Atletico Madrid v 
Bayern München
Match statistics
| Atletico Madrid | Bayern München | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Shots | 19 |
| 3 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 3 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 0 | Offsides | 4 |
| 448 | Passes | 636 |
| 42% | Possession % | 58% |
| 1.06 | xG | 1.93 |
- Over 1.5
- 91%
- Over 2.5
- 76%
- Over 3.5
- 56%
- Both score
- 73%
- Model pick
- Bayern München 51%
- Likely score
- 1-2 8%
- Expected goals
- 1.68 – 2.28
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Bayern München +0.25
Why this price?
Back Bayern München +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.71 with Marathonbet — Bayern München starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.
Our model puts the chance at 69% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 62%; we judge it at 65%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.54. The offered 1.71 implies only 58%, so the price is 11.0% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Atletico Madrid 1.68, Bayern München 2.28.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Atletico Madrid | 28.2% | 3.55 | 3.00 Betano | 33.3% | -5.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 20.8% | 4.82 | 4.10 BetVictor | 24.4% | -3.6 |
| Match result | Bayern München | 51.1% | 1.96 | 2.38 Betfair | 42.0% | +9.0 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 90.9% | 1.10 | 1.17 Bet365 | 85.5% | +5.4 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 9.1% | 11.00 | 6.50 BetVictor | 15.4% | -6.3 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 75.6% | 1.32 | 1.53 Bet365 | 65.4% | +10.2 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 24.4% | 4.10 | 3.00 Bet365 | 33.3% | -8.9 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 55.9% | 1.79 | 2.30 Bet365 | 43.5% | +12.4 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 44.1% | 2.27 | 1.80 Bet365 | 55.6% | -11.4 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 73.4% | 1.36 | 1.45 Betano | 69.0% | +4.4 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 26.6% | 3.76 | 3.00 Bet365 | 33.3% | -6.7 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Bayern München favoured against Atletico Madrid
Our model makes Atletico Madrid 28% to win this UEFA Champions League fixture, with the draw at 21% and Bayern München at 51%. The goal projection is 1.68 for Atletico Madrid against 2.28 for Bayern München — a substantial edge to Bayern München on expected output. A combined 3.96 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 76% and both teams to score at 73%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 8%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-2 8%
- 1-1 8%
- 2-2 7%
- 1-3 6%
- 2-1 6%
This season
| Atletico Madrid | Bayern München | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Played | 9 |
| 9-1-2 | W-D-L | 6-3-0 |
| 2.33 | Pts / game | 2.33 |
| 1.92 | Goals for / game | 3.22 |
| 0.83 | Goals against / game | 1.00 |
| 67% | Over 2.5 | 89% |
| 42% | BTTS | 78% |
| 50% | Clean sheets | 22% |
| 8% | Failed to score | 11% |
| 4-1-1 | Home record | 3-1-0 |
| 5-0-1 | Away record | 3-2-0 |
| L1 | Streak | W1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Atletico Madrid · Bayern München
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 15.3 | Shots | 22.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | Shots on target | 9.2 |
| 5.1 | Corners | 7.8 |
| 2.13 | Cards | 1.44 |
| 11.0 | Fouls | 9.9 |
| 55 | Possession % | 61 |
| 1.75 | xG | 3.35 |
| 11 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Conceded
| 12.5 | Shots | 10.7 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | Shots on target | 3.9 |
| 3.9 | Corners | 4.2 |
| 1.74 | Cards | 1.67 |
| 10.0 | Fouls | 8.7 |
| 45 | Possession % | 39 |
| 1.09 | xG | 1.12 |
| 11 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Form comparison
| Atletico Madrid | Metric | Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| 1.40 | Goals scored | 3.20 (better) |
| 0.40 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.80 |
| 1.46 | Expected goals (xG) | 3.46 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.00 | Shots on target | 9.80 (better) |
| 16.40 | Total shots | 22.80 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.20 | Corners | 8.80 (better) |
| 59.4 (better) | Possession % | 59.0 |
| 606 (better) | Passes | 568 |
| Tackles | ||
| 10.40 (better) | Fouls | 11.00 |
| 1.60 (better) | Offsides | 2.60 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.60 | Yellow cards | 1.20 (better) |
| 0.33 | Red cards | 0.33 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Atletico Madrid wins
- 0
- Draws
- 0
- Bayern München wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 0%
- Atletico Madrid v Bayern München0–22026-11-03
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +15 | 12 | Paris Saint Germain won 4 of the last 4 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 12 | Real Madrid won 4 of the last 4 |
| 3 | Arsenal | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 10 | Arsenal won 3 of the last 4 |
| 4 | Como | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +13 | 9 | Como won 3 of the last 4 |
| 5 | Barcelona | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +8 | 9 | Barcelona won 3 of the last 4 |
| 6 | Aston Villa | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +6 | 9 | Aston Villa won 3 of the last 4 |
| 7 | Manchester City | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +5 | 9 | Manchester City won 3 of the last 4 |
| 8 | Liverpool | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 9 | Liverpool won 3 of the last 4 |
| 9 | Club Brugge KV | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 9 | Club Brugge KV won 3 of the last 4 |
| 10 | Sporting CP | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 9 | Sporting CP won 3 of the last 4 |
| 11 | Real Betis | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 9 | Real Betis won 3 of the last 4 |
| 12 | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 9 | Borussia Dortmund won 3 of the last 4 |
| 13 | Bayern München | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +7 | 8 | Bayern München won 2 of the last 4 |
| 14 | VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 | VfB Stuttgart won 2 of the last 4 |
| 15 | Inter | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 6 | Inter won 2 of the last 4 |
| 16 | Lask Linz | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 6 | Lask Linz won 2 of the last 4 |
| 17 | Manchester United | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | Manchester United won 2 of the last 4 |
| 18 | Galatasaray | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 | Galatasaray won 2 of the last 4 |
| 19 | Fenerbahçe | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -5 | 5 | Fenerbahçe won 1 of the last 4 |
| 20 | AS Roma | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 4 | AS Roma won 1 of the last 4 |
| 21 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | Shakhtar Donetsk won 1 of the last 4 |
| 22 | Viking | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 | Viking won 1 of the last 4 |
| 23 | Atletico Madrid | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 | Atletico Madrid won 1 of the last 4 |
| 24 | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 | PSV Eindhoven won 1 of the last 4 |
| 25 | Bodo/Glimt | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 4 | Bodo/Glimt won 1 of the last 4 |
| 26 | FC Porto | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 3 | FC Porto won 1 of the last 4 |
| 27 | Napoli | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 | Napoli won 1 of the last 4 |
| 28 | Villarreal | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 | Villarreal won 1 of the last 4 |
| 29 | AEK Athens FC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 | AEK Athens FC won 1 of the last 4 |
| 30 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 | RB Leipzig won 1 of the last 4 |
| 31 | Sabah FA | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 | Sabah FA won 1 of the last 4 |
| 32 | Feyenoord | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 3 | Feyenoord won 1 of the last 4 |
| 33 | Lens | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -12 | 3 | Lens won 1 of the last 4 |
| 34 | Slavia Praha | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 | Slavia Praha won 0 of the last 4 |
| 35 | Lille | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 | Lille won 0 of the last 4 |
| 36 | Slovan Bratislava | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -16 | 0 | Slovan Bratislava won 0 of the last 4 |