Sparta Praha v 
Bournemouth
Match statistics
| Sparta Praha | Bournemouth | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Shots | 20 |
| 3 | Shots on target | 9 |
| 3 | Corners | 10 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 386 | Passes | 539 |
| 41% | Possession % | 59% |
| 2.14 | xG | 2.31 |
- Over 1.5
- 83%
- Over 2.5
- 62%
- Over 3.5
- 40%
- Both score
- 64%
- Model pick
- Bournemouth 38%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 1.58 – 1.61
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Sparta Praha | 37.2% | 2.69 | 7.50 Bet365 | 13.3% | +23.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 24.5% | 4.08 | 5.00 Dafabet | 20.0% | +4.5 |
| Match result | Bournemouth | 38.3% | 2.61 | 1.55 Betfair | 64.5% | -26.2 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 83.3% | 1.20 | 1.19 Betano | 84.0% | -0.8 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 16.7% | 5.97 | 5.50 Betfair | 18.2% | -1.4 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 61.8% | 1.62 | 1.62 Bet365 | 61.7% | +0.1 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 38.2% | 2.62 | 2.55 Betfair | 39.2% | -1.0 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 39.5% | 2.53 | 2.55 Betfair | 39.2% | +0.3 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 60.5% | 1.65 | 1.60 Betfair | 62.5% | -2.0 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 64.0% | 1.56 | 1.75 Bet365 | 57.1% | +6.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 36.0% | 2.78 | 2.10 William Hill | 47.6% | -11.7 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Sparta Praha v Bournemouth: too close to call
Our model makes Sparta Praha 37% to win this UEFA Europa League fixture, with the draw at 25% and Bournemouth at 38%. The goal projection is 1.58 for Sparta Praha against 1.61 for Bournemouth — almost nothing to Bournemouth on expected output. A combined 3.19 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 62% and both teams to score at 64%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 1-2 8%
- 2-1 8%
- 2-2 7%
- 0-1 6%
This season
| Sparta Praha | Bournemouth | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Played | 10 |
| 7-3-4 | W-D-L | 4-3-3 |
| 1.71 | Pts / game | 1.50 |
| 1.86 | Goals for / game | 1.60 |
| 1.00 | Goals against / game | 1.40 |
| 57% | Over 2.5 | 60% |
| 43% | BTTS | 60% |
| 43% | Clean sheets | 30% |
| 29% | Failed to score | 10% |
| 5-0-1 | Home record | 2-2-1 |
| 2-3-3 | Away record | 2-1-2 |
| D2 | Streak | W4 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Sparta Praha · Bournemouth
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 17.1 | Shots | 16.2 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.4 | Shots on target | 5.3 |
| 4.9 | Corners | 5.9 |
| 3.03 | Cards | 2.33 |
| 13.2 | Fouls | 14.6 |
| 52 | Possession % | 54 |
| 1.81 | xG | 2.31 |
| 9 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Conceded
| 12.9 | Shots | 9.2 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Shots on target | 2.3 |
| 5.8 | Corners | 3.1 |
| 1.92 | Cards | 2.71 |
| 10.8 | Fouls | 11.6 |
| 48 | Possession % | 46 |
| 1.31 | xG | 0.98 |
| 9 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Form comparison
| Sparta Praha | Metric | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored | 2.80 (better) |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded | 0.00 (better) |
| 1.35 | Expected goals (xG) | 3.05 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 6.00 | Shots on target | 6.20 (better) |
| 17.25 | Total shots | 20.20 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.00 | Corners | 5.60 (better) |
| 52.0 | Possession % | 55.4 (better) |
| 418 | Passes | 476 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 14.50 (better) | Fouls | 15.00 |
| 2.00 | Offsides | 1.80 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 3.25 | Yellow cards | 2.40 (better) |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Sparta Praha wins
- 0
- Draws
- 0
- Bournemouth wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 4.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 100%
- Sparta Praha v Bournemouth1–32026-11-05
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +10 | 12 | Benfica won 4 of the last 4 |
| 2 | Bournemouth | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +9 | 12 | Bournemouth won 4 of the last 4 |
| 3 | Ferencvarosi TC | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 12 | Ferencvarosi TC won 4 of the last 4 |
| 4 | Union St. Gilloise | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +8 | 10 | Union St. Gilloise won 3 of the last 4 |
| 5 | Juventus | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 10 | Juventus won 3 of the last 4 |
| 6 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 10 | Olympiakos Piraeus won 3 of the last 4 |
| 7 | Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +7 | 9 | Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of the last 4 |
| 8 | Beşiktaş | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 | Beşiktaş won 2 of the last 4 |
| 9 | Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 | Dinamo Zagreb won 2 of the last 4 |
| 10 | Levski Sofia | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 | Levski Sofia won 2 of the last 4 |
| 11 | Sunderland | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | Sunderland won 2 of the last 4 |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 | NEC Nijmegen won 2 of the last 4 |
| 13 | Lyon | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 | Lyon won 2 of the last 4 |
| 14 | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 6 | AZ Alkmaar won 2 of the last 4 |
| 15 | Anderlecht | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 6 | Anderlecht won 2 of the last 4 |
| 16 | OFI | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 6 | OFI won 2 of the last 4 |
| 17 | Rennes | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 | Rennes won 1 of the last 4 |
| 18 | Omonia Nicosia | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 | Omonia Nicosia won 2 of the last 4 |
| 19 | Torreense | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 | Torreense won 2 of the last 4 |
| 20 | Real Sociedad | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 5 | Real Sociedad won 1 of the last 4 |
| 21 | Crystal Palace | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 5 | Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 4 |
| 22 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1899 Hoffenheim won 1 of the last 4 |
| 23 | Sparta Praha | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | Sparta Praha won 1 of the last 4 |
| 24 | Sturm Graz | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 | Sturm Graz won 1 of the last 4 |
| 25 | Celje | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 4 | Celje won 1 of the last 4 |
| 26 | Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 4 | Red Bull Salzburg won 1 of the last 4 |
| 27 | Celta Vigo | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 | Celta Vigo won 1 of the last 4 |
| 28 | AC Milan | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 | AC Milan won 1 of the last 4 |
| 29 | Jagiellonia | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 | Jagiellonia won 1 of the last 4 |
| 30 | Plzen | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 | Plzen won 1 of the last 4 |
| 31 | Marseille | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 | Marseille won 1 of the last 4 |
| 32 | Celtic | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 | Celtic won 1 of the last 4 |
| 33 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 | Hapoel Beer Sheva won 0 of the last 4 |
| 34 | Lillestrom | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -8 | 1 | Lillestrom won 0 of the last 4 |
| 35 | Lech Poznan | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 1 | Lech Poznan won 0 of the last 4 |
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 | Ararat-Armenia won 0 of the last 4 |