Bodo/Glimt v 
Lille
Match statistics
| Bodo/Glimt | Lille | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 3 | Offsides | 0 |
| 559 | Passes | 536 |
| 51% | Possession % | 49% |
| 0.69 | xG | 0.61 |
- Over 1.5
- 88%
- Over 2.5
- 69%
- Over 3.5
- 48%
- Both score
- 63%
- Model pick
- Bodo/Glimt 64%
- Likely score
- 2-1 9%
- Expected goals
- 2.41 – 1.16
Advised bets
Half lostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Bodo/Glimt -0.25
Why this price?
Back Bodo/Glimt -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.62 with Bet365 — Bodo/Glimt must win by more than 0.25 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 71% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 67%; we judge it at 69%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.46. The offered 1.62 implies only 62%, so the price is 11.2% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Bodo/Glimt 2.41, Lille 1.16.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Bodo/Glimt | 64.5% | 1.55 | 1.88 Dafabet | 53.2% | +11.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 19.1% | 5.25 | 4.50 Dafabet | 22.2% | -3.2 |
| Match result | Lille | 16.5% | 6.07 | 5.00 Bet365 | 20.0% | -3.5 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 87.5% | 1.14 | 1.15 Betano | 87.0% | +0.6 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 12.5% | 8.01 | 6.00 Bet365 | 16.7% | -4.2 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 69.2% | 1.45 | 1.50 Bet365 | 66.7% | +2.5 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 30.8% | 3.24 | 2.82 Betano | 35.5% | -4.6 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 47.8% | 2.09 | 2.15 Betano | 46.5% | +1.3 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 52.2% | 1.92 | 1.78 Betano | 56.2% | -4.0 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 62.9% | 1.59 | 1.50 Bet365 | 66.7% | -3.7 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 37.1% | 2.70 | 2.70 William Hill | 37.0% | +0.0 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Bodo/Glimt favoured against Lille
Our model makes Bodo/Glimt 64% to win this UEFA Champions League fixture, with the draw at 19% and Lille at 16%. The goal projection is 2.41 for Bodo/Glimt against 1.16 for Lille — a commanding edge to Bodo/Glimt on expected output. A combined 3.57 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 69% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Bodo/Glimt is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 36% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 2-1 9%
- 1-1 8%
- 2-0 8%
- 3-1 8%
- 3-0 7%
This season
| Bodo/Glimt | Lille | |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | Played | 10 |
| 20-2-4 | W-D-L | 6-3-1 |
| 2.38 | Pts / game | 2.10 |
| 2.42 | Goals for / game | 1.40 |
| 0.88 | Goals against / game | 0.70 |
| 69% | Over 2.5 | 30% |
| 42% | BTTS | 50% |
| 46% | Clean sheets | 50% |
| 12% | Failed to score | 0% |
| 11-0-2 | Home record | 3-2-0 |
| 9-2-2 | Away record | 3-1-1 |
| W2 | Streak | W2 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Bodo/Glimt · Lille
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 15.1 | Shots | 11.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 3.7 |
| 5.2 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 0.56 | Cards | 1.90 |
| 9.9 | Fouls | 11.0 |
| 57 | Possession % | 51 |
| 1.99 | xG | 1.21 |
| 9 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Conceded
| 11.0 | Shots | 11.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.8 | Shots on target | 3.9 |
| 3.3 | Corners | 4.2 |
| 2.13 | Cards | 1.68 |
| 10.2 | Fouls | 13.6 |
| 43 | Possession % | 49 |
| 1.06 | xG | 1.34 |
| 9 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Form comparison
| Bodo/Glimt | Metric | Lille |
|---|---|---|
| 1.80 (better) | Goals scored | 1.00 |
| 1.20 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.80 |
| 2.51 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.31 |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.60 (better) | Shots on target | 2.60 |
| 18.80 (better) | Total shots | 9.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.80 (better) | Corners | 2.60 |
| 61.8 (better) | Possession % | 49.6 |
| 656 (better) | Passes | 467 |
| Tackles | ||
| 7.60 (better) | Fouls | 12.00 |
| 1.25 (better) | Offsides | 3.60 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 0.60 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.20 |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 0.25 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Bodo/Glimt wins
- 0
- Draws
- 1
- Lille wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 0.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 0%
- Bodo/Glimt v Lille0–02026-11-03
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +15 | 12 | Paris Saint Germain won 4 of the last 4 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 12 | Real Madrid won 4 of the last 4 |
| 3 | Arsenal | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 10 | Arsenal won 3 of the last 4 |
| 4 | Como | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +13 | 9 | Como won 3 of the last 4 |
| 5 | Barcelona | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +8 | 9 | Barcelona won 3 of the last 4 |
| 6 | Aston Villa | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +6 | 9 | Aston Villa won 3 of the last 4 |
| 7 | Manchester City | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +5 | 9 | Manchester City won 3 of the last 4 |
| 8 | Liverpool | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 9 | Liverpool won 3 of the last 4 |
| 9 | Club Brugge KV | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 9 | Club Brugge KV won 3 of the last 4 |
| 10 | Sporting CP | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 9 | Sporting CP won 3 of the last 4 |
| 11 | Real Betis | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 9 | Real Betis won 3 of the last 4 |
| 12 | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 9 | Borussia Dortmund won 3 of the last 4 |
| 13 | Bayern München | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +7 | 8 | Bayern München won 2 of the last 4 |
| 14 | VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 | VfB Stuttgart won 2 of the last 4 |
| 15 | Inter | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 6 | Inter won 2 of the last 4 |
| 16 | Lask Linz | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 6 | Lask Linz won 2 of the last 4 |
| 17 | Manchester United | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | Manchester United won 2 of the last 4 |
| 18 | Galatasaray | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 | Galatasaray won 2 of the last 4 |
| 19 | Fenerbahçe | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -5 | 5 | Fenerbahçe won 1 of the last 4 |
| 20 | AS Roma | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 4 | AS Roma won 1 of the last 4 |
| 21 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | Shakhtar Donetsk won 1 of the last 4 |
| 22 | Viking | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 | Viking won 1 of the last 4 |
| 23 | Atletico Madrid | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 | Atletico Madrid won 1 of the last 4 |
| 24 | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 | PSV Eindhoven won 1 of the last 4 |
| 25 | Bodo/Glimt | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 4 | Bodo/Glimt won 1 of the last 4 |
| 26 | FC Porto | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 3 | FC Porto won 1 of the last 4 |
| 27 | Napoli | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 | Napoli won 1 of the last 4 |
| 28 | Villarreal | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 | Villarreal won 1 of the last 4 |
| 29 | AEK Athens FC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 | AEK Athens FC won 1 of the last 4 |
| 30 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 | RB Leipzig won 1 of the last 4 |
| 31 | Sabah FA | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 | Sabah FA won 1 of the last 4 |
| 32 | Feyenoord | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 3 | Feyenoord won 1 of the last 4 |
| 33 | Lens | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -12 | 3 | Lens won 1 of the last 4 |
| 34 | Slavia Praha | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 | Slavia Praha won 0 of the last 4 |
| 35 | Lille | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 | Lille won 0 of the last 4 |
| 36 | Slovan Bratislava | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -16 | 0 | Slovan Bratislava won 0 of the last 4 |