RB Leipzig v Manchester City

4th2–33rd

20:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
RB Leipzig		Manchester City
14	Shots	12
6	Shots on target	5
5	Corners	3
20	Fouls	7
4	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	5
361	Passes	676
36%	Possession %	64%
0.91	xG	2.26

Over 1.5: 92%
Over 2.5: 77%
Over 3.5: 58%
Both score: 75%

Model pick: Manchester City 49%
Likely score: 1-2 8%
Expected goals: 1.78 – 2.28

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

RB Leipzig +0.25

3.00Bet365 · fair 2.85 · qualifies at 2.93+ · 0.68u

Why this price?

Back RB Leipzig +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 3.00 with Bet365 — RB Leipzig starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 45% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 28%; we judge it at 35%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.84. The offered 3.00 implies only 33%, so the price is 5.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.68 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: RB Leipzig 1.78, Manchester City 2.28.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	RB Leipzig	30.2%	3.31	5.60 Betano	17.9%	+12.4
Match result	Draw	20.7%	4.83	5.00 BetVictor	20.0%	+0.7
Match result	Manchester City	49.1%	2.04	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	-14.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	91.6%	1.09	1.10 Betano	90.9%	+0.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	8.4%	11.96	8.50 Betfair	11.8%	-3.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	77.1%	1.30	1.32 Betano	75.8%	+1.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	22.9%	4.37	3.70 Betfair	27.0%	-4.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	57.9%	1.73	1.78 Betano	56.2%	+1.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	42.1%	2.37	2.10 Bet365	47.6%	-5.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	75.0%	1.33	1.47 Betfair	68.0%	+7.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	25.0%	4.00	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	-8.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Manchester City favoured against RB Leipzig

Our model makes RB Leipzig 30% to win this UEFA Champions League fixture, with the draw at 21% and Manchester City at 49%. The goal projection is 1.78 for RB Leipzig against 2.28 for Manchester City — a clear edge to Manchester City on expected output. A combined 4.06 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 77% and both teams to score at 75%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 8%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-2 8%; 1-1 7%; 2-2 7%; 2-1 6%; 1-3 6%

This season

Season records for RB Leipzig and Manchester City
RB Leipzig		Manchester City
9	Played	10
6-0-3	W-D-L	7-0-3
2.00	Pts / game	2.10
3.00	Goals for / game	2.10
1.44	Goals against / game	1.30
78%	Over 2.5	70%
33%	BTTS	60%
56%	Clean sheets	30%
11%	Failed to score	10%
5-0-0	Home record	4-0-1
1-0-3	Away record	3-0-2
W3	Streak	L3

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. RB Leipzig · Manchester City

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.1	Shots	17.1
6.4	Shots on target	6.0
4.1	Corners	6.4
1.33	Cards	1.22
11.9	Fouls	10.2
47	Possession %	64
2.18	xG	2.32
9 matches	sample	9 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.4	Shots	11.6
7.0	Shots on target	5.2
6.6	Corners	3.6
1.78	Cards	2.46
12.8	Fouls	15.2
53	Possession %	36
1.85	xG	1.44
9 matches	sample	9 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
RB Leipzig	Metric	Manchester City
1.80	Goals scored	2.80 (better)
2.20	Goals conceded	1.80 (better)
1.93	Expected goals (xG)	2.37 (better)
	Big chances
5.00	Shots on target	6.60 (better)
13.20	Total shots	18.60 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.20	Corners	6.80 (better)
46.8	Possession %	63.4 (better)
435	Passes	606 (better)
	Tackles
10.20 (better)	Fouls	11.00
1.20 (better)	Offsides	1.60
	Throw-ins
1.20 (better)	Yellow cards	1.80
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

RB Leipzig wins: 0
Draws: 0
Manchester City wins: 1
Goals / game: 5.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

RB Leipzig v Manchester City2–32026-11-04

UEFA Champions League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Paris Saint Germain	4	4	0	0	+15	12	Paris Saint Germain won 4 of the last 4
2	Real Madrid	4	4	0	0	+6	12	Real Madrid won 4 of the last 4
3	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	+5	10	Arsenal won 3 of the last 4
4	Como	4	3	0	1	+13	9	Como won 3 of the last 4
5	Barcelona	4	3	0	1	+8	9	Barcelona won 3 of the last 4
6	Aston Villa	4	3	0	1	+6	9	Aston Villa won 3 of the last 4
7	Manchester City	4	3	0	1	+5	9	Manchester City won 3 of the last 4
8	Liverpool	4	3	0	1	+4	9	Liverpool won 3 of the last 4
9	Club Brugge KV	4	3	0	1	+4	9	Club Brugge KV won 3 of the last 4
10	Sporting CP	4	3	0	1	+4	9	Sporting CP won 3 of the last 4
11	Real Betis	4	3	0	1	+2	9	Real Betis won 3 of the last 4
12	Borussia Dortmund	4	3	0	1	+2	9	Borussia Dortmund won 3 of the last 4
13	Bayern München	4	2	2	0	+7	8	Bayern München won 2 of the last 4
14	VfB Stuttgart	4	2	1	1	+3	7	VfB Stuttgart won 2 of the last 4
15	Inter	4	2	0	2	+2	6	Inter won 2 of the last 4
16	Lask Linz	4	2	0	2	+1	6	Lask Linz won 2 of the last 4
17	Manchester United	4	2	0	2	0	6	Manchester United won 2 of the last 4
18	Galatasaray	4	2	0	2	-1	6	Galatasaray won 2 of the last 4
19	Fenerbahçe	4	1	2	1	-5	5	Fenerbahçe won 1 of the last 4
20	AS Roma	4	1	1	2	+2	4	AS Roma won 1 of the last 4
21	Shakhtar Donetsk	4	1	1	2	0	4	Shakhtar Donetsk won 1 of the last 4
22	Viking	4	1	1	2	-1	4	Viking won 1 of the last 4
23	Atletico Madrid	4	1	1	2	-1	4	Atletico Madrid won 1 of the last 4
24	PSV Eindhoven	4	1	1	2	-1	4	PSV Eindhoven won 1 of the last 4
25	Bodo/Glimt	4	1	1	2	-5	4	Bodo/Glimt won 1 of the last 4
26	FC Porto	4	1	0	3	-1	3	FC Porto won 1 of the last 4
27	Napoli	4	1	0	3	-5	3	Napoli won 1 of the last 4
28	Villarreal	4	1	0	3	-6	3	Villarreal won 1 of the last 4
29	AEK Athens FC	4	1	0	3	-6	3	AEK Athens FC won 1 of the last 4
30	RB Leipzig	4	1	0	3	-6	3	RB Leipzig won 1 of the last 4
31	Sabah FA	4	1	0	3	-6	3	Sabah FA won 1 of the last 4
32	Feyenoord	4	1	0	3	-7	3	Feyenoord won 1 of the last 4
33	Lens	4	1	0	3	-12	3	Lens won 1 of the last 4
34	Slavia Praha	4	0	1	3	-4	1	Slavia Praha won 0 of the last 4
35	Lille	4	0	1	3	-6	1	Lille won 0 of the last 4
36	Slovan Bratislava	4	0	0	4	-16	0	Slovan Bratislava won 0 of the last 4