phase matchday 4 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 27 Oct 2026, updated 28 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

UEFA Champions League, league phase matchday 4: 18 matches, played across 3–4 November 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Lask Linz, 71% to beat Slovan Bratislava at home; the most evenly balanced game is Slavia Praha v Arsenal (Slavia Praha 38%, draw 23%, Arsenal 40%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Barcelona v Aston Villa, at 4.80; the tightest looks Borussia Dortmund v Real Betis, at 3.13.

The numbers this season

UEFA Champions League has averaged 3.27 goals a game over 144 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 60% of them and both sides scoring in 57%. Home sides have won 53% of matches, 21% have been drawn and away sides have won 26%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Galatasaray v VfB StuttgartTue 3 Nov, 17:45

Our model makes Galatasaray 41%, the draw 22% and VfB Stuttgart 37%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.76 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 72%. The headline call is both teams to score at 72%. Galatasaray are 1st on 22 points from 9; VfB Stuttgart are 15th on 6 points from 7. Galatasaray have won four of their last five; VfB Stuttgart have won one of their last five.

Shakhtar Donetsk v Sporting CPTue 3 Nov, 17:45

Our model makes Shakhtar Donetsk 33%, the draw 23% and Sporting CP 44%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.44 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 67%. The headline call is both teams to score at 67%. Shakhtar Donetsk are 17th on 4 points from 3; Sporting CP are 3rd on 18 points from 9. Shakhtar Donetsk have won one of their last three; Sporting CP have won two of their last five.

Atletico Madrid v Bayern MünchenTue 3 Nov, 20:00

Our model makes Atletico Madrid 28%, the draw 21% and Bayern München 51%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (8%), 3.96 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 73%. The headline call is Bayern München to win at 51%. Atletico Madrid are 2nd on 25 points from 10; Bayern München are 1st on 17 points from 7. Atletico Madrid have won all of their last five; Bayern München are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw).

Barcelona v Aston VillaTue 3 Nov, 20:00

Our model makes Barcelona 67%, the draw 16% and Aston Villa 18%. The likeliest score is 3-1 (7%), 4.80 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 86%, both teams to score 78%. The headline call is over 3.5 goals at 71%. Barcelona are 1st on 27 points from 10; Aston Villa are 9th on 11 points from 8. Barcelona have won four of their last five; Aston Villa have won three of their last five.

Bodo/Glimt v LilleTue 3 Nov, 20:00

Our model makes Bodo/Glimt 64%, the draw 19% and Lille 16%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.57 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is Bodo/Glimt to win at 64%. Bodo/Glimt are 2nd on 56 points from 24; Lille are 3rd on 15 points from 8. Bodo/Glimt have won three of their last five; Lille have won two of their last five.

Feyenoord v InterTue 3 Nov, 20:00

Our model makes Feyenoord 38%, the draw 20% and Inter 41%. The likeliest score is 2-2 (7%), 4.41 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 82%, both teams to score 79%. The headline call is both teams to score at 79%. Feyenoord are 1st on 24 points from 10; Inter are 2nd on 22 points from 8. Feyenoord are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw); Inter are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw).

Lask Linz v Slovan BratislavaTue 3 Nov, 20:00

Our model makes Lask Linz 71%, the draw 16% and Slovan Bratislava 13%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.93 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 65%. The headline call is Lask Linz to win at 71%. Lask Linz are 3rd on 19 points from 10; Slovan Bratislava are 36th on 0 points from 3. Lask Linz have won one of their last five; Slovan Bratislava are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats).

Manchester United v AS RomaTue 3 Nov, 20:00

Our model makes Manchester United 34%, the draw 21% and AS Roma 46%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (8%), 4.12 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 76%. The headline call is AS Roma to win at 46%. Manchester United are 16th on 7 points from 8; AS Roma are 3rd on 21 points from 9. Manchester United are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats); AS Roma are unbeaten in five (two wins, three draws).

