UEFA Europa League · Review

UEFA Europa League league phase matchday 4 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every UEFA Europa League result from league phase matchday 4 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 6 Nov 2026, updated 6 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

UEFA Europa League, league phase matchday 4 (4–5 November 2026), is complete: 18 matches, 48 goals (2.67 a game), six home wins, three draws and nine away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in eight of the 18 and both teams scored in ten.

The result the model rated least likely was Marseille's win in Bayer Leverkusen v Marseille (0–1), which it had at 19%; the one it rated most likely was Benfica's win in Benfica v Lech Poznan (3–1), at 66%.

Match by match

Rennes 0–0 Olympiakos PiraeusWed 4 Nov, 15:30

Before kick-off the model had Rennes 29%, the draw 28% and Olympiakos Piraeus 43%, with Olympiakos Piraeus favoured; it put the draw at 28%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.61–1.03: Olympiakos Piraeus created the better chances. The headline call, Olympiakos Piraeus to win at 43%, did not come in. Pick published: Olympiakos Piraeus 0 at 2.35 (free pick) — void.

AC Milan 0–2 Ferencvarosi TCThu 5 Nov, 17:45

Before kick-off the model had AC Milan 33%, the draw 26% and Ferencvarosi TC 41%, so Ferencvarosi TC winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.05–3.13: Ferencvarosi TC created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 59%, did not come in.

Anderlecht 2–0 Red Bull SalzburgThu 5 Nov, 17:45

Before kick-off the model had Anderlecht 34%, the draw 26% and Red Bull Salzburg 40%, with Red Bull Salzburg favoured; it put Anderlecht winning at 34%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.62–0.58: Anderlecht created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 58%, did not come in. Pick published: Anderlecht -0.75 at 2.15 — won.

Crystal Palace 1–1 1899 HoffenheimThu 5 Nov, 17:45

Before kick-off the model had Crystal Palace 37%, the draw 24% and 1899 Hoffenheim 39%, with 1899 Hoffenheim favoured; it put the draw at 24%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 1.10–1.27: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 66%, came in. Pick published: 1899 Hoffenheim 0 at 2.75 — void.

Levski Sofia 1–0 JagielloniaThu 5 Nov, 17:45

Before kick-off the model had Levski Sofia 43%, the draw 29% and Jagiellonia 28%, so Levski Sofia winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.77–1.05: an even contest on chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 60%, came in. Picks published: Levski Sofia -0.5 at 2.00 — won; Under 2.5 at 2.07 — won.

Lillestrom 0–1 PlzenThu 5 Nov, 17:45

Before kick-off the model had Lillestrom 34%, the draw 25% and Plzen 41%, so Plzen winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.67–2.10: Plzen created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 61%, did not come in. Pick published: Lillestrom -0.5 at 2.70 — lost.

NEC Nijmegen 3–1 Omonia NicosiaThu 5 Nov, 17:45

Before kick-off the model had NEC Nijmegen 41%, the draw 26% and Omonia Nicosia 33%, so NEC Nijmegen winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.56–0.73: NEC Nijmegen created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 57%, came in. Pick published: Omonia Nicosia 0 at 3.10 — lost.

Real Sociedad 1–1 LyonThu 5 Nov, 17:45

Before kick-off the model had Real Sociedad 44%, the draw 23% and Lyon 33%, with Real Sociedad favoured; it put the draw at 23%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 1.40–1.05: Real Sociedad created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 67%, came in. Pick published: Real Sociedad -0.5 at 1.95 — lost.

Sparta Praha 1–3 BournemouthThu 5 Nov, 17:45

Before kick-off the model had Sparta Praha 37%, the draw 25% and Bournemouth 38%, so Bournemouth winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.14–2.31: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 64%, came in.

AZ Alkmaar 1–2 JuventusThu 5 Nov, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had AZ Alkmaar 40%, the draw 27% and Juventus 33%, with AZ Alkmaar favoured; it put Juventus winning at 33%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.27–0.63: AZ Alkmaar created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, both teams to score at 56%, came in.

Bayer Leverkusen 0–1 MarseilleThu 5 Nov, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Bayer Leverkusen 61%, the draw 20% and Marseille 19%, with Bayer Leverkusen favoured; it put Marseille winning at 19%. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 0.94–1.17: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 66%, did not come in. Pick published: Bayer Leverkusen -0.75 at 1.50 — lost.

Benfica 3–1 Lech PoznanThu 5 Nov, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Benfica 66%, the draw 17% and Lech Poznan 17%, so Benfica winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 2.32–0.48: Benfica created the better chances. The headline call, over 3.5 goals at 57%, came in. Pick published: Both teams to score — Yes at 1.95 — won.

Celta Vigo 1–2 Union St. GilloiseThu 5 Nov, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Celta Vigo 24%, the draw 28% and Union St. Gilloise 47%, so Union St. Gilloise winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.08–2.19: Union St. Gilloise created the better chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 58%, did not come in. Pick published: Under 2.5 at 2.27 — lost.

Celtic 3–2 BeşiktaşThu 5 Nov, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Celtic 42%, the draw 24% and Beşiktaş 33%, so Celtic winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.23–1.62: Beşiktaş created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 64%, came in. Pick published: Celtic -0.25 at 2.42 — won.

Hapoel Beer Sheva 0–2 OFIThu 5 Nov, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Hapoel Beer Sheva 43%, the draw 27% and OFI 30%, with Hapoel Beer Sheva favoured; it put OFI winning at 30%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.52–0.75: Hapoel Beer Sheva created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, Hapoel Beer Sheva to win at 43%, did not come in. Pick published: Hapoel Beer Sheva -0.5 at 2.05 — lost.

Sturm Graz 2–3 CeljeThu 5 Nov, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Sturm Graz 52%, the draw 26% and Celje 22%, with Sturm Graz favoured; it put Celje winning at 22%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.92–1.27: Sturm Graz created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, Sturm Graz to win at 52%, did not come in. Picks published: Sturm Graz -0.75 at 1.70 — lost; Under 2.5 at 2.42 — lost.

Sunderland 0–2 Dinamo ZagrebThu 5 Nov, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Sunderland 29%, the draw 25% and Dinamo Zagreb 46%, so Dinamo Zagreb winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.80–1.51: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 61%, did not come in.

Torreense 3–2 Ararat-ArmeniaThu 5 Nov, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Torreense 50%, the draw 24% and Ararat-Armenia 25%, so Torreense winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.90–1.49: Torreense created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 59%, came in. Picks published: Torreense -0.5 at 1.78 (free pick) — won; Over 3.5 at 3.60 — won.

The numbers this season

UEFA Europa League has averaged 2.84 goals a game over 152 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 58% of them and both sides scoring in 47%. Home sides have won 45% of matches, 20% have been drawn and away sides have won 34%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.