Borussia Dortmund v Real Betis

2nd2–14th

20:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Borussia Dortmund		Real Betis
15	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	4
2	Corners	5
15	Fouls	13
4	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
4	Offsides	2
454	Passes	416
53%	Possession %	47%
2.66	xG	0.88

Over 1.5: 82%
Over 2.5: 61%
Over 3.5: 38%
Both score: 61%

Model pick: Borussia Dortmund 50%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.85 – 1.28

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Borussia Dortmund -0.5

1.75Bet365 · fair 1.62 · qualifies at 1.66+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Borussia Dortmund -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.75 with Bet365 — Borussia Dortmund must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 50% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 70%; we judge it at 62%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.62. The offered 1.75 implies only 57%, so the price is 8.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Borussia Dortmund 1.85, Real Betis 1.28.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Borussia Dortmund	50.3%	1.99	1.75 Betano	57.1%	-6.8
Match result	Draw	23.7%	4.21	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	+0.6
Match result	Real Betis	25.9%	3.86	4.75 Bet365	21.1%	+4.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	82.5%	1.21	1.17 Bet365	85.5%	-3.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	17.5%	5.71	6.00 Betfair	16.7%	+0.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	60.6%	1.65	1.52 Betano	65.8%	-5.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	39.4%	2.54	2.75 Bet365	36.4%	+3.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	38.2%	2.62	2.30 Bet365	43.5%	-5.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	61.8%	1.62	1.73 Bet365	57.8%	+4.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	61.4%	1.63	1.53 Bet365	65.4%	-4.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	38.6%	2.59	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	+0.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Borussia Dortmund favoured against Real Betis

Our model makes Borussia Dortmund 50% to win this UEFA Champions League fixture, with the draw at 24% and Real Betis at 26%. The goal projection is 1.85 for Borussia Dortmund against 1.28 for Real Betis — a substantial edge to Borussia Dortmund on expected output. A combined 3.13 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 10%; 1-0 8%; 2-0 7%; 1-2 7%

This season

Season records for Borussia Dortmund and Real Betis
Borussia Dortmund		Real Betis
9	Played	12
6-3-0	W-D-L	8-2-2
2.33	Pts / game	2.17
1.78	Goals for / game	1.67
0.78	Goals against / game	1.25
56%	Over 2.5	42%
44%	BTTS	50%
56%	Clean sheets	50%
11%	Failed to score	8%
4-1-0	Home record	5-0-1
2-2-0	Away record	3-2-1
W1	Streak	W2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Borussia Dortmund · Real Betis

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.4	Shots	17.5
5.4	Shots on target	6.7
6.4	Corners	5.4
2.22	Cards	1.84
11.0	Fouls	10.5
55	Possession %	52
1.85	xG	1.84
9 matches	sample	11 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.9	Shots	13.5
3.9	Shots on target	5.0
4.3	Corners	4.7
2.11	Cards	2.93
10.4	Fouls	12.5
45	Possession %	48
1.54	xG	1.56
9 matches	sample	11 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Borussia Dortmund	Metric	Real Betis
1.20	Goals scored	2.20 (better)
0.80 (better)	Goals conceded	1.80
1.74	Expected goals (xG)	1.84 (better)
	Big chances
4.80	Shots on target	6.20 (better)
14.20	Total shots	16.20 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
8.20 (better)	Corners	4.60
56.8 (better)	Possession %	48.4
549 (better)	Passes	496
	Tackles
10.80 (better)	Fouls	11.00
1.60	Offsides	1.25 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.40 (better)	Yellow cards	2.20
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Borussia Dortmund wins: 1
Draws: 0
Real Betis wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Borussia Dortmund v Real Betis2–12026-11-04

UEFA Champions League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Paris Saint Germain	4	4	0	0	+15	12	Paris Saint Germain won 4 of the last 4
2	Real Madrid	4	4	0	0	+6	12	Real Madrid won 4 of the last 4
3	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	+5	10	Arsenal won 3 of the last 4
4	Como	4	3	0	1	+13	9	Como won 3 of the last 4
5	Barcelona	4	3	0	1	+8	9	Barcelona won 3 of the last 4
6	Aston Villa	4	3	0	1	+6	9	Aston Villa won 3 of the last 4
7	Manchester City	4	3	0	1	+5	9	Manchester City won 3 of the last 4
8	Liverpool	4	3	0	1	+4	9	Liverpool won 3 of the last 4
9	Club Brugge KV	4	3	0	1	+4	9	Club Brugge KV won 3 of the last 4
10	Sporting CP	4	3	0	1	+4	9	Sporting CP won 3 of the last 4
11	Real Betis	4	3	0	1	+2	9	Real Betis won 3 of the last 4
12	Borussia Dortmund	4	3	0	1	+2	9	Borussia Dortmund won 3 of the last 4
13	Bayern München	4	2	2	0	+7	8	Bayern München won 2 of the last 4
14	VfB Stuttgart	4	2	1	1	+3	7	VfB Stuttgart won 2 of the last 4
15	Inter	4	2	0	2	+2	6	Inter won 2 of the last 4
16	Lask Linz	4	2	0	2	+1	6	Lask Linz won 2 of the last 4
17	Manchester United	4	2	0	2	0	6	Manchester United won 2 of the last 4
18	Galatasaray	4	2	0	2	-1	6	Galatasaray won 2 of the last 4
19	Fenerbahçe	4	1	2	1	-5	5	Fenerbahçe won 1 of the last 4
20	AS Roma	4	1	1	2	+2	4	AS Roma won 1 of the last 4
21	Shakhtar Donetsk	4	1	1	2	0	4	Shakhtar Donetsk won 1 of the last 4
22	Viking	4	1	1	2	-1	4	Viking won 1 of the last 4
23	Atletico Madrid	4	1	1	2	-1	4	Atletico Madrid won 1 of the last 4
24	PSV Eindhoven	4	1	1	2	-1	4	PSV Eindhoven won 1 of the last 4
25	Bodo/Glimt	4	1	1	2	-5	4	Bodo/Glimt won 1 of the last 4
26	FC Porto	4	1	0	3	-1	3	FC Porto won 1 of the last 4
27	Napoli	4	1	0	3	-5	3	Napoli won 1 of the last 4
28	Villarreal	4	1	0	3	-6	3	Villarreal won 1 of the last 4
29	AEK Athens FC	4	1	0	3	-6	3	AEK Athens FC won 1 of the last 4
30	RB Leipzig	4	1	0	3	-6	3	RB Leipzig won 1 of the last 4
31	Sabah FA	4	1	0	3	-6	3	Sabah FA won 1 of the last 4
32	Feyenoord	4	1	0	3	-7	3	Feyenoord won 1 of the last 4
33	Lens	4	1	0	3	-12	3	Lens won 1 of the last 4
34	Slavia Praha	4	0	1	3	-4	1	Slavia Praha won 0 of the last 4
35	Lille	4	0	1	3	-6	1	Lille won 0 of the last 4
36	Slovan Bratislava	4	0	0	4	-16	0	Slovan Bratislava won 0 of the last 4