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UEFA Champions League predictions

Every UEFA Champions League match in the next 14 days with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score and one headline call, published at least 24 hours before kick-off. The table, team statistics and results are on the UEFA Champions League page.

18 matches in the next 14 days, every one with a forecast published. The strongest favourite is AS Roma, 71% against Slovan Bratislava at home; the most evenly balanced game is Paris Saint Germain v Barcelona (Paris Saint Germain 36%, draw 22%, Barcelona 42%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Club Brugge KV v Lens, at 4.38.

Every match, one prediction

Tue 20 Oct

UEFA Champions League9Prediction

Wed 21 Oct

UEFA Champions League9Prediction

21 more member picks on these UEFA Champions League matches, with the price, stake and reasoning.Unlock every pick →

Match by match

Sabah FA v Borussia DortmundTue 20 Oct, 17:45

Our model makes Sabah FA 30%, the draw 24% and Borussia Dortmund 46%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.16 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is Borussia Dortmund to win at 46%. Sabah FA are 22nd on 3 points from 2; Borussia Dortmund are 2nd on 13 points from 5. Sabah FA have won three of their last five; Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw).

Fenerbahçe v Slavia PrahaTue 20 Oct, 17:45

Our model makes Fenerbahçe 47%, the draw 22% and Slavia Praha 31%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.73 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 71%. The headline call is both teams to score at 71%. Fenerbahçe are 4th on 13 points from 7; Slavia Praha are 1st on 26 points from 10. Fenerbahçe have won three of their last five; Slavia Praha have won all of their last five.

FC Porto v PSV EindhovenTue 20 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes FC Porto 53%, the draw 21% and PSV Eindhoven 26%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.78 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 71%. The headline call is both teams to score at 71%. FC Porto are 1st on 24 points from 8; PSV Eindhoven are 2nd on 19 points from 8. FC Porto have won all of their last five; PSV Eindhoven have won four of their last five.

Manchester City v AEK Athens FCTue 20 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Manchester City 51%, the draw 24% and AEK Athens FC 25%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.05 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is both teams to score at 60%. Manchester City are 1st on 18 points from 6; AEK Athens FC are 2nd on 14 points from 6. Manchester City have won all of their last five; AEK Athens FC are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws).

VfB Stuttgart v Atletico MadridTue 20 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes VfB Stuttgart 44%, the draw 24% and Atletico Madrid 32%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.28 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 65%. The headline call is both teams to score at 65%. VfB Stuttgart are 11th on 6 points from 5; Atletico Madrid are 2nd on 19 points from 8. VfB Stuttgart have won two of their last five; Atletico Madrid have won four of their last five.

Paris Saint Germain v BarcelonaTue 20 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Paris Saint Germain 36%, the draw 22% and Barcelona 42%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.75 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 72%. The headline call is both teams to score at 72%. Paris Saint Germain are 6th on 11 points from 6; Barcelona are 1st on 24 points from 8. Paris Saint Germain have won three of their last five; Barcelona have won all of their last five.

Liverpool v VillarrealTue 20 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Liverpool 49%, the draw 21% and Villarreal 30%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (8%), 3.92 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 73%. The headline call is both teams to score at 73%. Liverpool are 9th on 9 points from 6; Villarreal are 11th on 8 points from 8. Liverpool have won two of their last five; Villarreal have won two of their last five.

Napoli v Bodo/GlimtTue 20 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Napoli 34%, the draw 25% and Bodo/Glimt 41%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.10 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is both teams to score at 62%. Napoli are 8th on 10 points from 6; Bodo/Glimt are 1st on 53 points from 22. Napoli have won two of their last five; Bodo/Glimt have won four of their last five.

AS Roma v Slovan BratislavaTue 20 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes AS Roma 71%, the draw 17% and Slovan Bratislava 12%. The likeliest score is 2-0 (10%), 3.50 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 57%. The headline call is AS Roma to win at 71%. AS Roma are 3rd on 14 points from 6; Slovan Bratislava are 36th on 0 points from 2. AS Roma are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); Slovan Bratislava have won one of their last five.

Lille v GalatasarayWed 21 Oct, 17:45

Our model makes Lille 42%, the draw 23% and Galatasaray 35%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.48 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 68%. The headline call is both teams to score at 68%. Lille are 2nd on 13 points from 6; Galatasaray are 1st on 16 points from 7. Lille have won three of their last five; Galatasaray have won four of their last five.

Como v Manchester UnitedWed 21 Oct, 17:45

Our model makes Como 52%, the draw 22% and Manchester United 26%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.55 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 68%. The headline call is both teams to score at 68%. Como are 7th on 11 points from 6; Manchester United are 13th on 6 points from 6. Como have won three of their last five; Manchester United have won one of their last five.

Bayern München v ArsenalWed 21 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Bayern München 64%, the draw 18% and Arsenal 18%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (8%), 4.14 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 71%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 78%. Bayern München are 3rd on 11 points from 5; Arsenal are 2nd on 15 points from 6. Bayern München are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); Arsenal have won four of their last five.

Aston Villa v VikingWed 21 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Aston Villa 36%, the draw 22% and Viking 42%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.76 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 72%. The headline call is both teams to score at 72%. Aston Villa are 16th on 5 points from 6; Viking are 2nd on 53 points from 22. Aston Villa have won one of their last five; Viking are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw).

Real Betis v FeyenoordWed 21 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Real Betis 45%, the draw 22% and Feyenoord 33%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.66 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 70%. The headline call is both teams to score at 70%. Real Betis are 3rd on 19 points from 8; Feyenoord are 1st on 20 points from 8. Real Betis are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw); Feyenoord are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw).

Club Brugge KV v LensWed 21 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Club Brugge KV 54%, the draw 19% and Lens 27%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (7%), 4.38 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 77%. The headline call is over 3.5 goals at 64%. Club Brugge KV are 2nd on 21 points from 8; Lens are 10th on 7 points from 6. Club Brugge KV have won four of their last five; Lens have won one of their last five.

Inter v Shakhtar DonetskWed 21 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Inter 61%, the draw 19% and Shakhtar Donetsk 21%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (8%), 4.08 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 72%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 77%. Inter are 1st on 16 points from 6; Shakhtar Donetsk are 11th on 4 points from 2. Inter are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw).

Real Madrid v RB LeipzigWed 21 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Real Madrid 54%, the draw 22% and RB Leipzig 24%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.48 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 66%. The headline call is both teams to score at 66%. Real Madrid are 4th on 18 points from 8; RB Leipzig are 5th on 9 points from 5. Real Madrid have won three of their last five; RB Leipzig have won three of their last five.

Sporting CP v Lask LinzWed 21 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Sporting CP 62%, the draw 19% and Lask Linz 19%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.95 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 70%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 75%. Sporting CP are 3rd on 18 points from 8; Lask Linz are 3rd on 16 points from 8. Sporting CP are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); Lask Linz have won two of their last five.

The numbers this season

UEFA Champions League has averaged 3.15 goals a game over 126 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 57% of them and both sides scoring in 55%. Home sides have won 52% of matches, 21% have been drawn and away sides have won 27%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these predictions

How are UEFA Champions League predictions made?
A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.
When are UEFA Champions League predictions published?
At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.
How often do home teams win in UEFA Champions League?
52% of matches this season, over 126 played, with 21% drawn and 27% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 3.15 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 57%.

The method in full is under how it works; the model is explained on its own page. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.

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