Ararat-Armenia v AZ Alkmaar

33rd3rd

16:45 UTC

Over 1.5: 74%
Over 2.5: 49%
Over 3.5: 27%
Both score: 53%

Model pick: AZ Alkmaar 43%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.17 – 1.45

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the marketMembers

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11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.

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A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

AZ Alkmaar favoured against Ararat-Armenia

Our model makes Ararat-Armenia 30% to win this UEFA Europa League fixture, with the draw at 27% and AZ Alkmaar at 43%. The goal projection is 1.17 for Ararat-Armenia against 1.45 for AZ Alkmaar — a clear edge to AZ Alkmaar on expected output. A combined 2.62 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 10%; 1-2 9%; 1-0 8%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Ararat-Armenia and AZ Alkmaar
Ararat-Armenia		AZ Alkmaar
6	Played	8
3-0-3	W-D-L	6-1-1
1.50	Pts / game	2.38
1.50	Goals for / game	2.25
1.33	Goals against / game	1.00
50%	Over 2.5	38%
50%	BTTS	50%
33%	Clean sheets	38%
17%	Failed to score	13%
3-0-0	Home record	3-1-0
0-0-3	Away record	3-0-1
L1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Ararat-Armenia · AZ Alkmaar

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—	Shots	14.5
—	Shots on target	5.0
—	Corners	5.5
—	Cards	2.00
—	Fouls	15.0
—	Possession %	60
—	xG	1.70
—	sample	2 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—	Shots	9.0
—	Shots on target	2.5
—	Corners	4.5
—	Cards	1.00
—	Fouls	12.0
—	Possession %	41
—	xG	1.17
—	sample	2 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Ararat-Armenia	Metric	AZ Alkmaar
2.40 (better)	Goals scored	1.00
1.20	Goals conceded	1.20
	Expected goals (xG)	1.68
	Big chances
2.00	Shots on target	5.00 (better)
13.00	Total shots	15.40 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
2.00	Corners	6.00 (better)
33.0	Possession %	59.2 (better)
354	Passes	557 (better)
	Tackles
16.00	Fouls	12.40 (better)
2.00	Offsides	1.60 (better)
	Throw-ins
3.00	Yellow cards	1.60 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to headFull record →

No previous meetings on record.

UEFA Europa League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Juventus	2	2	0	0	+6	6	Juventus won 2 of the last 2
2	Bayer Leverkusen	2	2	0	0	+6	6	Bayer Leverkusen won 2 of the last 2
3	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+5	6	Benfica won 2 of the last 2
4	Beşiktaş	2	2	0	0	+4	6	Beşiktaş won 2 of the last 2
5	Bournemouth	2	2	0	0	+4	6	Bournemouth won 2 of the last 2
6	Omonia Nicosia	2	2	0	0	+4	6	Omonia Nicosia won 2 of the last 2
7	Ferencvarosi TC	2	2	0	0	+3	6	Ferencvarosi TC won 2 of the last 2
8	Lyon	2	2	0	0	+2	6	Lyon won 2 of the last 2
9	Olympiakos Piraeus	2	2	0	0	+2	6	Olympiakos Piraeus won 2 of the last 2
10	Sunderland	2	2	0	0	+2	6	Sunderland won 2 of the last 2
11	Sparta Praha	2	1	1	0	+3	4	Sparta Praha won 1 of the last 2
12	Union St. Gilloise	2	1	1	0	+3	4	Union St. Gilloise won 1 of the last 2
13	Rennes	2	1	1	0	+1	4	Rennes won 1 of the last 2
14	Dinamo Zagreb	2	1	1	0	+1	4	Dinamo Zagreb won 1 of the last 2
15	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	+3	3	Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 2
16	AC Milan	2	1	0	1	+2	3	AC Milan won 1 of the last 2
17	Jagiellonia	2	1	0	1	+1	3	Jagiellonia won 1 of the last 2
18	OFI	2	1	0	1	+1	3	OFI won 1 of the last 2
19	Torreense	2	1	0	1	0	3	Torreense won 1 of the last 2
20	AZ Alkmaar	2	1	0	1	0	3	AZ Alkmaar won 1 of the last 2
21	Red Bull Salzburg	2	1	0	1	-3	3	Red Bull Salzburg won 1 of the last 2
22	Lillestrom	2	0	1	1	-1	1	Lillestrom won 0 of the last 2
23	Real Sociedad	2	0	1	1	-1	1	Real Sociedad won 0 of the last 2
24	Hapoel Beer Sheva	2	0	1	1	-1	1	Hapoel Beer Sheva won 0 of the last 2
25	Levski Sofia	2	0	1	1	-1	1	Levski Sofia won 0 of the last 2
26	Sturm Graz	2	0	1	1	-3	1	Sturm Graz won 0 of the last 2
27	NEC Nijmegen	2	0	1	1	-5	1	NEC Nijmegen won 0 of the last 2
28	Anderlecht	2	0	0	2	-2	0	Anderlecht won 0 of the last 2
29	Celta Vigo	2	0	0	2	-2	0	Celta Vigo won 0 of the last 2
30	1899 Hoffenheim	2	0	0	2	-3	0	1899 Hoffenheim won 0 of the last 2
31	Marseille	2	0	0	2	-4	0	Marseille won 0 of the last 2
32	Plzen	2	0	0	2	-4	0	Plzen won 0 of the last 2
33	Ararat-Armenia	2	0	0	2	-5	0	Ararat-Armenia won 0 of the last 2
34	Celtic	2	0	0	2	-5	0	Celtic won 0 of the last 2
35	Celje	2	0	0	2	-5	0	Celje won 0 of the last 2
36	Lech Poznan	2	0	0	2	-8	0	Lech Poznan won 0 of the last 2