Lask Linz v 
Slovan Bratislava
Match statistics
| Lask Linz | Slovan Bratislava | |
|---|---|---|
| 29 | Shots | 7 |
| 10 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 5 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 5 | Offsides | 1 |
| 548 | Passes | 369 |
| 60% | Possession % | 40% |
| 4.77 | xG | 0.53 |
- Over 1.5
- 91%
- Over 2.5
- 75%
- Over 3.5
- 55%
- Both score
- 65%
- Model pick
- Lask Linz 71%
- Likely score
- 2-1 9%
- Expected goals
- 2.78 – 1.16
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 3 of 5Over 3.5
Why this price?
Back over 3.5 goals at 2.15 with Betano — 4 goals or more in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 55% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 46%; we judge it at 50%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.01. The offered 2.15 implies only 47%, so the price is 6.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.48 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Lask Linz 2.78, Slovan Bratislava 1.16.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Lask Linz | 70.9% | 1.41 | 1.46 Dafabet | 68.5% | +2.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 16.1% | 6.20 | 6.00 Betano | 16.7% | -0.5 |
| Match result | Slovan Bratislava | 13.0% | 7.72 | 8.00 Bet365 | 12.5% | +0.5 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 90.6% | 1.10 | 1.11 Betano | 90.1% | +0.5 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 9.4% | 10.68 | 8.00 BetVictor | 12.5% | -3.1 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 35.5% | 2.82 | 2.50 Betfair | 40.0% | -4.5 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 75.2% | 1.33 | 1.40 Bet365 | 71.4% | +3.7 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 24.8% | 4.02 | 3.50 Betfair | 28.6% | -3.7 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 55.3% | 1.81 | 1.91 Bet365 | 52.4% | +2.9 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 44.7% | 2.24 | 2.00 Bet365 | 50.0% | -5.3 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 64.5% | 1.55 | 1.57 Bet365 | 63.7% | +0.9 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Lask Linz favoured against Slovan Bratislava
Our model makes Lask Linz 71% to win this UEFA Champions League fixture, with the draw at 16% and Slovan Bratislava at 13%. The goal projection is 2.78 for Lask Linz against 1.16 for Slovan Bratislava — a commanding edge to Lask Linz on expected output. A combined 3.93 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 75% and both teams to score at 65%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Lask Linz is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 29% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 2-1 9%
- 3-1 8%
- 2-0 8%
- 3-0 7%
- 1-1 7%
This season
| Lask Linz | Slovan Bratislava | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Played | 10 |
| 8-1-3 | W-D-L | 3-3-4 |
| 2.08 | Pts / game | 1.20 |
| 2.50 | Goals for / game | 1.00 |
| 1.25 | Goals against / game | 2.10 |
| 83% | Over 2.5 | 50% |
| 58% | BTTS | 50% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 20% |
| 8% | Failed to score | 30% |
| 4-0-2 | Home record | 1-2-1 |
| 4-1-1 | Away record | 2-1-3 |
| W2 | Streak | L4 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Lask Linz · Slovan Bratislava
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 16.9 | Shots | 7.7 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.9 | Shots on target | 2.0 |
| 5.6 | Corners | 1.3 |
| 1.56 | Cards | 2.00 |
| 10.3 | Fouls | 10.0 |
| 50 | Possession % | 34 |
| 2.28 | xG | 0.46 |
| 9 matches | sample | 3 matches |
Conceded
| 12.1 | Shots | 23.7 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.6 | Shots on target | 9.3 |
| 3.9 | Corners | 8.0 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 1.00 |
| 11.0 | Fouls | 10.0 |
| 50 | Possession % | 66 |
| 1.64 | xG | 3.39 |
| 9 matches | sample | 3 matches |
Form comparison
| Lask Linz | Metric | Slovan Bratislava |
|---|---|---|
| 2.20 (better) | Goals scored | 1.20 |
| 2.60 | Goals conceded | 2.00 (better) |
| 1.79 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.06 |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.20 (better) | Shots on target | 2.00 |
| 14.60 (better) | Total shots | 11.33 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.80 (better) | Corners | 2.33 |
| 44.8 (better) | Possession % | 44.3 |
| 405 | Passes | 409 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.40 | Fouls | 10.33 (better) |
| 3.60 | Offsides | 0.67 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.20 | Yellow cards | 2.00 (better) |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Lask Linz wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Slovan Bratislava wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 4.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 0%
- Lask Linz v Slovan Bratislava4–02026-11-03
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +15 | 12 | Paris Saint Germain won 4 of the last 4 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 12 | Real Madrid won 4 of the last 4 |
| 3 | Arsenal | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 10 | Arsenal won 3 of the last 4 |
| 4 | Como | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +13 | 9 | Como won 3 of the last 4 |
| 5 | Barcelona | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +8 | 9 | Barcelona won 3 of the last 4 |
| 6 | Aston Villa | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +6 | 9 | Aston Villa won 3 of the last 4 |
| 7 | Manchester City | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +5 | 9 | Manchester City won 3 of the last 4 |
| 8 | Liverpool | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 9 | Liverpool won 3 of the last 4 |
| 9 | Club Brugge KV | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 9 | Club Brugge KV won 3 of the last 4 |
| 10 | Sporting CP | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 9 | Sporting CP won 3 of the last 4 |
| 11 | Real Betis | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 9 | Real Betis won 3 of the last 4 |
| 12 | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 9 | Borussia Dortmund won 3 of the last 4 |
| 13 | Bayern München | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +7 | 8 | Bayern München won 2 of the last 4 |
| 14 | VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 | VfB Stuttgart won 2 of the last 4 |
| 15 | Inter | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 6 | Inter won 2 of the last 4 |
| 16 | Lask Linz | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 6 | Lask Linz won 2 of the last 4 |
| 17 | Manchester United | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | Manchester United won 2 of the last 4 |
| 18 | Galatasaray | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 | Galatasaray won 2 of the last 4 |
| 19 | Fenerbahçe | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -5 | 5 | Fenerbahçe won 1 of the last 4 |
| 20 | AS Roma | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 4 | AS Roma won 1 of the last 4 |
| 21 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | Shakhtar Donetsk won 1 of the last 4 |
| 22 | Viking | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 | Viking won 1 of the last 4 |
| 23 | Atletico Madrid | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 | Atletico Madrid won 1 of the last 4 |
| 24 | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 | PSV Eindhoven won 1 of the last 4 |
| 25 | Bodo/Glimt | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 4 | Bodo/Glimt won 1 of the last 4 |
| 26 | FC Porto | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 3 | FC Porto won 1 of the last 4 |
| 27 | Napoli | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 | Napoli won 1 of the last 4 |
| 28 | Villarreal | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 | Villarreal won 1 of the last 4 |
| 29 | AEK Athens FC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 | AEK Athens FC won 1 of the last 4 |
| 30 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 | RB Leipzig won 1 of the last 4 |
| 31 | Sabah FA | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 | Sabah FA won 1 of the last 4 |
| 32 | Feyenoord | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 3 | Feyenoord won 1 of the last 4 |
| 33 | Lens | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -12 | 3 | Lens won 1 of the last 4 |
| 34 | Slavia Praha | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 | Slavia Praha won 0 of the last 4 |
| 35 | Lille | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 | Lille won 0 of the last 4 |
| 36 | Slovan Bratislava | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -16 | 0 | Slovan Bratislava won 0 of the last 4 |