Predicted Edge

PSV Eindhoven v Club Brugge KV

PSV Eindhoven won 3 of the last 51st1–2Club Brugge KV won 4 of the last 52nd

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
PSV Eindhoven Club Brugge KV
27Shots10
9Shots on target3
8Corners5
8Fouls10
0Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
0Offsides1
609Passes370
62%Possession %38%
2.95xG1.78
Over 1.5
94%
Over 2.5
83%
Over 3.5
66%
Both score
81%
Model pick
PSV Eindhoven 42%
Likely score
2-2 7%
Expected goals
2.31 – 2.23

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Edge strength 4 of 5

Over 3.5

1.95Betano · fair 1.78 · qualifies at 1.85+ · 2.00u
Why this price?

Back over 3.5 goals at 1.95 with Betano — 4 goals or more in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 66% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 49%; we judge it at 56%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.78. The offered 1.95 implies only 51%, so the price is 9.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: PSV Eindhoven 2.31, Club Brugge KV 2.23.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Edge strength 1 of 5

Club Brugge KV

2.98Marathonbet · fair 2.87 · qualifies at 2.96+ · 0.48u
Why this price?

Back Club Brugge KV to win at 2.98 with Marathonbet.

Our model puts the chance at 39% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 32%; we judge it at 35%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.87. The offered 2.98 implies only 34%, so the price is 3.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.48 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: PSV Eindhoven 2.31, Club Brugge KV 2.23.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultPSV Eindhoven41.6%2.412.10 Betfair47.6%-6.1
Match resultDraw19.9%5.034.40 Betano22.7%-2.9
Match resultClub Brugge KV38.6%2.593.40 Betfair29.4%+9.2
Total goalsOver 1.594.4%1.061.11 Betano90.1%+4.3
Total goalsUnder 1.55.6%17.727.50 Betfair13.3%-7.7
Total goalsOver 2.583.1%1.201.36 Bet36573.5%+9.5
Total goalsUnder 2.516.9%5.913.50 Betfair28.6%-11.6
Total goalsOver 3.566.4%1.501.91 Bet36552.4%+14.1
Total goalsUnder 3.533.6%2.982.00 Bet36550.0%-16.4
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes80.7%1.241.36 Betfair73.5%+7.1
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No19.3%5.173.30 Betfair30.3%-11.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

PSV Eindhoven v Club Brugge KV: too close to call

Our model makes PSV Eindhoven 42% to win this UEFA Champions League fixture, with the draw at 20% and Club Brugge KV at 39%. The goal projection is 2.31 for PSV Eindhoven against 2.23 for Club Brugge KV — almost nothing to PSV Eindhoven on expected output. A combined 4.54 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 83% and both teams to score at 81%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-2 at 7%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
2-2 7%
2-1 6%
1-2 6%
1-1 6%
3-2 5%

This season

Season records for PSV Eindhoven and Club Brugge KV
PSV Eindhoven Club Brugge KV
12Played11
8-2-2W-D-L9-1-1
2.17Pts / game2.55
3.33Goals for / game2.45
1.25Goals against / game0.82
83%Over 2.573%
83%BTTS55%
17%Clean sheets45%
0%Failed to score0%
4-2-0Home record5-1-0
4-0-2Away record4-0-1
W2StreakD1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. PSV Eindhoven · Club Brugge KV

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.0Shots17.1
5.4Shots on target6.4
5.8Corners6.0
1.57Cards2.13
11.8Fouls9.1
58Possession %58
1.91xG2.65
9 matchessample8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.2Shots16.9
4.4Shots on target5.0
3.9Corners4.1
2.00Cards2.75
10.6Fouls10.5
42Possession %42
1.60xG2.04
9 matchessample8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
PSV EindhovenMetricClub Brugge KV
1.00Goals scored3.00 (better)
0.80 (better)Goals conceded1.20
1.74Expected goals (xG)3.72 (better)
Big chances
4.00Shots on target6.25 (better)
15.80 (better)Total shots15.50
Touches in opp. box
5.40 (better)Corners3.00
54.2Possession %55.3 (better)
494Passes593 (better)
Tackles
12.00Fouls7.50 (better)
3.20Offsides1.75 (better)
Throw-ins
2.20Yellow cards1.75 (better)
0.33Red cards0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
PSV Eindhoven wins
0
Draws
0
Club Brugge KV wins
1
Goals / game
3.00
Over 2.5
100%
Both score
100%
UEFA Champions League table
League table
#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
1Paris Saint Germain4400+1512Paris Saint Germain won 4 of the last 4
2Real Madrid4400+612Real Madrid won 4 of the last 4
3Arsenal4310+510Arsenal won 3 of the last 4
4Como4301+139Como won 3 of the last 4
5Barcelona4301+89Barcelona won 3 of the last 4
6Aston Villa4301+69Aston Villa won 3 of the last 4
7Manchester City4301+59Manchester City won 3 of the last 4
8Liverpool4301+49Liverpool won 3 of the last 4
9Club Brugge KV4301+49Club Brugge KV won 3 of the last 4
10Sporting CP4301+49Sporting CP won 3 of the last 4
11Real Betis4301+29Real Betis won 3 of the last 4
12Borussia Dortmund4301+29Borussia Dortmund won 3 of the last 4
13Bayern München4220+78Bayern München won 2 of the last 4
14VfB Stuttgart4211+37VfB Stuttgart won 2 of the last 4
15Inter4202+26Inter won 2 of the last 4
16Lask Linz4202+16Lask Linz won 2 of the last 4
17Manchester United420206Manchester United won 2 of the last 4
18Galatasaray4202-16Galatasaray won 2 of the last 4
19Fenerbahçe4121-55Fenerbahçe won 1 of the last 4
20AS Roma4112+24AS Roma won 1 of the last 4
21Shakhtar Donetsk411204Shakhtar Donetsk won 1 of the last 4
22Viking4112-14Viking won 1 of the last 4
23Atletico Madrid4112-14Atletico Madrid won 1 of the last 4
24PSV Eindhoven4112-14PSV Eindhoven won 1 of the last 4
25Bodo/Glimt4112-54Bodo/Glimt won 1 of the last 4
26FC Porto4103-13FC Porto won 1 of the last 4
27Napoli4103-53Napoli won 1 of the last 4
28Villarreal4103-63Villarreal won 1 of the last 4
29AEK Athens FC4103-63AEK Athens FC won 1 of the last 4
30RB Leipzig4103-63RB Leipzig won 1 of the last 4
31Sabah FA4103-63Sabah FA won 1 of the last 4
32Feyenoord4103-73Feyenoord won 1 of the last 4
33Lens4103-123Lens won 1 of the last 4
34Slavia Praha4013-41Slavia Praha won 0 of the last 4
35Lille4013-61Lille won 0 of the last 4
36Slovan Bratislava4004-160Slovan Bratislava won 0 of the last 4