Manchester United v AS Roma

18th3–23rd

20:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Manchester United		AS Roma
15	Shots	7
6	Shots on target	4
3	Corners	1
11	Fouls	14
3	Yellow cards	3
1	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	2
504	Passes	458
52%	Possession %	48%
2.78	xG	1.66

Over 1.5: 92%
Over 2.5: 78%
Over 3.5: 59%
Both score: 76%

Model pick: AS Roma 46%
Likely score: 1-2 8%
Expected goals: 1.90 – 2.22

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

AS Roma

2.86Marathonbet · fair 2.58 · qualifies at 2.66+ · 1.43u

Why this price?

Back AS Roma to win at 2.86 with Marathonbet.

Our model puts the chance at 46% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 34%; we judge it at 39%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.58. The offered 2.86 implies only 35%, so the price is 10.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.43 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Manchester United 1.90, AS Roma 2.22.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Over 2.5

1.57Betano · fair 1.47 · qualifies at 1.53+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back over 2.5 goals at 1.57 with Betano — 3 goals or more in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 78% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 61%; we judge it at 68%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.47. The offered 1.57 implies only 64%, so the price is 6.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Manchester United 1.90, AS Roma 2.22.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Manchester United	33.6%	2.98	2.35 Bet365	42.6%	-9.0
Match result	Draw	20.9%	4.79	4.15 Betano	24.1%	-3.2
Match result	AS Roma	45.6%	2.19	3.00 Betano	33.3%	+12.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	92.0%	1.09	1.17 Bet365	85.5%	+6.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	8.0%	12.49	6.00 Betfair	16.7%	-8.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	77.8%	1.28	1.52 Betano	65.8%	+12.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	22.2%	4.51	2.65 Betano	37.7%	-15.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	23.9%	4.18	2.75 Betfair	36.4%	-12.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	58.9%	1.70	2.30 Bet365	43.5%	+15.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	41.1%	2.43	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-18.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	76.1%	1.31	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	+9.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

AS Roma favoured against Manchester United

Our model makes Manchester United 34% to win this UEFA Champions League fixture, with the draw at 21% and AS Roma at 46%. The goal projection is 1.90 for Manchester United against 2.22 for AS Roma — a clear edge to AS Roma on expected output. A combined 4.12 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 78% and both teams to score at 76%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 8%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-2 8%; 2-2 7%; 1-1 7%; 2-1 7%; 1-3 6%

This season

Season records for Manchester United and AS Roma
Manchester United		AS Roma
10	Played	11
1-5-4	W-D-L	8-3-0
0.80	Pts / game	2.45
1.40	Goals for / game	2.82
1.90	Goals against / game	0.91
40%	Over 2.5	73%
60%	BTTS	45%
0%	Clean sheets	55%
40%	Failed to score	9%
1-2-2	Home record	5-1-0
0-3-2	Away record	3-2-0
D1	Streak	W3

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Manchester United · AS Roma

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
16.2	Shots	17.2
5.1	Shots on target	6.1
5.8	Corners	6.1
2.82	Cards	2.02
12.1	Fouls	11.5
49	Possession %	56
1.59	xG	2.17
9 matches	sample	11 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.7	Shots	12.6
5.6	Shots on target	4.7
2.9	Corners	3.9
1.90	Cards	1.75
12.2	Fouls	8.8
51	Possession %	44
1.99	xG	1.58
9 matches	sample	11 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Manchester United	Metric	AS Roma
0.60	Goals scored	2.40 (better)
2.20	Goals conceded	1.40 (better)
0.99	Expected goals (xG)	1.80 (better)
	Big chances
4.00	Shots on target	5.60 (better)
12.80	Total shots	17.60 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.20	Corners	6.20 (better)
47.8	Possession %	57.6 (better)
496	Passes	552 (better)
	Tackles
11.00	Fouls	11.00
1.60 (better)	Offsides	2.40
	Throw-ins
2.80	Yellow cards	2.40 (better)
0.25 (better)	Red cards	0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Manchester United wins: 1
Draws: 0
AS Roma wins: 0
Goals / game: 5.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Manchester United v AS Roma3–22026-11-03

UEFA Champions League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Paris Saint Germain	4	4	0	0	+15	12	Paris Saint Germain won 4 of the last 4
2	Real Madrid	4	4	0	0	+6	12	Real Madrid won 4 of the last 4
3	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	+5	10	Arsenal won 3 of the last 4
4	Como	4	3	0	1	+13	9	Como won 3 of the last 4
5	Barcelona	4	3	0	1	+8	9	Barcelona won 3 of the last 4
6	Aston Villa	4	3	0	1	+6	9	Aston Villa won 3 of the last 4
7	Manchester City	4	3	0	1	+5	9	Manchester City won 3 of the last 4
8	Liverpool	4	3	0	1	+4	9	Liverpool won 3 of the last 4
9	Club Brugge KV	4	3	0	1	+4	9	Club Brugge KV won 3 of the last 4
10	Sporting CP	4	3	0	1	+4	9	Sporting CP won 3 of the last 4
11	Real Betis	4	3	0	1	+2	9	Real Betis won 3 of the last 4
12	Borussia Dortmund	4	3	0	1	+2	9	Borussia Dortmund won 3 of the last 4
13	Bayern München	4	2	2	0	+7	8	Bayern München won 2 of the last 4
14	VfB Stuttgart	4	2	1	1	+3	7	VfB Stuttgart won 2 of the last 4
15	Inter	4	2	0	2	+2	6	Inter won 2 of the last 4
16	Lask Linz	4	2	0	2	+1	6	Lask Linz won 2 of the last 4
17	Manchester United	4	2	0	2	0	6	Manchester United won 2 of the last 4
18	Galatasaray	4	2	0	2	-1	6	Galatasaray won 2 of the last 4
19	Fenerbahçe	4	1	2	1	-5	5	Fenerbahçe won 1 of the last 4
20	AS Roma	4	1	1	2	+2	4	AS Roma won 1 of the last 4
21	Shakhtar Donetsk	4	1	1	2	0	4	Shakhtar Donetsk won 1 of the last 4
22	Viking	4	1	1	2	-1	4	Viking won 1 of the last 4
23	Atletico Madrid	4	1	1	2	-1	4	Atletico Madrid won 1 of the last 4
24	PSV Eindhoven	4	1	1	2	-1	4	PSV Eindhoven won 1 of the last 4
25	Bodo/Glimt	4	1	1	2	-5	4	Bodo/Glimt won 1 of the last 4
26	FC Porto	4	1	0	3	-1	3	FC Porto won 1 of the last 4
27	Napoli	4	1	0	3	-5	3	Napoli won 1 of the last 4
28	Villarreal	4	1	0	3	-6	3	Villarreal won 1 of the last 4
29	AEK Athens FC	4	1	0	3	-6	3	AEK Athens FC won 1 of the last 4
30	RB Leipzig	4	1	0	3	-6	3	RB Leipzig won 1 of the last 4
31	Sabah FA	4	1	0	3	-6	3	Sabah FA won 1 of the last 4
32	Feyenoord	4	1	0	3	-7	3	Feyenoord won 1 of the last 4
33	Lens	4	1	0	3	-12	3	Lens won 1 of the last 4
34	Slavia Praha	4	0	1	3	-4	1	Slavia Praha won 0 of the last 4
35	Lille	4	0	1	3	-6	1	Lille won 0 of the last 4
36	Slovan Bratislava	4	0	0	4	-16	0	Slovan Bratislava won 0 of the last 4