UEFA Champions League · Review

UEFA Champions League league phase matchday 2 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every UEFA Champions League result from league phase matchday 2 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 16 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

UEFA Champions League, league phase matchday 2 (13–14 October 2026), is complete: 18 matches, 78 goals (4.33 a game), ten home wins, one draw and seven away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of the 18 and both teams scored in ten.

The result the model rated least likely was the draw in Viking v Bayern München (3–3), which it had at 20%; the one it rated most likely was Arsenal's win in Arsenal v Lille (3–0), at 60%.

Match by match

Lens 0–2 Sporting CPTue 13 Oct, 17:45

Before kick-off the model had Lens 37%, the draw 21% and Sporting CP 41%, so Sporting CP winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.79–1.73: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 75%, did not come in. Pick published: Lens -0.5 at 2.39 — lost.

Sabah FA 2–0 Slavia PrahaTue 13 Oct, 17:45

Before kick-off the model had Sabah FA 32%, the draw 22% and Slavia Praha 47%, with Slavia Praha favoured; it put Sabah FA winning at 32%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.51–2.06: Slavia Praha created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, Slavia Praha to win at 47%, did not come in. Pick published: Sabah FA -0.25 at 3.05 — won.

Arsenal 3–0 LilleTue 13 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Arsenal 60%, the draw 21% and Lille 19%, so Arsenal winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 1.89–0.40: Arsenal created the better chances. The headline call, Arsenal to win at 60%, came in.

Atletico Madrid 2–0 Manchester UnitedTue 13 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Atletico Madrid 46%, the draw 22% and Manchester United 32%, so Atletico Madrid winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.50–1.04: Atletico Madrid created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 71%, did not come in. Pick published: Atletico Madrid -0.25 at 1.95 — won.

Galatasaray 1–4 BarcelonaTue 13 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Galatasaray 22%, the draw 19% and Barcelona 59%, so Barcelona winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-2. Expected goals were 0.47–2.85: Barcelona created the better chances. The headline call, Barcelona to win at 59%, came in. Pick published: Galatasaray +0.75 at 3.30 — lost.

Inter 3–4 Club Brugge KVTue 13 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Inter 51%, the draw 19% and Club Brugge KV 30%, with Inter favoured; it put Club Brugge KV winning at 30%. The likeliest score had been 2-2. Expected goals were 4.01–4.32: Club Brugge KV created the better chances. The headline call, over 3.5 goals at 67%, came in. Pick published: Over 2.5 at 1.52 — won.

RB Leipzig 1–0 PSV EindhovenTue 13 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had RB Leipzig 40%, the draw 20% and PSV Eindhoven 40%, with PSV Eindhoven favoured; it put RB Leipzig winning at 40%. The likeliest score had been 2-2. Expected goals were 2.19–1.46: RB Leipzig created the better chances. The headline call, over 3.5 goals at 63%, did not come in. Picks published: PSV Eindhoven at 3.30 (free pick) — lost; Over 3.5 at 2.02 — lost.

Viking 3–3 Bayern MünchenTue 13 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Viking 26%, the draw 20% and Bayern München 53%, with Bayern München favoured; it put the draw at 20%. The likeliest score had been 1-2. Expected goals were 0.64–3.57: Bayern München created the better chances. The headline call, Bayern München to win at 53%, did not come in. Pick published: Both teams to score — Yes at 1.80 (free pick) — won.

Villarreal 3–1 NapoliTue 13 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Villarreal 43%, the draw 24% and Napoli 33%, so Villarreal winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.42–1.94: Napoli created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, both teams to score at 65%, came in. Pick published: Villarreal -0.25 at 2.00 — won.

Feyenoord 3–2 ComoWed 14 Oct, 17:45

Before kick-off the model had Feyenoord 37%, the draw 22% and Como 40%, with Como favoured; it put Feyenoord winning at 37%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.61–1.30: Como created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, both teams to score at 72%, came in. Pick published: Feyenoord 0 at 2.80 (free pick) — won.

Lask Linz 3–6 LiverpoolWed 14 Oct, 17:45

Before kick-off the model had Lask Linz 49%, the draw 21% and Liverpool 30%, with Lask Linz favoured; it put Liverpool winning at 30%. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 2.06–3.36: Liverpool created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 75%, came in. Pick published: Both teams to score — Yes at 1.75 — won.

AS Roma 3–4 Real MadridWed 14 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had AS Roma 40%, the draw 22% and Real Madrid 38%, with AS Roma favoured; it put Real Madrid winning at 38%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.49–1.49: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 71%, came in. Pick published: Real Madrid +0.25 at 1.75 — won.

Aston Villa 6–0 FenerbahçeWed 14 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Aston Villa 40%, the draw 23% and Fenerbahçe 38%, so Aston Villa winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 3.15–1.75: Aston Villa created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 71%, did not come in. Pick published: Over 3.5 at 2.65 — won.

Bodo/Glimt 1–0 Borussia DortmundWed 14 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Bodo/Glimt 46%, the draw 24% and Borussia Dortmund 30%, so Bodo/Glimt winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.20–0.85: Bodo/Glimt created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 62%, did not come in. Pick published: Bodo/Glimt +0.25 at 2.07 — won.

Manchester City 2–4 Paris Saint GermainWed 14 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Manchester City 51%, the draw 22% and Paris Saint Germain 26%, with Manchester City favoured; it put Paris Saint Germain winning at 26%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.67–1.85: Manchester City created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, both teams to score at 67%, came in. Pick published: Paris Saint Germain +0.25 at 2.43 — won.

Real Betis 3–2 FC PortoWed 14 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Real Betis 29%, the draw 26% and FC Porto 46%, with FC Porto favoured; it put Real Betis winning at 29%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.76–1.02: Real Betis created the better chances. The headline call, FC Porto to win at 46%, did not come in. Pick published: Real Betis -0.5 at 2.20 — won.

Shakhtar Donetsk 3–1 AEK Athens FCWed 14 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Shakhtar Donetsk 30%, the draw 25% and AEK Athens FC 45%, with AEK Athens FC favoured; it put Shakhtar Donetsk winning at 30%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.40–1.36: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 59%, came in. Pick published: Shakhtar Donetsk -0.5 at 2.57 — won.

Slovan Bratislava 0–3 VfB StuttgartWed 14 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Slovan Bratislava 24%, the draw 23% and VfB Stuttgart 52%, so VfB Stuttgart winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.82–2.21: VfB Stuttgart created the better chances. The headline call, VfB Stuttgart to win at 52%, came in.

The numbers this season

UEFA Champions League has averaged 3.15 goals a game over 126 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 57% of them and both sides scoring in 55%. Home sides have won 52% of matches, 21% have been drawn and away sides have won 27%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.