Predicted Edge

Shakhtar Donetsk v Sporting CP

Shakhtar Donetsk won 1 of the last 421st0–1Sporting CP won 3 of the last 53rd

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Shakhtar Donetsk Sporting CP
14Shots11
4Shots on target3
7Corners2
10Fouls18
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
1Offsides0
441Passes372
54%Possession %46%
1.64xG1.54
Over 1.5
86%
Over 2.5
67%
Over 3.5
45%
Both score
67%
Model pick
Sporting CP 44%
Likely score
1-1 10%
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.86

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Edge strength 5 of 5

Shakhtar Donetsk -0.25

3.10Bet365 · fair 2.81 · qualifies at 2.89+ · 1.25u
Why this price?

Back Shakhtar Donetsk -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 3.10 with Bet365 — Shakhtar Donetsk must win by more than 0.25 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 37% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 35%; we judge it at 36%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.80. The offered 3.10 implies only 32%, so the price is 10.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.25 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.58, Sporting CP 1.86.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Edge strength 4 of 5

Over 3.5

2.75Bet365 · fair 2.53 · qualifies at 2.63+ · 1.27u
Why this price?

Back over 3.5 goals at 2.75 with Bet365 — 4 goals or more in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 45% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 36%; we judge it at 40%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.53. The offered 2.75 implies only 36%, so the price is 8.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.27 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.58, Sporting CP 1.86.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultShakhtar Donetsk32.5%3.083.70 Bet36527.0%+5.5
Match resultDraw23.2%4.303.85 Betano26.0%-2.7
Match resultSporting CP44.3%2.262.10 Betano47.6%-3.4
Total goalsOver 1.586.2%1.161.24 Betano80.6%+5.6
Total goalsUnder 1.513.8%7.244.50 Betfair22.2%-8.4
Total goalsOver 2.566.7%1.501.73 Bet36557.8%+8.9
Total goalsUnder 2.533.3%3.002.20 Bet36545.5%-12.2
Total goalsOver 3.545.0%2.222.82 Betano35.5%+9.5
Total goalsUnder 3.555.0%1.821.47 Betano68.0%-13.0
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes67.4%1.481.62 William Hill61.7%+5.7
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No32.6%3.072.38 Betfair42.0%-9.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Sporting CP favoured against Shakhtar Donetsk

Our model makes Shakhtar Donetsk 33% to win this UEFA Champions League fixture, with the draw at 23% and Sporting CP at 44%. The goal projection is 1.58 for Shakhtar Donetsk against 1.86 for Sporting CP — a clear edge to Sporting CP on expected output. A combined 3.44 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 67% and both teams to score at 67%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 10%
1-2 9%
2-1 7%
2-2 7%
0-2 6%

This season

Season records for Shakhtar Donetsk and Sporting CP
Shakhtar Donetsk Sporting CP
4Played11
1-1-2W-D-L7-3-1
1.00Pts / game2.18
1.00Goals for / game2.18
1.00Goals against / game1.00
25%Over 2.564%
50%BTTS64%
0%Clean sheets36%
50%Failed to score0%
1-0-1Home record4-1-1
0-1-1Away record3-2-0
L2StreakW2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Shakhtar Donetsk · Sporting CP

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.7Shots16.7
4.0Shots on target5.0
5.3Corners5.3
1.33Cards1.14
12.0Fouls12.7
54Possession %57
1.22xG2.04
3 matchessample7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.3Shots13.0
3.7Shots on target4.0
3.0Corners4.1
3.33Cards2.14
14.7Fouls11.3
46Possession %43
1.33xG1.13
3 matchessample7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Shakhtar DonetskMetricSporting CP
1.60Goals scored2.00 (better)
0.60 (better)Goals conceded1.60
1.00Expected goals (xG)1.83 (better)
Big chances
5.67 (better)Shots on target3.80
14.67Total shots14.80 (better)
Touches in opp. box
7.33 (better)Corners5.40
59.7 (better)Possession %56.4
490Passes507 (better)
Tackles
13.00Fouls11.00 (better)
3.00Offsides1.80 (better)
Throw-ins
2.00Yellow cards1.80 (better)
0.00 (better)Red cards0.25

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Shakhtar Donetsk wins
0
Draws
0
Sporting CP wins
1
Goals / game
1.00
Over 2.5
0%
Both score
0%
UEFA Champions League table
League table
#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
1Paris Saint Germain4400+1512Paris Saint Germain won 4 of the last 4
2Real Madrid4400+612Real Madrid won 4 of the last 4
3Arsenal4310+510Arsenal won 3 of the last 4
4Como4301+139Como won 3 of the last 4
5Barcelona4301+89Barcelona won 3 of the last 4
6Aston Villa4301+69Aston Villa won 3 of the last 4
7Manchester City4301+59Manchester City won 3 of the last 4
8Liverpool4301+49Liverpool won 3 of the last 4
9Club Brugge KV4301+49Club Brugge KV won 3 of the last 4
10Sporting CP4301+49Sporting CP won 3 of the last 4
11Real Betis4301+29Real Betis won 3 of the last 4
12Borussia Dortmund4301+29Borussia Dortmund won 3 of the last 4
13Bayern München4220+78Bayern München won 2 of the last 4
14VfB Stuttgart4211+37VfB Stuttgart won 2 of the last 4
15Inter4202+26Inter won 2 of the last 4
16Lask Linz4202+16Lask Linz won 2 of the last 4
17Manchester United420206Manchester United won 2 of the last 4
18Galatasaray4202-16Galatasaray won 2 of the last 4
19Fenerbahçe4121-55Fenerbahçe won 1 of the last 4
20AS Roma4112+24AS Roma won 1 of the last 4
21Shakhtar Donetsk411204Shakhtar Donetsk won 1 of the last 4
22Viking4112-14Viking won 1 of the last 4
23Atletico Madrid4112-14Atletico Madrid won 1 of the last 4
24PSV Eindhoven4112-14PSV Eindhoven won 1 of the last 4
25Bodo/Glimt4112-54Bodo/Glimt won 1 of the last 4
26FC Porto4103-13FC Porto won 1 of the last 4
27Napoli4103-53Napoli won 1 of the last 4
28Villarreal4103-63Villarreal won 1 of the last 4
29AEK Athens FC4103-63AEK Athens FC won 1 of the last 4
30RB Leipzig4103-63RB Leipzig won 1 of the last 4
31Sabah FA4103-63Sabah FA won 1 of the last 4
32Feyenoord4103-73Feyenoord won 1 of the last 4
33Lens4103-123Lens won 1 of the last 4
34Slavia Praha4013-41Slavia Praha won 0 of the last 4
35Lille4013-61Lille won 0 of the last 4
36Slovan Bratislava4004-160Slovan Bratislava won 0 of the last 4