Slavia Praha v 
Arsenal
Match statistics
| Slavia Praha | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 3 | Offsides | 1 |
| 362 | Passes | 481 |
| 44% | Possession % | 56% |
| 2.19 | xG | 1.55 |
- Over 1.5
- 88%
- Over 2.5
- 71%
- Over 3.5
- 49%
- Both score
- 71%
- Model pick
- Arsenal 40%
- Likely score
- 1-1 9%
- Expected goals
- 1.80 – 1.85
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Both teams to score — Yes
Why this price?
Back both teams to score at 1.91 with Bet365 — each side scores at least once.
Our model puts the chance at 71% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 50%; we judge it at 58%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.72. The offered 1.91 implies only 52%, so the price is 11.2% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Slavia Praha 1.80, Arsenal 1.85.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Arsenal +0.75
Why this price?
Back Arsenal +0.75 on the Asian handicap at 1.38 with Bet365 — Arsenal starts 0.75 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.
Our model puts the chance at 68% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 89%; we judge it at 80%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.24. The offered 1.38 implies only 72%, so the price is 11.0% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Slavia Praha 1.80, Arsenal 1.85.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 88.3% | 1.13 | 1.23 Betano | 81.3% | +7.0 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 11.7% | 8.57 | 5.00 Bet365 | 20.0% | -8.3 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 70.6% | 1.42 | 1.70 Betano | 58.8% | +11.7 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 29.4% | 3.40 | 2.63 Betfair | 38.0% | -8.6 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 49.5% | 2.02 | 2.75 Bet365 | 36.4% | +13.1 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 50.5% | 1.98 | 1.62 Bet365 | 61.7% | -11.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 70.8% | 1.41 | 2.50 Betfair | 40.0% | +30.8 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 29.2% | 3.42 | 1.87 Betfair | 53.5% | -24.2 |
| Match result | Slavia Praha | 37.8% | 2.64 | 14.00 Betfair | 7.1% | +30.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 22.6% | 4.42 | 6.50 Bet365 | 15.4% | +7.3 |
| Match result | Arsenal | 39.5% | 2.53 | 1.33 Bet365 | 75.2% | -35.7 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Slavia Praha v Arsenal: too close to call
Our model makes Slavia Praha 38% to win this UEFA Champions League fixture, with the draw at 23% and Arsenal at 40%. The goal projection is 1.80 for Slavia Praha against 1.85 for Arsenal — almost nothing to Arsenal on expected output. A combined 3.65 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 71% and both teams to score at 71%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 9%
- 1-2 8%
- 2-1 8%
- 2-2 7%
- 1-3 5%
This season
| Slavia Praha | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Played | 10 |
| 10-4-0 | W-D-L | 9-0-1 |
| 2.43 | Pts / game | 2.70 |
| 2.57 | Goals for / game | 1.50 |
| 0.57 | Goals against / game | 0.50 |
| 64% | Over 2.5 | 40% |
| 50% | BTTS | 20% |
| 50% | Clean sheets | 70% |
| 7% | Failed to score | 10% |
| 5-3-0 | Home record | 5-0-0 |
| 5-1-0 | Away record | 4-0-1 |
| W2 | Streak | W5 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Slavia Praha · Arsenal
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 21.6 | Shots | 14.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.1 | Shots on target | 4.9 |
| 7.7 | Corners | 5.8 |
| 1.37 | Cards | 1.56 |
| 12.4 | Fouls | 9.7 |
| 60 | Possession % | 59 |
| 2.09 | xG | 1.58 |
| 9 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Conceded
| 9.7 | Shots | 12.1 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.8 | Shots on target | 3.1 |
| 2.4 | Corners | 4.2 |
| 2.25 | Cards | 2.56 |
| 12.3 | Fouls | 14.7 |
| 40 | Possession % | 41 |
| 0.93 | xG | 1.10 |
| 9 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Form comparison
| Slavia Praha | Metric | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| 1.40 | Goals scored | 1.80 (better) |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded | 0.60 (better) |
| 2.09 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.76 |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.25 (better) | Shots on target | 5.00 |
| 23.00 (better) | Total shots | 17.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 7.50 (better) | Corners | 7.00 |
| 58.8 | Possession % | 60.0 (better) |
| 478 | Passes | 568 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.00 | Fouls | 8.60 (better) |
| 3.00 | Offsides | 1.80 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.50 | Yellow cards | 1.20 (better) |
| 0.33 | Red cards | 0.33 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Slavia Praha wins
- 0
- Draws
- 0
- Arsenal wins
- 2
- Goals / game
- 3.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 50%
- Slavia Praha v Arsenal1–22026-11-04
- Slavia Praha v Arsenal0–32025-11-04
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +15 | 12 | Paris Saint Germain won 4 of the last 4 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 12 | Real Madrid won 4 of the last 4 |
| 3 | Arsenal | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 10 | Arsenal won 3 of the last 4 |
| 4 | Como | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +13 | 9 | Como won 3 of the last 4 |
| 5 | Barcelona | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +8 | 9 | Barcelona won 3 of the last 4 |
| 6 | Aston Villa | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +6 | 9 | Aston Villa won 3 of the last 4 |
| 7 | Manchester City | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +5 | 9 | Manchester City won 3 of the last 4 |
| 8 | Liverpool | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 9 | Liverpool won 3 of the last 4 |
| 9 | Club Brugge KV | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 9 | Club Brugge KV won 3 of the last 4 |
| 10 | Sporting CP | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 9 | Sporting CP won 3 of the last 4 |
| 11 | Real Betis | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 9 | Real Betis won 3 of the last 4 |
| 12 | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 9 | Borussia Dortmund won 3 of the last 4 |
| 13 | Bayern München | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +7 | 8 | Bayern München won 2 of the last 4 |
| 14 | VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 | VfB Stuttgart won 2 of the last 4 |
| 15 | Inter | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 6 | Inter won 2 of the last 4 |
| 16 | Lask Linz | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 6 | Lask Linz won 2 of the last 4 |
| 17 | Manchester United | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | Manchester United won 2 of the last 4 |
| 18 | Galatasaray | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 | Galatasaray won 2 of the last 4 |
| 19 | Fenerbahçe | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -5 | 5 | Fenerbahçe won 1 of the last 4 |
| 20 | AS Roma | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 4 | AS Roma won 1 of the last 4 |
| 21 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | Shakhtar Donetsk won 1 of the last 4 |
| 22 | Viking | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 | Viking won 1 of the last 4 |
| 23 | Atletico Madrid | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 | Atletico Madrid won 1 of the last 4 |
| 24 | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 | PSV Eindhoven won 1 of the last 4 |
| 25 | Bodo/Glimt | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 4 | Bodo/Glimt won 1 of the last 4 |
| 26 | FC Porto | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 3 | FC Porto won 1 of the last 4 |
| 27 | Napoli | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 | Napoli won 1 of the last 4 |
| 28 | Villarreal | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 | Villarreal won 1 of the last 4 |
| 29 | AEK Athens FC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 | AEK Athens FC won 1 of the last 4 |
| 30 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 | RB Leipzig won 1 of the last 4 |
| 31 | Sabah FA | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 | Sabah FA won 1 of the last 4 |
| 32 | Feyenoord | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 3 | Feyenoord won 1 of the last 4 |
| 33 | Lens | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -12 | 3 | Lens won 1 of the last 4 |
| 34 | Slavia Praha | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 | Slavia Praha won 0 of the last 4 |
| 35 | Lille | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 | Lille won 0 of the last 4 |
| 36 | Slovan Bratislava | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -16 | 0 | Slovan Bratislava won 0 of the last 4 |