Real Sociedad v 
Lyon
Match statistics
| Real Sociedad | Lyon | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 23 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Offsides | 4 |
| 443 | Passes | 509 |
| 47% | Possession % | 53% |
| 1.40 | xG | 1.05 |
- Over 1.5
- 86%
- Over 2.5
- 66%
- Over 3.5
- 45%
- Both score
- 67%
- Model pick
- Real Sociedad 44%
- Likely score
- 1-1 10%
- Expected goals
- 1.84 – 1.58
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Real Sociedad -0.5
Why this price?
Back Real Sociedad -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.95 with Betano — Real Sociedad must win by more than 0.5 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 44% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 65%; we judge it at 57%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.77. The offered 1.95 implies only 51%, so the price is 10.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Real Sociedad 1.84, Lyon 1.58.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Real Sociedad | 43.9% | 2.28 | 1.85 Dafabet | 54.1% | -10.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 23.3% | 4.29 | 4.35 Betano | 23.0% | +0.3 |
| Match result | Lyon | 32.8% | 3.05 | 5.10 Betano | 19.6% | +13.2 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 86.0% | 1.16 | 1.17 Betano | 85.5% | +0.5 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 14.0% | 7.15 | 6.00 Betfair | 16.7% | -2.7 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 66.4% | 1.51 | 1.57 Bet365 | 63.7% | +2.7 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 33.6% | 2.98 | 2.63 Betfair | 38.0% | -4.4 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 44.6% | 2.24 | 2.45 Betfair | 40.8% | +3.8 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 55.4% | 1.80 | 1.67 Bet365 | 59.9% | -4.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 67.2% | 1.49 | 1.57 Bet365 | 63.7% | +3.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 32.8% | 3.05 | 2.55 Betfair | 39.2% | -6.5 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Real Sociedad favoured against Lyon
Our model makes Real Sociedad 44% to win this UEFA Europa League fixture, with the draw at 23% and Lyon at 33%. The goal projection is 1.84 for Real Sociedad against 1.58 for Lyon — a clear edge to Real Sociedad on expected output. A combined 3.42 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 66% and both teams to score at 67%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 10%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-2 7%
- 2-2 7%
- 2-0 6%
This season
| Real Sociedad | Lyon | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Played | 10 |
| 7-1-4 | W-D-L | 5-2-3 |
| 1.83 | Pts / game | 1.70 |
| 1.75 | Goals for / game | 1.50 |
| 1.67 | Goals against / game | 0.90 |
| 75% | Over 2.5 | 40% |
| 67% | BTTS | 40% |
| 17% | Clean sheets | 40% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 30% |
| 4-1-1 | Home record | 4-1-0 |
| 3-0-3 | Away record | 1-1-3 |
| W1 | Streak | L1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Real Sociedad · Lyon
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 14.3 | Shots | 11.9 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.6 | Shots on target | 4.4 |
| 5.3 | Corners | 4.9 |
| 2.32 | Cards | 1.68 |
| 12.8 | Fouls | 10.1 |
| 53 | Possession % | 52 |
| 1.67 | xG | 1.52 |
| 10 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Conceded
| 14.5 | Shots | 13.6 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.2 | Shots on target | 5.6 |
| 5.1 | Corners | 6.0 |
| 2.01 | Cards | 2.35 |
| 10.0 | Fouls | 13.3 |
| 47 | Possession % | 48 |
| 1.72 | xG | 1.48 |
| 10 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Form comparison
| Real Sociedad | Metric | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| 3.40 (better) | Goals scored | 1.20 |
| 1.20 (better) | Goals conceded | 2.00 |
| 1.86 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.24 |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.00 (better) | Shots on target | 4.00 |
| 14.40 (better) | Total shots | 9.60 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 3.80 | Corners | 4.60 (better) |
| 53.8 (better) | Possession % | 47.8 |
| 544 (better) | Passes | 461 |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.20 | Fouls | 8.40 (better) |
| 1.80 | Offsides | 0.60 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.40 | Yellow cards | 0.80 (better) |
| 0.33 | Red cards | 0.25 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Real Sociedad wins
- 0
- Draws
- 1
- Lyon wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 100%
- Real Sociedad v Lyon1–12026-11-05
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +10 | 12 | Benfica won 4 of the last 4 |
| 2 | Bournemouth | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +9 | 12 | Bournemouth won 4 of the last 4 |
| 3 | Ferencvarosi TC | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 12 | Ferencvarosi TC won 4 of the last 4 |
| 4 | Union St. Gilloise | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +8 | 10 | Union St. Gilloise won 3 of the last 4 |
| 5 | Juventus | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 10 | Juventus won 3 of the last 4 |
| 6 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 10 | Olympiakos Piraeus won 3 of the last 4 |
| 7 | Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +7 | 9 | Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of the last 4 |
| 8 | Beşiktaş | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 | Beşiktaş won 2 of the last 4 |
| 9 | Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 | Dinamo Zagreb won 2 of the last 4 |
| 10 | Levski Sofia | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 | Levski Sofia won 2 of the last 4 |
| 11 | Sunderland | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | Sunderland won 2 of the last 4 |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 | NEC Nijmegen won 2 of the last 4 |
| 13 | Lyon | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 | Lyon won 2 of the last 4 |
| 14 | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 6 | AZ Alkmaar won 2 of the last 4 |
| 15 | Anderlecht | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 6 | Anderlecht won 2 of the last 4 |
| 16 | OFI | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 6 | OFI won 2 of the last 4 |
| 17 | Rennes | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 | Rennes won 1 of the last 4 |
| 18 | Omonia Nicosia | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 | Omonia Nicosia won 2 of the last 4 |
| 19 | Torreense | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 | Torreense won 2 of the last 4 |
| 20 | Real Sociedad | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 5 | Real Sociedad won 1 of the last 4 |
| 21 | Crystal Palace | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 5 | Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 4 |
| 22 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1899 Hoffenheim won 1 of the last 4 |
| 23 | Sparta Praha | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | Sparta Praha won 1 of the last 4 |
| 24 | Sturm Graz | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 | Sturm Graz won 1 of the last 4 |
| 25 | Celje | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 4 | Celje won 1 of the last 4 |
| 26 | Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 4 | Red Bull Salzburg won 1 of the last 4 |
| 27 | Celta Vigo | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 | Celta Vigo won 1 of the last 4 |
| 28 | AC Milan | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 | AC Milan won 1 of the last 4 |
| 29 | Jagiellonia | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 | Jagiellonia won 1 of the last 4 |
| 30 | Plzen | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 | Plzen won 1 of the last 4 |
| 31 | Marseille | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 | Marseille won 1 of the last 4 |
| 32 | Celtic | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 | Celtic won 1 of the last 4 |
| 33 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 | Hapoel Beer Sheva won 0 of the last 4 |
| 34 | Lillestrom | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -8 | 1 | Lillestrom won 0 of the last 4 |
| 35 | Lech Poznan | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 1 | Lech Poznan won 0 of the last 4 |
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 | Ararat-Armenia won 0 of the last 4 |