UEFA Europa League · Review
UEFA Europa League league phase matchday 2 review: results, xG and what the model said
Every UEFA Europa League result from league phase matchday 2 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.
Published · Written from the site’s own data
UEFA Europa League, league phase matchday 2 (15 October 2026), is complete: 18 matches, 56 goals (3.11 a game), eight home wins, three draws and seven away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of the 18 and both teams scored in twelve.
The result the model rated least likely was the draw in Union St. Gilloise v Real Sociedad (1–1), which it had at 19%; the one it rated most likely was Benfica's win in Benfica v Celtic (4–1), at 69%.
Match by match
AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Hapoel Beer ShevaThu 15 Oct, 17:45
Before kick-off the model had AZ Alkmaar 48%, the draw 28% and Hapoel Beer Sheva 24%, so AZ Alkmaar winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 58%, did not come in.
Celje 0–3 Omonia NicosiaThu 15 Oct, 17:45
Before kick-off the model had Celje 41%, the draw 28% and Omonia Nicosia 31%, with Celje favoured; it put Omonia Nicosia winning at 31%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, Celje to win at 41%, did not come in.
Lech Poznan 0–4 Bayer LeverkusenThu 15 Oct, 17:45
Before kick-off the model had Lech Poznan 40%, the draw 26% and Bayer Leverkusen 35%, with Lech Poznan favoured; it put Bayer Leverkusen winning at 35%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, both teams to score at 60%, did not come in. Pick published: Bayer Leverkusen +0.5 at 1.65 (free pick) — won.
Lyon 3–2 Crystal PalaceThu 15 Oct, 17:45
Before kick-off the model had Lyon 54%, the draw 24% and Crystal Palace 21%, so Lyon winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, Lyon to win at 54%, came in. Pick published: Crystal Palace +0.25 at 2.70 — lost.
Red Bull Salzburg 0–4 AC MilanThu 15 Oct, 17:45
Before kick-off the model had Red Bull Salzburg 53%, the draw 24% and AC Milan 23%, with Red Bull Salzburg favoured; it put AC Milan winning at 23%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, both teams to score at 57%, did not come in. Pick published: Red Bull Salzburg +0.5 at 2.05 — lost.
Sparta Praha 1–1 LillestromThu 15 Oct, 17:45
Before kick-off the model had Sparta Praha 62%, the draw 22% and Lillestrom 16%, with Sparta Praha favoured; it put the draw at 22%. The likeliest score had been 2-0. The headline call, Sparta Praha to win at 62%, did not come in. Pick published: Sparta Praha -0.75 at 1.45 — lost.
Torreense 1–2 SunderlandThu 15 Oct, 17:45
Before kick-off the model had Torreense 46%, the draw 28% and Sunderland 27%, with Torreense favoured; it put Sunderland winning at 27%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, Torreense to win at 46%, did not come in.
Union St. Gilloise 1–1 Real SociedadThu 15 Oct, 17:45
Before kick-off the model had Union St. Gilloise 68%, the draw 19% and Real Sociedad 13%, with Union St. Gilloise favoured; it put the draw at 19%. The likeliest score had been 2-0. The headline call, Union St. Gilloise to win at 68%, did not come in.
1899 Hoffenheim 2–3 BeşiktaşThu 15 Oct, 20:00
Before kick-off the model had 1899 Hoffenheim 35%, the draw 26% and Beşiktaş 39%, so Beşiktaş winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, both teams to score at 60%, came in. Pick published: Both teams to score — No at 2.88 — lost.
Benfica 4–1 CelticThu 15 Oct, 20:00
Before kick-off the model had Benfica 69%, the draw 17% and Celtic 14%, so Benfica winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-1. The headline call, over 3.5 goals at 54%, came in. Pick published: Both teams to score — Yes at 1.95 — won.
Bournemouth 3–0 Sturm GrazThu 15 Oct, 20:00
Before kick-off the model had Bournemouth 48%, the draw 27% and Sturm Graz 25%, so Bournemouth winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, Bournemouth to win at 48%, came in.
Celta Vigo 1–2 JuventusThu 15 Oct, 20:00
Before kick-off the model had Celta Vigo 30%, the draw 27% and Juventus 43%, so Juventus winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, Juventus to win at 43%, came in. Pick published: Celta Vigo -0.25 at 2.95 — lost.
Dinamo Zagreb 1–0 AnderlechtThu 15 Oct, 20:00
Before kick-off the model had Dinamo Zagreb 59%, the draw 21% and Anderlecht 20%, so Dinamo Zagreb winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-1. The headline call, both teams to score at 63%, did not come in. Pick published: Dinamo Zagreb -0.25 at 1.65 — won.
Ferencvarosi TC 2–1 PlzenThu 15 Oct, 20:00
Before kick-off the model had Ferencvarosi TC 57%, the draw 23% and Plzen 21%, so Ferencvarosi TC winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, both teams to score at 59%, came in. Pick published: Ferencvarosi TC -0.25 at 1.70 — won.
Jagiellonia 3–1 Ararat-ArmeniaThu 15 Oct, 20:00
Before kick-off the model had Jagiellonia 53%, the draw 24% and Ararat-Armenia 23%, so Jagiellonia winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, both teams to score at 56%, came in. Pick published: Jagiellonia -0.75 at 1.53 — won.
Marseille 0–1 Olympiakos PiraeusThu 15 Oct, 20:00
Before kick-off the model had Marseille 36%, the draw 29% and Olympiakos Piraeus 35%, with Marseille favoured; it put Olympiakos Piraeus winning at 35%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 56%, came in. Pick published: Marseille -0.5 at 2.18 — lost.
NEC Nijmegen 1–1 Levski SofiaThu 15 Oct, 20:00
Before kick-off the model had NEC Nijmegen 39%, the draw 29% and Levski Sofia 32%, with NEC Nijmegen favoured; it put the draw at 29%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 56%, came in. Pick published: Levski Sofia at 4.00 — lost.
Rennes 2–1 OFIThu 15 Oct, 20:00
Before kick-off the model had Rennes 54%, the draw 21% and OFI 25%, so Rennes winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score, 2-1, was the one that came. The headline call, both teams to score at 70%, came in.
The numbers this season
UEFA Europa League has averaged 2.76 goals a game over 116 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 57% of them and both sides scoring in 46%. Home sides have won 49% of matches, 21% have been drawn and away sides have won 30%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.
About these figures
The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.
The results
Each result with the headline call the model published and whether it came in.
UEFA Europa League18Prediction
Probabilities are statistical opinion, not advice, and no outcome is certain. Past predictions don’t indicate future results. Over 18s only; never stake money you cannot afford to lose.