Villarreal v Paris Saint GermainTue 3 Nov, 20:00

Our model makes Villarreal 27%, the draw 21% and Paris Saint Germain 53%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (8%), 3.93 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 73%. The headline call is Paris Saint Germain to win at 53%. Villarreal are 10th on 12 points from 10; Paris Saint Germain are 1st on 17 points from 8. Villarreal have won three of their last five; Paris Saint Germain have won all of their last five.

AEK Athens FC v Real MadridWed 4 Nov, 17:45

Our model makes AEK Athens FC 36%, the draw 23% and Real Madrid 41%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.61 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 70%. The headline call is both teams to score at 70%. AEK Athens FC are 3rd on 17 points from 7; Real Madrid are 3rd on 24 points from 10. AEK Athens FC are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw); Real Madrid have won four of their last five.

Fenerbahçe v LiverpoolWed 4 Nov, 17:45

Our model makes Fenerbahçe 46%, the draw 20% and Liverpool 34%. The likeliest score is 2-2 (7%), 4.38 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 79%. The headline call is both teams to score at 79%. Fenerbahçe are 5th on 16 points from 9; Liverpool are 4th on 15 points from 8. Fenerbahçe have won three of their last five; Liverpool have won three of their last five.

Borussia Dortmund v Real BetisWed 4 Nov, 20:00

Our model makes Borussia Dortmund 50%, the draw 24% and Real Betis 26%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.13 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is both teams to score at 61%. Borussia Dortmund are 2nd on 17 points from 7; Real Betis are 4th on 20 points from 10. Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); Real Betis have won two of their last five.

FC Porto v NapoliWed 4 Nov, 20:00

Our model makes FC Porto 58%, the draw 22% and Napoli 20%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.20 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is FC Porto to win at 58%. FC Porto are 1st on 27 points from 9; Napoli are 10th on 11 points from 8. FC Porto have won all of their last five; Napoli have won two of their last five.

Lens v ComoWed 4 Nov, 20:00

Our model makes Lens 36%, the draw 22% and Como 42%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (8%), 3.89 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 74%. The headline call is both teams to score at 74%. Lens are 7th on 13 points from 8; Como are 4th on 20 points from 9. Lens have won three of their last five; Como have won three of their last five.

PSV Eindhoven v Club Brugge KVWed 4 Nov, 20:00

Our model makes PSV Eindhoven 42%, the draw 20% and Club Brugge KV 39%. The likeliest score is 2-2 (7%), 4.54 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 83%, both teams to score 81%. The headline call is over 3.5 goals at 66%. PSV Eindhoven are 3rd on 20 points from 10; Club Brugge KV are 2nd on 24 points from 9. PSV Eindhoven have won two of their last five; Club Brugge KV have won all of their last five.

RB Leipzig v Manchester CityWed 4 Nov, 20:00

Our model makes RB Leipzig 30%, the draw 21% and Manchester City 49%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (8%), 4.06 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 75%. The headline call is Manchester City to win at 49%. RB Leipzig are 5th on 12 points from 7; Manchester City are 1st on 21 points from 8. RB Leipzig have won three of their last five; Manchester City have won four of their last five.

Slavia Praha v ArsenalWed 4 Nov, 20:00

Our model makes Slavia Praha 38%, the draw 23% and Arsenal 40%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.65 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 71%. The headline call is both teams to score at 71%. Slavia Praha are 1st on 28 points from 12; Arsenal are 2nd on 21 points from 8. Slavia Praha are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); Arsenal have won four of their last five.

Viking v Sabah FAWed 4 Nov, 20:00

Our model makes Viking 60%, the draw 20% and Sabah FA 20%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.70 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 67%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 72%. Viking are 1st on 59 points from 24; Sabah FA are 25th on 3 points from 3. Viking have won all of their last five; Sabah FA have won two of their last five.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

A pick is published only where the best available price stands clear of the model's probability and the market's consensus together; most fixtures get none. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.