Lens v Como

11th1–95th

20:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Lens		Como
11	Shots	18
3	Shots on target	12
5	Corners	5
12	Fouls	11
2	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	1
471	Passes	646
43%	Possession %	57%
0.85	xG	4.33

Over 1.5: 90%
Over 2.5: 75%
Over 3.5: 55%
Both score: 74%

Model pick: Como 42%
Likely score: 1-1 8%
Expected goals: 1.86 – 2.03

Advised bets

Won

Free pick

Como +0.25

1.94Marathonbet · fair 1.73 · qualifies at 1.78+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Como +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.94 with Marathonbet — Como starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 60% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 56%; we judge it at 58%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.73. The offered 1.94 implies only 52%, so the price is 11.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Lens 1.86, Como 2.03.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Over 3.5

2.35Marathonbet · fair 2.14 · qualifies at 2.23+ · 1.79u

Why this price?

Back over 3.5 goals at 2.35 with Marathonbet — 4 goals or more in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 55% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 41%; we judge it at 47%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.14. The offered 2.35 implies only 43%, so the price is 9.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.79 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Lens 1.86, Como 2.03.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Lens	35.9%	2.79	3.90 Betano	25.6%	+10.3
Match result	Draw	21.7%	4.60	4.00 BetVictor	25.0%	-3.3
Match result	Como	42.4%	2.36	2.25 Betfair	44.4%	-2.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	90.4%	1.11	1.19 Betano	84.0%	+6.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	9.6%	10.42	5.20 Betfair	19.2%	-9.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	74.6%	1.34	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	+12.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	25.4%	3.93	2.62 Bet365	38.2%	-12.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	54.5%	1.83	2.40 Betano	41.7%	+12.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	45.5%	2.20	1.65 Betano	60.6%	-15.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	73.8%	1.36	1.53 William Hill	65.4%	+8.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	26.2%	3.81	2.70 BetVictor	37.0%	-10.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Como favoured against Lens

Our model makes Lens 36% to win this UEFA Champions League fixture, with the draw at 22% and Como at 42%. The goal projection is 1.86 for Lens against 2.03 for Como — a slight edge to Como on expected output. A combined 3.89 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 75% and both teams to score at 74%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 8%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 8%; 1-2 8%; 2-2 7%; 2-1 7%; 1-3 5%

This season

Season records for Lens and Como
Lens		Como
10	Played	11
4-1-5	W-D-L	7-2-2
1.30	Pts / game	2.09
1.70	Goals for / game	1.64
1.50	Goals against / game	0.91
80%	Over 2.5	45%
80%	BTTS	55%
0%	Clean sheets	27%
20%	Failed to score	27%
3-0-2	Home record	3-1-0
1-1-3	Away record	4-1-2
L2	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Lens · Como

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.1	Shots	17.0
4.7	Shots on target	6.2
5.2	Corners	5.4
1.79	Cards	1.36
12.3	Fouls	9.5
48	Possession %	60
1.37	xG	1.98
9 matches	sample	11 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.2	Shots	12.5
5.7	Shots on target	3.7
4.2	Corners	4.6
1.22	Cards	2.03
11.0	Fouls	11.8
52	Possession %	40
1.90	xG	1.15
9 matches	sample	11 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Lens	Metric	Como
1.40	Goals scored	2.80 (better)
1.60	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
1.54	Expected goals (xG)	1.89 (better)
	Big chances
5.20	Shots on target	6.40 (better)
15.40 (better)	Total shots	14.00
	Touches in opp. box
5.60 (better)	Corners	3.80
52.4	Possession %	57.6 (better)
520	Passes	609 (better)
	Tackles
11.80	Fouls	11.40 (better)
0.60 (better)	Offsides	1.40
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	1.80 (better)
0.33	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Lens wins: 0
Draws: 0
Como wins: 1
Goals / game: 10.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Lens v Como1–92026-11-04

UEFA Champions League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Paris Saint Germain	4	4	0	0	+15	12	Paris Saint Germain won 4 of the last 4
2	Real Madrid	4	4	0	0	+6	12	Real Madrid won 4 of the last 4
3	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	+5	10	Arsenal won 3 of the last 4
4	Como	4	3	0	1	+13	9	Como won 3 of the last 4
5	Barcelona	4	3	0	1	+8	9	Barcelona won 3 of the last 4
6	Aston Villa	4	3	0	1	+6	9	Aston Villa won 3 of the last 4
7	Manchester City	4	3	0	1	+5	9	Manchester City won 3 of the last 4
8	Liverpool	4	3	0	1	+4	9	Liverpool won 3 of the last 4
9	Club Brugge KV	4	3	0	1	+4	9	Club Brugge KV won 3 of the last 4
10	Sporting CP	4	3	0	1	+4	9	Sporting CP won 3 of the last 4
11	Real Betis	4	3	0	1	+2	9	Real Betis won 3 of the last 4
12	Borussia Dortmund	4	3	0	1	+2	9	Borussia Dortmund won 3 of the last 4
13	Bayern München	4	2	2	0	+7	8	Bayern München won 2 of the last 4
14	VfB Stuttgart	4	2	1	1	+3	7	VfB Stuttgart won 2 of the last 4
15	Inter	4	2	0	2	+2	6	Inter won 2 of the last 4
16	Lask Linz	4	2	0	2	+1	6	Lask Linz won 2 of the last 4
17	Manchester United	4	2	0	2	0	6	Manchester United won 2 of the last 4
18	Galatasaray	4	2	0	2	-1	6	Galatasaray won 2 of the last 4
19	Fenerbahçe	4	1	2	1	-5	5	Fenerbahçe won 1 of the last 4
20	AS Roma	4	1	1	2	+2	4	AS Roma won 1 of the last 4
21	Shakhtar Donetsk	4	1	1	2	0	4	Shakhtar Donetsk won 1 of the last 4
22	Viking	4	1	1	2	-1	4	Viking won 1 of the last 4
23	Atletico Madrid	4	1	1	2	-1	4	Atletico Madrid won 1 of the last 4
24	PSV Eindhoven	4	1	1	2	-1	4	PSV Eindhoven won 1 of the last 4
25	Bodo/Glimt	4	1	1	2	-5	4	Bodo/Glimt won 1 of the last 4
26	FC Porto	4	1	0	3	-1	3	FC Porto won 1 of the last 4
27	Napoli	4	1	0	3	-5	3	Napoli won 1 of the last 4
28	Villarreal	4	1	0	3	-6	3	Villarreal won 1 of the last 4
29	AEK Athens FC	4	1	0	3	-6	3	AEK Athens FC won 1 of the last 4
30	RB Leipzig	4	1	0	3	-6	3	RB Leipzig won 1 of the last 4
31	Sabah FA	4	1	0	3	-6	3	Sabah FA won 1 of the last 4
32	Feyenoord	4	1	0	3	-7	3	Feyenoord won 1 of the last 4
33	Lens	4	1	0	3	-12	3	Lens won 1 of the last 4
34	Slavia Praha	4	0	1	3	-4	1	Slavia Praha won 0 of the last 4
35	Lille	4	0	1	3	-6	1	Lille won 0 of the last 4
36	Slovan Bratislava	4	0	0	4	-16	0	Slovan Bratislava won 0 of the last 4