FC Porto v Napoli

1st4–110th

20:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
FC Porto		Napoli
19	Shots	11
8	Shots on target	6
5	Corners	5
8	Fouls	11
1	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	1
4	Offsides	3
519	Passes	484
52%	Possession %	48%
3.17	xG	1.44

Over 1.5: 83%
Over 2.5: 62%
Over 3.5: 40%
Both score: 60%

Model pick: FC Porto 58%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 2.05 – 1.15

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

FC Porto

2.25Betano · fair 2.04 · qualifies at 2.10+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back FC Porto to win at 2.25 with Betano.

Our model puts the chance at 58% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 43%; we judge it at 49%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.04. The offered 2.25 implies only 44%, so the price is 10.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: FC Porto 2.05, Napoli 1.15.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Over 3.5

3.00Bet365 · fair 2.84 · qualifies at 2.95+ · 0.71u

Why this price?

Back over 3.5 goals at 3.00 with Bet365 — 4 goals or more in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 40% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 32%; we judge it at 35%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.84. The offered 3.00 implies only 33%, so the price is 5.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.71 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: FC Porto 2.05, Napoli 1.15.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	FC Porto	57.6%	1.74	2.00 Betfair	50.0%	+7.6
Match result	Draw	22.1%	4.53	3.90 Betfair	25.6%	-3.6
Match result	Napoli	20.3%	4.92	3.90 Bet365	25.6%	-5.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	83.3%	1.20	1.27 BetVictor	78.7%	+4.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	16.7%	5.99	4.00 Bet365	25.0%	-8.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	61.9%	1.62	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	+8.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	38.1%	2.62	2.15 Betfair	46.5%	-8.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	39.6%	2.52	3.20 Bet365	31.3%	+8.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	60.4%	1.66	1.42 Betano	70.4%	-10.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	59.9%	1.67	1.75 Bet365	57.1%	+2.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	40.1%	2.50	2.20 William Hill	45.5%	-5.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

FC Porto favoured against Napoli

Our model makes FC Porto 58% to win this UEFA Champions League fixture, with the draw at 22% and Napoli at 20%. The goal projection is 2.05 for FC Porto against 1.15 for Napoli — a substantial edge to FC Porto on expected output. A combined 3.20 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 62% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 2-1 10%; 2-0 9%; 1-0 8%; 3-1 7%

This season

Season records for FC Porto and Napoli
FC Porto		Napoli
11	Played	11
11-0-0	W-D-L	4-3-4
3.00	Pts / game	1.36
2.45	Goals for / game	1.64
0.45	Goals against / game	1.27
64%	Over 2.5	45%
45%	BTTS	55%
55%	Clean sheets	27%
0%	Failed to score	18%
5-0-0	Home record	2-2-1
6-0-0	Away record	2-1-3
W11	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. FC Porto · Napoli

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
16.4	Shots	15.1
6.5	Shots on target	5.9
4.8	Corners	5.3
1.88	Cards	1.80
12.9	Fouls	9.6
52	Possession %	53
1.88	xG	1.82
8 matches	sample	11 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.3	Shots	15.2
3.9	Shots on target	4.4
3.1	Corners	4.9
2.63	Cards	1.82
12.3	Fouls	9.5
48	Possession %	47
0.98	xG	1.39
8 matches	sample	11 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
FC Porto	Metric	Napoli
1.60	Goals scored	2.20 (better)
1.20 (better)	Goals conceded	2.00
1.43	Expected goals (xG)	2.24 (better)
	Big chances
5.25	Shots on target	7.60 (better)
14.00	Total shots	18.20 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.25	Corners	5.20 (better)
50.0	Possession %	50.4 (better)
432	Passes	500 (better)
	Tackles
13.50	Fouls	8.40 (better)
3.00	Offsides	2.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.50 (better)	Yellow cards	1.80
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

FC Porto wins: 1
Draws: 0
Napoli wins: 0
Goals / game: 5.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

FC Porto v Napoli4–12026-11-04

UEFA Champions League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Paris Saint Germain	4	4	0	0	+15	12	Paris Saint Germain won 4 of the last 4
2	Real Madrid	4	4	0	0	+6	12	Real Madrid won 4 of the last 4
3	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	+5	10	Arsenal won 3 of the last 4
4	Como	4	3	0	1	+13	9	Como won 3 of the last 4
5	Barcelona	4	3	0	1	+8	9	Barcelona won 3 of the last 4
6	Aston Villa	4	3	0	1	+6	9	Aston Villa won 3 of the last 4
7	Manchester City	4	3	0	1	+5	9	Manchester City won 3 of the last 4
8	Liverpool	4	3	0	1	+4	9	Liverpool won 3 of the last 4
9	Club Brugge KV	4	3	0	1	+4	9	Club Brugge KV won 3 of the last 4
10	Sporting CP	4	3	0	1	+4	9	Sporting CP won 3 of the last 4
11	Real Betis	4	3	0	1	+2	9	Real Betis won 3 of the last 4
12	Borussia Dortmund	4	3	0	1	+2	9	Borussia Dortmund won 3 of the last 4
13	Bayern München	4	2	2	0	+7	8	Bayern München won 2 of the last 4
14	VfB Stuttgart	4	2	1	1	+3	7	VfB Stuttgart won 2 of the last 4
15	Inter	4	2	0	2	+2	6	Inter won 2 of the last 4
16	Lask Linz	4	2	0	2	+1	6	Lask Linz won 2 of the last 4
17	Manchester United	4	2	0	2	0	6	Manchester United won 2 of the last 4
18	Galatasaray	4	2	0	2	-1	6	Galatasaray won 2 of the last 4
19	Fenerbahçe	4	1	2	1	-5	5	Fenerbahçe won 1 of the last 4
20	AS Roma	4	1	1	2	+2	4	AS Roma won 1 of the last 4
21	Shakhtar Donetsk	4	1	1	2	0	4	Shakhtar Donetsk won 1 of the last 4
22	Viking	4	1	1	2	-1	4	Viking won 1 of the last 4
23	Atletico Madrid	4	1	1	2	-1	4	Atletico Madrid won 1 of the last 4
24	PSV Eindhoven	4	1	1	2	-1	4	PSV Eindhoven won 1 of the last 4
25	Bodo/Glimt	4	1	1	2	-5	4	Bodo/Glimt won 1 of the last 4
26	FC Porto	4	1	0	3	-1	3	FC Porto won 1 of the last 4
27	Napoli	4	1	0	3	-5	3	Napoli won 1 of the last 4
28	Villarreal	4	1	0	3	-6	3	Villarreal won 1 of the last 4
29	AEK Athens FC	4	1	0	3	-6	3	AEK Athens FC won 1 of the last 4
30	RB Leipzig	4	1	0	3	-6	3	RB Leipzig won 1 of the last 4
31	Sabah FA	4	1	0	3	-6	3	Sabah FA won 1 of the last 4
32	Feyenoord	4	1	0	3	-7	3	Feyenoord won 1 of the last 4
33	Lens	4	1	0	3	-12	3	Lens won 1 of the last 4
34	Slavia Praha	4	0	1	3	-4	1	Slavia Praha won 0 of the last 4
35	Lille	4	0	1	3	-6	1	Lille won 0 of the last 4
36	Slovan Bratislava	4	0	0	4	-16	0	Slovan Bratislava won 0 of the last 4