Barcelona v 
Aston Villa
Match statistics
| Barcelona | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Offsides | 3 |
| 602 | Passes | 320 |
| 65% | Possession % | 35% |
| 2.05 | xG | 0.77 |
- Over 1.5
- 95%
- Over 2.5
- 86%
- Over 3.5
- 71%
- Both score
- 78%
- Model pick
- Barcelona 67%
- Likely score
- 3-1 7%
- Expected goals
- 3.14 – 1.67
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 1 of 5Both teams to score — Yes
Why this price?
Back both teams to score at 1.53 with Betano — each side scores at least once.
Our model puts the chance at 78% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 63%; we judge it at 69%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.45. The offered 1.53 implies only 65%, so the price is 5.2% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Barcelona 3.14, Aston Villa 1.67.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Barcelona | 66.7% | 1.50 | 1.31 Betano | 76.3% | -9.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 15.7% | 6.37 | 7.20 Dafabet | 13.9% | +1.8 |
| Match result | Aston Villa | 17.6% | 5.69 | 11.00 Bet365 | 9.1% | +8.5 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 95.5% | 1.05 | 1.05 Betano | 95.2% | +0.2 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 4.5% | 22.02 | 13.00 Bet365 | 7.7% | -3.2 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 85.8% | 1.17 | 1.18 Betano | 84.7% | +1.0 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 14.2% | 7.04 | 5.25 BetVictor | 19.0% | -4.8 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 70.6% | 1.42 | 1.57 Bet365 | 63.7% | +6.9 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 29.4% | 3.41 | 2.77 Betano | 36.1% | -6.7 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 77.8% | 1.29 | 1.53 Betano | 65.4% | +12.4 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 22.2% | 4.50 | 3.00 William Hill | 33.3% | -11.1 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Barcelona favoured against Aston Villa
Our model makes Barcelona 67% to win this UEFA Champions League fixture, with the draw at 16% and Aston Villa at 18%. The goal projection is 3.14 for Barcelona against 1.67 for Aston Villa — a commanding edge to Barcelona on expected output. A combined 4.80 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 86% and both teams to score at 78%. The single most likely scoreline is 3-1 at 7%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Barcelona is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 33% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 3-1 7%
- 2-1 7%
- 3-2 6%
- 2-2 6%
- 4-1 6%
This season
| Barcelona | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Played | 10 |
| 11-0-1 | W-D-L | 3-4-3 |
| 2.75 | Pts / game | 1.30 |
| 4.00 | Goals for / game | 1.40 |
| 1.08 | Goals against / game | 1.70 |
| 92% | Over 2.5 | 60% |
| 67% | BTTS | 60% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 20% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 30% |
| 5-0-1 | Home record | 1-2-2 |
| 6-0-0 | Away record | 2-2-1 |
| W2 | Streak | D2 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Barcelona · Aston Villa
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 20.1 | Shots | 15.1 |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | Shots on target | 5.4 |
| 6.0 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 1.50 | Cards | 1.67 |
| 11.8 | Fouls | 10.7 |
| 68 | Possession % | 44 |
| 2.87 | xG | 1.86 |
| 10 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Conceded
| 8.4 | Shots | 16.2 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.2 | Shots on target | 5.3 |
| 2.9 | Corners | 6.2 |
| 2.63 | Cards | 2.56 |
| 11.2 | Fouls | 14.2 |
| 32 | Possession % | 56 |
| 1.33 | xG | 1.81 |
| 10 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Form comparison
| Barcelona | Metric | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| 3.00 (better) | Goals scored | 2.80 |
| 1.80 | Goals conceded | 0.80 (better) |
| 2.28 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 2.09 |
| Big chances | ||
| 8.00 (better) | Shots on target | 6.60 |
| 19.80 (better) | Total shots | 16.80 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.80 (better) | Corners | 5.60 |
| 67.6 (better) | Possession % | 47.6 |
| 696 (better) | Passes | 413 |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.00 (better) | Fouls | 11.60 |
| 2.80 | Offsides | 1.00 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.60 | Yellow cards | 1.60 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Barcelona wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Aston Villa wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 3.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 0%
- Barcelona v Aston Villa3–02026-11-03
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +15 | 12 | Paris Saint Germain won 4 of the last 4 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 12 | Real Madrid won 4 of the last 4 |
| 3 | Arsenal | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 10 | Arsenal won 3 of the last 4 |
| 4 | Como | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +13 | 9 | Como won 3 of the last 4 |
| 5 | Barcelona | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +8 | 9 | Barcelona won 3 of the last 4 |
| 6 | Aston Villa | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +6 | 9 | Aston Villa won 3 of the last 4 |
| 7 | Manchester City | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +5 | 9 | Manchester City won 3 of the last 4 |
| 8 | Liverpool | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 9 | Liverpool won 3 of the last 4 |
| 9 | Club Brugge KV | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 9 | Club Brugge KV won 3 of the last 4 |
| 10 | Sporting CP | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 9 | Sporting CP won 3 of the last 4 |
| 11 | Real Betis | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 9 | Real Betis won 3 of the last 4 |
| 12 | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 9 | Borussia Dortmund won 3 of the last 4 |
| 13 | Bayern München | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +7 | 8 | Bayern München won 2 of the last 4 |
| 14 | VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 | VfB Stuttgart won 2 of the last 4 |
| 15 | Inter | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 6 | Inter won 2 of the last 4 |
| 16 | Lask Linz | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 6 | Lask Linz won 2 of the last 4 |
| 17 | Manchester United | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | Manchester United won 2 of the last 4 |
| 18 | Galatasaray | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 | Galatasaray won 2 of the last 4 |
| 19 | Fenerbahçe | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -5 | 5 | Fenerbahçe won 1 of the last 4 |
| 20 | AS Roma | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 4 | AS Roma won 1 of the last 4 |
| 21 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | Shakhtar Donetsk won 1 of the last 4 |
| 22 | Viking | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 | Viking won 1 of the last 4 |
| 23 | Atletico Madrid | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 | Atletico Madrid won 1 of the last 4 |
| 24 | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 | PSV Eindhoven won 1 of the last 4 |
| 25 | Bodo/Glimt | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 4 | Bodo/Glimt won 1 of the last 4 |
| 26 | FC Porto | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 3 | FC Porto won 1 of the last 4 |
| 27 | Napoli | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 | Napoli won 1 of the last 4 |
| 28 | Villarreal | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 | Villarreal won 1 of the last 4 |
| 29 | AEK Athens FC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 | AEK Athens FC won 1 of the last 4 |
| 30 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 | RB Leipzig won 1 of the last 4 |
| 31 | Sabah FA | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 | Sabah FA won 1 of the last 4 |
| 32 | Feyenoord | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 3 | Feyenoord won 1 of the last 4 |
| 33 | Lens | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -12 | 3 | Lens won 1 of the last 4 |
| 34 | Slavia Praha | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 | Slavia Praha won 0 of the last 4 |
| 35 | Lille | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 | Lille won 0 of the last 4 |
| 36 | Slovan Bratislava | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -16 | 0 | Slovan Bratislava won 0 of the last 4 |