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UEFA Europa League predictions

Every UEFA Europa League match in the next 14 days with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score and one headline call, published at least 24 hours before kick-off. The table, team statistics and results are on the UEFA Europa League page.

18 matches in the next 14 days, every one with a forecast published. The strongest favourite is Dinamo Zagreb, 63% against NEC Nijmegen at home; the most evenly balanced game is Lillestrom v Real Sociedad (Lillestrom 37%, draw 27%, Real Sociedad 36%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Juventus v Rennes, at 3.67.

Every match, one prediction

Thu 22 Oct

UEFA Europa League18Prediction

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Match by match

OFI v Bayer LeverkusenThu 22 Oct, 17:45

Our model makes OFI 25%, the draw 24% and Bayer Leverkusen 51%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.02 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is Bayer Leverkusen to win at 51%. OFI are 5th on 10 points from 6; Bayer Leverkusen are 4th on 10 points from 5. OFI have won two of their last five; Bayer Leverkusen have won three of their last five.

Juventus v RennesThu 22 Oct, 17:45

Our model makes Juventus 62%, the draw 19% and Rennes 18%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.67 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 66%. The headline call is both teams to score at 66%. Juventus are 6th on 11 points from 6; Rennes are 3rd on 13 points from 6. Juventus have won two of their last five; Rennes have won four of their last five.

Lech Poznan v SunderlandThu 22 Oct, 17:45

Our model makes Lech Poznan 61%, the draw 22% and Sunderland 17%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.03 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is Lech Poznan to win at 61%. Lech Poznan are 2nd on 22 points from 9; Sunderland are 17th on 4 points from 6. Lech Poznan have won four of their last five; Sunderland have won one of their last five.

Ararat-Armenia v AZ AlkmaarThu 22 Oct, 17:45

Our model makes Ararat-Armenia 30%, the draw 27% and AZ Alkmaar 43%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.62 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is AZ Alkmaar to win at 43%. Ararat-Armenia are 33rd on 0 points from 2; AZ Alkmaar are 3rd on 19 points from 8. Ararat-Armenia have won two of their last five; AZ Alkmaar have won three of their last five.

Union St. Gilloise v Hapoel Beer ShevaThu 22 Oct, 17:45

Our model makes Union St. Gilloise 58%, the draw 26% and Hapoel Beer Sheva 16%. The likeliest score is 1-0 (15%), 2.36 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 42%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 58%. Union St. Gilloise are 4th on 20 points from 8; Hapoel Beer Sheva are 24th on 1 point from 2. Union St. Gilloise are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw); Hapoel Beer Sheva have won four of their last five.

Ferencvarosi TC v TorreenseThu 22 Oct, 17:45

Our model makes Ferencvarosi TC 54%, the draw 25% and Torreense 21%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.64 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 51%. The headline call is Ferencvarosi TC to win at 54%. Ferencvarosi TC are 6th on 13 points from 8. Ferencvarosi TC are unbeaten in five (two wins, three draws).

Sturm Graz v MarseilleThu 22 Oct, 17:45

Our model makes Sturm Graz 44%, the draw 27% and Marseille 29%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.70 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is Sturm Graz to win at 44%. Sturm Graz are 4th on 14 points from 8; Marseille are 13th on 6 points from 6. Sturm Graz have won two of their last five; Marseille have won one of their last five.

Dinamo Zagreb v NEC NijmegenThu 22 Oct, 17:45

Our model makes Dinamo Zagreb 63%, the draw 19% and NEC Nijmegen 17%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.57 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 64%. The headline call is both teams to score at 64%. Dinamo Zagreb are 5th on 13 points from 7; NEC Nijmegen are 11th on 9 points from 8. Dinamo Zagreb have won two of their last five; NEC Nijmegen are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats).

Beşiktaş v Crystal PalaceThu 22 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Beşiktaş 52%, the draw 24% and Crystal Palace 24%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 2.96 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 58%. The headline call is both teams to score at 58%. Beşiktaş are 2nd on 15 points from 7; Crystal Palace are 12th on 7 points from 6. Beşiktaş have won four of their last five; Crystal Palace have won two of their last five.

Celje v Red Bull SalzburgThu 22 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Celje 32%, the draw 26% and Red Bull Salzburg 43%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.86 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%. The headline call is both teams to score at 58%. Celje are 35th on 0 points from 2; Red Bull Salzburg are 2nd on 18 points from 8. Celje have won one of their last five; Red Bull Salzburg are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws).

Omonia Nicosia v BenficaThu 22 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Omonia Nicosia 20%, the draw 24% and Benfica 57%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 2.89 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is Benfica to win at 57%. Omonia Nicosia are 6th on 6 points from 2; Benfica are 2nd on 19 points from 8. Benfica have won four of their last five.

Plzen v Levski SofiaThu 22 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Plzen 45%, the draw 27% and Levski Sofia 27%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.56 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%. The headline call is Plzen to win at 45%. Plzen are 11th on 13 points from 10; Levski Sofia are 25th on 1 point from 2. Plzen have won two of their last five; Levski Sofia have won two of their last five.

Olympiakos Piraeus v Sparta PrahaThu 22 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Olympiakos Piraeus 40%, the draw 30% and Sparta Praha 30%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.23 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 46%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 61%. Olympiakos Piraeus are 3rd on 13 points from 6; Sparta Praha are 3rd on 18 points from 10. Olympiakos Piraeus have won three of their last five; Sparta Praha have won three of their last five.

Jagiellonia v AnderlechtThu 22 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Jagiellonia 45%, the draw 25% and Anderlecht 30%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.97 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is both teams to score at 60%. Jagiellonia are 10th on 12 points from 9; Anderlecht are 5th on 16 points from 8. Jagiellonia have won one of their last five; Anderlecht are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw).

Lillestrom v Real SociedadThu 22 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Lillestrom 37%, the draw 27% and Real Sociedad 36%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.79 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%. The headline call is both teams to score at 57%. Lillestrom are 6th on 33 points from 22; Real Sociedad are 6th on 13 points from 8. Lillestrom have won two of their last five; Real Sociedad have won three of their last five.

Celtic v Celta VigoThu 22 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Celtic 49%, the draw 26% and Celta Vigo 25%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.65 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 52%. The headline call is Celtic to win at 49%. Celtic are 1st on 21 points from 8; Celta Vigo are 9th on 8 points from 8. Celtic have won four of their last five; Celta Vigo are unbeaten in five (one win, four draws).

1899 Hoffenheim v LyonThu 22 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes 1899 Hoffenheim 34%, the draw 26% and Lyon 40%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.93 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is both teams to score at 60%. 1899 Hoffenheim are 17th on 3 points from 5; Lyon are 4th on 11 points from 6. 1899 Hoffenheim have won one of their last five; Lyon have won two of their last five.

Bournemouth v AC MilanThu 22 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Bournemouth 46%, the draw 25% and AC Milan 29%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.90 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%. The headline call is both teams to score at 58%. Bournemouth are 18th on 3 points from 6; AC Milan are 5th on 12 points from 6. Bournemouth are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats); AC Milan are unbeaten in five (two wins, three draws).

The numbers this season

UEFA Europa League has averaged 2.76 goals a game over 116 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 57% of them and both sides scoring in 46%. Home sides have won 49% of matches, 21% have been drawn and away sides have won 30%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these predictions

How are UEFA Europa League predictions made?
A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.
When are UEFA Europa League predictions published?
At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.
How often do home teams win in UEFA Europa League?
49% of matches this season, over 116 played, with 21% drawn and 30% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 2.76 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 57%.

The method in full is under how it works; the model is explained on its own page. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.

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