Fenerbahçe v Liverpool

6th3–24th

17:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Fenerbahçe		Liverpool
17	Shots	22
6	Shots on target	6
4	Corners	12
13	Fouls	12
1	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	2
260	Passes	529
32%	Possession %	68%
1.78	xG	1.59

Over 1.5: 94%
Over 2.5: 81%
Over 3.5: 64%
Both score: 79%

Model pick: Fenerbahçe 46%
Likely score: 2-2 7%
Expected goals: 2.36 – 2.02

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Fenerbahçe +0.5

2.30Betano · fair 2.08 · qualifies at 2.15+ · 1.98u

Why this price?

Back Fenerbahçe +0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.30 with Betano — Fenerbahçe starts 0.5 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 66% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 36%; we judge it at 48%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.09. The offered 2.30 implies only 43%, so the price is 10.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.98 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Fenerbahçe 2.36, Liverpool 2.02.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Over 2.5

1.53Betano · fair 1.42 · qualifies at 1.47+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back over 2.5 goals at 1.53 with Betano — 3 goals or more in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 81% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 63%; we judge it at 71%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.42. The offered 1.53 implies only 65%, so the price is 7.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Fenerbahçe 2.36, Liverpool 2.02.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Fenerbahçe	46.3%	2.16	6.50 BetVictor	15.4%	+30.9
Match result	Draw	20.1%	4.98	5.20 Betano	19.2%	+0.8
Match result	Liverpool	33.6%	2.98	1.57 Betano	63.7%	-30.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	93.6%	1.07	1.12 Betano	89.3%	+4.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	6.4%	15.55	8.00 BetVictor	12.5%	-6.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	81.3%	1.23	1.39 Betano	71.9%	+9.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	18.7%	5.34	3.50 Betfair	28.6%	-9.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	63.7%	1.57	2.05 Betfair	48.8%	+15.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	36.3%	2.76	2.02 Betano	49.5%	-13.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	78.9%	1.27	1.57 William Hill	63.7%	+15.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	21.1%	4.73	2.80 Betfair	35.7%	-14.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Fenerbahçe favoured against Liverpool

Our model makes Fenerbahçe 46% to win this UEFA Champions League fixture, with the draw at 20% and Liverpool at 34%. The goal projection is 2.36 for Fenerbahçe against 2.02 for Liverpool — a clear edge to Fenerbahçe on expected output. A combined 4.38 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 81% and both teams to score at 79%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-2 at 7%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-2 7%; 2-1 7%; 1-1 6%; 1-2 6%; 3-2 6%

This season

Season records for Fenerbahçe and Liverpool
Fenerbahçe		Liverpool
11	Played	10
6-1-4	W-D-L	5-3-2
1.73	Pts / game	1.80
2.64	Goals for / game	1.40
0.91	Goals against / game	1.00
82%	Over 2.5	50%
45%	BTTS	40%
55%	Clean sheets	40%
9%	Failed to score	30%
3-0-2	Home record	1-2-2
3-1-2	Away record	4-1-0
W1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Fenerbahçe · Liverpool

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.6	Shots	18.4
6.0	Shots on target	5.3
4.6	Corners	7.2
2.00	Cards	1.90
11.4	Fouls	13.6
52	Possession %	53
1.98	xG	1.82
9 matches	sample	9 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
18.1	Shots	13.7
6.6	Shots on target	3.8
6.9	Corners	3.4
1.25	Cards	2.14
10.6	Fouls	10.1
48	Possession %	47
1.67	xG	1.49
9 matches	sample	9 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Fenerbahçe	Metric	Liverpool
1.80	Goals scored	2.80 (better)
2.00	Goals conceded	2.00
1.60	Expected goals (xG)	1.89 (better)
	Big chances
4.60	Shots on target	6.20 (better)
14.20	Total shots	19.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.60	Corners	7.20 (better)
50.2 (better)	Possession %	49.6
426	Passes	449 (better)
	Tackles
12.00 (better)	Fouls	12.20
2.00 (better)	Offsides	3.00
	Throw-ins
2.75	Yellow cards	1.40 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.25

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Fenerbahçe wins: 1
Draws: 0
Liverpool wins: 0
Goals / game: 5.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Fenerbahçe v Liverpool3–22026-11-04

UEFA Champions League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Paris Saint Germain	4	4	0	0	+15	12	Paris Saint Germain won 4 of the last 4
2	Real Madrid	4	4	0	0	+6	12	Real Madrid won 4 of the last 4
3	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	+5	10	Arsenal won 3 of the last 4
4	Como	4	3	0	1	+13	9	Como won 3 of the last 4
5	Barcelona	4	3	0	1	+8	9	Barcelona won 3 of the last 4
6	Aston Villa	4	3	0	1	+6	9	Aston Villa won 3 of the last 4
7	Manchester City	4	3	0	1	+5	9	Manchester City won 3 of the last 4
8	Liverpool	4	3	0	1	+4	9	Liverpool won 3 of the last 4
9	Club Brugge KV	4	3	0	1	+4	9	Club Brugge KV won 3 of the last 4
10	Sporting CP	4	3	0	1	+4	9	Sporting CP won 3 of the last 4
11	Real Betis	4	3	0	1	+2	9	Real Betis won 3 of the last 4
12	Borussia Dortmund	4	3	0	1	+2	9	Borussia Dortmund won 3 of the last 4
13	Bayern München	4	2	2	0	+7	8	Bayern München won 2 of the last 4
14	VfB Stuttgart	4	2	1	1	+3	7	VfB Stuttgart won 2 of the last 4
15	Inter	4	2	0	2	+2	6	Inter won 2 of the last 4
16	Lask Linz	4	2	0	2	+1	6	Lask Linz won 2 of the last 4
17	Manchester United	4	2	0	2	0	6	Manchester United won 2 of the last 4
18	Galatasaray	4	2	0	2	-1	6	Galatasaray won 2 of the last 4
19	Fenerbahçe	4	1	2	1	-5	5	Fenerbahçe won 1 of the last 4
20	AS Roma	4	1	1	2	+2	4	AS Roma won 1 of the last 4
21	Shakhtar Donetsk	4	1	1	2	0	4	Shakhtar Donetsk won 1 of the last 4
22	Viking	4	1	1	2	-1	4	Viking won 1 of the last 4
23	Atletico Madrid	4	1	1	2	-1	4	Atletico Madrid won 1 of the last 4
24	PSV Eindhoven	4	1	1	2	-1	4	PSV Eindhoven won 1 of the last 4
25	Bodo/Glimt	4	1	1	2	-5	4	Bodo/Glimt won 1 of the last 4
26	FC Porto	4	1	0	3	-1	3	FC Porto won 1 of the last 4
27	Napoli	4	1	0	3	-5	3	Napoli won 1 of the last 4
28	Villarreal	4	1	0	3	-6	3	Villarreal won 1 of the last 4
29	AEK Athens FC	4	1	0	3	-6	3	AEK Athens FC won 1 of the last 4
30	RB Leipzig	4	1	0	3	-6	3	RB Leipzig won 1 of the last 4
31	Sabah FA	4	1	0	3	-6	3	Sabah FA won 1 of the last 4
32	Feyenoord	4	1	0	3	-7	3	Feyenoord won 1 of the last 4
33	Lens	4	1	0	3	-12	3	Lens won 1 of the last 4
34	Slavia Praha	4	0	1	3	-4	1	Slavia Praha won 0 of the last 4
35	Lille	4	0	1	3	-6	1	Lille won 0 of the last 4
36	Slovan Bratislava	4	0	0	4	-16	0	Slovan Bratislava won 0 of the last 4