Real Madrid v RB Leipzig

4th5th

19:00 UTC

Over 1.5: 87%
Over 2.5: 68%
Over 3.5: 46%
Both score: 66%

Model pick: Real Madrid 54%
Likely score: 2-1 9%
Expected goals: 2.11 – 1.37

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the marketMembers

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11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.

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A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Real Madrid favoured against RB Leipzig

Our model makes Real Madrid 54% to win this UEFA Champions League fixture, with the draw at 22% and RB Leipzig at 24%. The goal projection is 2.11 for Real Madrid against 1.37 for RB Leipzig — a substantial edge to Real Madrid on expected output. A combined 3.48 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 68% and both teams to score at 66%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-1 9%; 1-1 9%; 2-0 7%; 3-1 7%; 2-2 6%

This season

Season records for Real Madrid and RB Leipzig
Real Madrid		RB Leipzig
8	Played	5
6-0-2	W-D-L	3-0-2
2.25	Pts / game	1.80
2.38	Goals for / game	3.00
1.00	Goals against / game	1.00
75%	Over 2.5	80%
63%	BTTS	20%
25%	Clean sheets	60%
13%	Failed to score	20%
4-0-0	Home record	3-0-0
2-0-2	Away record	0-0-2
W1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Real Madrid · RB Leipzig

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.8	Shots	17.0
4.8	Shots on target	6.3
6.0	Corners	5.0
3.17	Cards	1.67
7.5	Fouls	12.3
44	Possession %	46
1.72	xG	3.14
4 matches	sample	3 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.5	Shots	15.7
5.8	Shots on target	6.7
3.3	Corners	9.0
2.75	Cards	2.33
17.0	Fouls	13.0
56	Possession %	54
1.31	xG	1.49
4 matches	sample	3 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Real Madrid	Metric	RB Leipzig
2.20	Goals scored	2.60 (better)
1.20	Goals conceded	1.20
1.99	Expected goals (xG)	2.41 (better)
	Big chances
6.00 (better)	Shots on target	5.80
15.80	Total shots	16.80 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
6.00 (better)	Corners	5.40
44.2	Possession %	50.6 (better)
425	Passes	473 (better)
	Tackles
8.60 (better)	Fouls	11.60
2.60	Offsides	0.60 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	1.80 (better)
0.67	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to headFull record →

No previous meetings on record.

UEFA Champions League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Paris Saint Germain	2	2	0	0	+7	6	Paris Saint Germain won 2 of the last 2
2	Aston Villa	2	2	0	0	+7	6	Aston Villa won 2 of the last 2
3	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	+7	6	Barcelona won 2 of the last 2
4	VfB Stuttgart	2	2	0	0	+5	6	VfB Stuttgart won 2 of the last 2
5	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+4	6	Liverpool won 2 of the last 2
6	Sporting CP	2	2	0	0	+4	6	Sporting CP won 2 of the last 2
7	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+4	6	Arsenal won 2 of the last 2
8	Real Betis	2	2	0	0	+2	6	Real Betis won 2 of the last 2
9	Real Madrid	2	2	0	0	+2	6	Real Madrid won 2 of the last 2
10	Bayern München	2	1	1	0	+5	4	Bayern München won 1 of the last 2
11	Shakhtar Donetsk	2	1	1	0	+2	4	Shakhtar Donetsk won 1 of the last 2
12	Como	2	1	0	1	+2	3	Como won 1 of the last 2
13	Manchester United	2	1	0	1	+2	3	Manchester United won 1 of the last 2
14	Villarreal	2	1	0	1	+1	3	Villarreal won 1 of the last 2
15	Atletico Madrid	2	1	0	1	+1	3	Atletico Madrid won 1 of the last 2
16	Club Brugge KV	2	1	0	1	0	3	Club Brugge KV won 1 of the last 2
17	Manchester City	2	1	0	1	0	3	Manchester City won 1 of the last 2
18	Borussia Dortmund	2	1	0	1	0	3	Borussia Dortmund won 1 of the last 2
19	Lens	2	1	0	1	-1	3	Lens won 1 of the last 2
20	AEK Athens FC	2	1	0	1	-1	3	AEK Athens FC won 1 of the last 2
21	RB Leipzig	2	1	0	1	-2	3	RB Leipzig won 1 of the last 2
22	Sabah FA	2	1	0	1	-2	3	Sabah FA won 1 of the last 2
23	Feyenoord	2	1	0	1	-3	3	Feyenoord won 1 of the last 2
24	Bodo/Glimt	2	1	0	1	-4	3	Bodo/Glimt won 1 of the last 2
25	AS Roma	2	0	1	1	-1	1	AS Roma won 0 of the last 2
26	PSV Eindhoven	2	0	1	1	-1	1	PSV Eindhoven won 0 of the last 2
27	Viking	2	0	1	1	-2	1	Viking won 0 of the last 2
28	Fenerbahçe	2	0	1	1	-6	1	Fenerbahçe won 0 of the last 2
29	Inter	2	0	0	2	-2	0	Inter won 0 of the last 2
30	FC Porto	2	0	0	2	-3	0	FC Porto won 0 of the last 2
31	Slavia Praha	2	0	0	2	-3	0	Slavia Praha won 0 of the last 2
32	Napoli	2	0	0	2	-3	0	Napoli won 0 of the last 2
33	Lask Linz	2	0	0	2	-4	0	Lask Linz won 0 of the last 2
34	Lille	2	0	0	2	-4	0	Lille won 0 of the last 2
35	Galatasaray	2	0	0	2	-5	0	Galatasaray won 0 of the last 2
36	Slovan Bratislava	2	0	0	2	-8	0	Slovan Bratislava won 0 of the last 2