Feyenoord v Inter

2nd0–32nd

20:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Feyenoord		Inter
11	Shots	11
2	Shots on target	6
5	Corners	4
7	Fouls	13
1	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	2
596	Passes	528
53%	Possession %	47%
0.77	xG	1.21

Over 1.5: 94%
Over 2.5: 82%
Over 3.5: 64%
Both score: 79%

Model pick: Inter 41%
Likely score: 2-2 7%
Expected goals: 2.16 – 2.24

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Over 3.5

2.05Marathonbet · fair 1.86 · qualifies at 1.93+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back over 3.5 goals at 2.05 with Marathonbet — 4 goals or more in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 64% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 47%; we judge it at 54%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.86. The offered 2.05 implies only 49%, so the price is 10.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Feyenoord 2.16, Inter 2.24.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Feyenoord +0.25

2.50Bet365 · fair 2.41 · qualifies at 2.49+ · 0.60u

Why this price?

Back Feyenoord +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.50 with Bet365 — Feyenoord starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 54% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 33%; we judge it at 41%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.41. The offered 2.50 implies only 40%, so the price is 3.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.60 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Feyenoord 2.16, Inter 2.24.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Feyenoord	38.5%	2.60	4.40 Betano	22.7%	+15.7
Match result	Draw	20.2%	4.95	4.33 Betfair	23.1%	-2.9
Match result	Inter	41.3%	2.42	1.95 Betano	51.3%	-10.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	93.7%	1.07	1.13 Betano	88.5%	+5.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	6.3%	15.87	7.00 Betfair	14.3%	-8.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	81.6%	1.23	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	+12.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	18.4%	5.42	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	-14.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	64.2%	1.56	2.05 Betano	48.8%	+15.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	35.8%	2.79	1.83 Betfair	54.6%	-18.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	79.4%	1.26	1.47 Betfair	68.0%	+11.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	20.6%	4.86	3.10 Betfair	32.3%	-11.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Feyenoord v Inter: too close to call

Our model makes Feyenoord 38% to win this UEFA Champions League fixture, with the draw at 20% and Inter at 41%. The goal projection is 2.16 for Feyenoord against 2.24 for Inter — almost nothing to Inter on expected output. A combined 4.41 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 82% and both teams to score at 79%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-2 at 7%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-2 7%; 1-2 7%; 2-1 6%; 1-1 6%; 2-3 5%

This season

Season records for Feyenoord and Inter
Feyenoord		Inter
12	Played	11
7-4-1	W-D-L	9-1-1
2.08	Pts / game	2.55
3.00	Goals for / game	2.55
1.42	Goals against / game	1.18
67%	Over 2.5	73%
67%	BTTS	64%
33%	Clean sheets	36%
0%	Failed to score	0%
2-3-0	Home record	6-0-0
5-1-1	Away record	3-1-1
L1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Feyenoord · Inter

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.8	Shots	19.5
5.3	Shots on target	7.2
5.0	Corners	5.5
1.63	Cards	1.84
9.8	Fouls	10.6
51	Possession %	56
1.71	xG	2.44
8 matches	sample	11 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.0	Shots	10.5
6.3	Shots on target	3.6
4.0	Corners	2.7
2.00	Cards	1.82
12.4	Fouls	9.3
49	Possession %	44
1.49	xG	1.16
8 matches	sample	11 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Feyenoord	Metric	Inter
2.00	Goals scored	2.40 (better)
1.40	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
1.76	Expected goals (xG)	2.83 (better)
	Big chances
6.20	Shots on target	8.40 (better)
14.80	Total shots	22.40 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.80 (better)	Corners	4.80
48.0	Possession %	57.0 (better)
471	Passes	568 (better)
	Tackles
11.40	Fouls	10.40 (better)
1.00 (better)	Offsides	2.80
	Throw-ins
2.40	Yellow cards	2.25 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Feyenoord wins: 0
Draws: 0
Inter wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 0%

Feyenoord v Inter0–32026-11-03

UEFA Champions League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Paris Saint Germain	4	4	0	0	+15	12	Paris Saint Germain won 4 of the last 4
2	Real Madrid	4	4	0	0	+6	12	Real Madrid won 4 of the last 4
3	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	+5	10	Arsenal won 3 of the last 4
4	Como	4	3	0	1	+13	9	Como won 3 of the last 4
5	Barcelona	4	3	0	1	+8	9	Barcelona won 3 of the last 4
6	Aston Villa	4	3	0	1	+6	9	Aston Villa won 3 of the last 4
7	Manchester City	4	3	0	1	+5	9	Manchester City won 3 of the last 4
8	Liverpool	4	3	0	1	+4	9	Liverpool won 3 of the last 4
9	Club Brugge KV	4	3	0	1	+4	9	Club Brugge KV won 3 of the last 4
10	Sporting CP	4	3	0	1	+4	9	Sporting CP won 3 of the last 4
11	Real Betis	4	3	0	1	+2	9	Real Betis won 3 of the last 4
12	Borussia Dortmund	4	3	0	1	+2	9	Borussia Dortmund won 3 of the last 4
13	Bayern München	4	2	2	0	+7	8	Bayern München won 2 of the last 4
14	VfB Stuttgart	4	2	1	1	+3	7	VfB Stuttgart won 2 of the last 4
15	Inter	4	2	0	2	+2	6	Inter won 2 of the last 4
16	Lask Linz	4	2	0	2	+1	6	Lask Linz won 2 of the last 4
17	Manchester United	4	2	0	2	0	6	Manchester United won 2 of the last 4
18	Galatasaray	4	2	0	2	-1	6	Galatasaray won 2 of the last 4
19	Fenerbahçe	4	1	2	1	-5	5	Fenerbahçe won 1 of the last 4
20	AS Roma	4	1	1	2	+2	4	AS Roma won 1 of the last 4
21	Shakhtar Donetsk	4	1	1	2	0	4	Shakhtar Donetsk won 1 of the last 4
22	Viking	4	1	1	2	-1	4	Viking won 1 of the last 4
23	Atletico Madrid	4	1	1	2	-1	4	Atletico Madrid won 1 of the last 4
24	PSV Eindhoven	4	1	1	2	-1	4	PSV Eindhoven won 1 of the last 4
25	Bodo/Glimt	4	1	1	2	-5	4	Bodo/Glimt won 1 of the last 4
26	FC Porto	4	1	0	3	-1	3	FC Porto won 1 of the last 4
27	Napoli	4	1	0	3	-5	3	Napoli won 1 of the last 4
28	Villarreal	4	1	0	3	-6	3	Villarreal won 1 of the last 4
29	AEK Athens FC	4	1	0	3	-6	3	AEK Athens FC won 1 of the last 4
30	RB Leipzig	4	1	0	3	-6	3	RB Leipzig won 1 of the last 4
31	Sabah FA	4	1	0	3	-6	3	Sabah FA won 1 of the last 4
32	Feyenoord	4	1	0	3	-7	3	Feyenoord won 1 of the last 4
33	Lens	4	1	0	3	-12	3	Lens won 1 of the last 4
34	Slavia Praha	4	0	1	3	-4	1	Slavia Praha won 0 of the last 4
35	Lille	4	0	1	3	-6	1	Lille won 0 of the last 4
36	Slovan Bratislava	4	0	0	4	-16	0	Slovan Bratislava won 0 of the last 4