Rennes v 
Olympiakos Piraeus
Match statistics
| Rennes | Olympiakos Piraeus | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 4 | Offsides | 0 |
| 426 | Passes | 594 |
| 42% | Possession % | 58% |
| 0.61 | xG | 1.03 |
- Over 1.5
- 72%
- Over 2.5
- 46%
- Over 3.5
- 24%
- Both score
- 51%
- Model pick
- Olympiakos Piraeus 43%
- Likely score
- 1-1 13%
- Expected goals
- 1.11 – 1.40
Advised bets
Void
Free pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Olympiakos Piraeus 0
Why this price?
Back Olympiakos Piraeus 0 on the Asian handicap at 2.35 with Bet365 — Olympiakos Piraeus to win; a draw returns the stake.
Our model puts the chance at 60% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 40%; we judge it at 48%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.10. The offered 2.35 implies only 43%, so the price is 12.0% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Rennes 1.11, Olympiakos Piraeus 1.40.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 72.0% | 1.39 | 1.25 Betano | 80.0% | -8.0 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 28.0% | 3.57 | 4.33 Bet365 | 23.1% | +4.9 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 45.8% | 2.19 | 1.75 Betano | 57.1% | -11.4 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 54.2% | 1.84 | 2.12 Betano | 47.2% | +7.1 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 24.4% | 4.11 | 2.88 Betfair | 34.7% | -10.4 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 75.6% | 1.32 | 1.45 Betano | 69.0% | +6.7 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 51.0% | 1.96 | 1.62 William Hill | 61.7% | -10.7 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 49.0% | 2.04 | 2.30 Betfair | 43.5% | +5.5 |
| Match result | Rennes | 29.1% | 3.44 | 2.30 Bet365 | 43.5% | -14.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 27.9% | 3.59 | 3.65 Betano | 27.4% | +0.5 |
| Match result | Olympiakos Piraeus | 43.0% | 2.32 | 3.35 Betano | 29.9% | +13.2 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Olympiakos Piraeus favoured against Rennes
Our model makes Rennes 29% to win this UEFA Europa League fixture, with the draw at 28% and Olympiakos Piraeus at 43%. The goal projection is 1.11 for Rennes against 1.40 for Olympiakos Piraeus — a clear edge to Olympiakos Piraeus on expected output. A combined 2.51 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 46% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 13%
- 0-1 11%
- 1-2 9%
- 0-0 9%
- 1-0 8%
This season
| Rennes | Olympiakos Piraeus | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Played | 10 |
| 5-1-4 | W-D-L | 7-2-1 |
| 1.60 | Pts / game | 2.30 |
| 2.10 | Goals for / game | 1.60 |
| 2.10 | Goals against / game | 0.50 |
| 90% | Over 2.5 | 20% |
| 70% | BTTS | 30% |
| 20% | Clean sheets | 60% |
| 10% | Failed to score | 10% |
| 4-1-1 | Home record | 3-1-1 |
| 1-0-3 | Away record | 4-1-0 |
| L2 | Streak | D1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Rennes · Olympiakos Piraeus
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 16.0 | Shots | 15.7 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.1 | Shots on target | 4.6 |
| 6.8 | Corners | 5.6 |
| 2.11 | Cards | 2.01 |
| 11.9 | Fouls | 13.5 |
| 52 | Possession % | 56 |
| 1.94 | xG | 1.24 |
| 9 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Conceded
| 12.3 | Shots | 10.1 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.1 | Shots on target | 3.3 |
| 3.9 | Corners | 5.1 |
| 2.22 | Cards | 3.67 |
| 12.6 | Fouls | 17.0 |
| 48 | Possession % | 44 |
| 1.86 | xG | 0.86 |
| 9 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Form comparison
| Rennes | Metric | Olympiakos Piraeus |
|---|---|---|
| 2.80 (better) | Goals scored | 2.20 |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded | 0.00 (better) |
| 2.23 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.33 |
| Big chances | ||
| 7.20 (better) | Shots on target | 5.50 |
| 17.80 | Total shots | 19.75 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 7.20 (better) | Corners | 6.25 |
| 53.4 | Possession % | 56.0 (better) |
| 492 (better) | Passes | 480 |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.20 (better) | Fouls | 12.75 |
| 1.40 (better) | Offsides | 2.25 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.40 | Yellow cards | 1.75 (better) |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Rennes wins
- 0
- Draws
- 1
- Olympiakos Piraeus wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 0.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 0%
- Rennes v Olympiakos Piraeus0–02026-11-04
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +10 | 12 | Benfica won 4 of the last 4 |
| 2 | Bournemouth | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +9 | 12 | Bournemouth won 4 of the last 4 |
| 3 | Ferencvarosi TC | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 12 | Ferencvarosi TC won 4 of the last 4 |
| 4 | Union St. Gilloise | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +8 | 10 | Union St. Gilloise won 3 of the last 4 |
| 5 | Juventus | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 10 | Juventus won 3 of the last 4 |
| 6 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 10 | Olympiakos Piraeus won 3 of the last 4 |
| 7 | Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +7 | 9 | Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of the last 4 |
| 8 | Beşiktaş | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 | Beşiktaş won 2 of the last 4 |
| 9 | Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 | Dinamo Zagreb won 2 of the last 4 |
| 10 | Levski Sofia | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 | Levski Sofia won 2 of the last 4 |
| 11 | Sunderland | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | Sunderland won 2 of the last 4 |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 | NEC Nijmegen won 2 of the last 4 |
| 13 | Lyon | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 | Lyon won 2 of the last 4 |
| 14 | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 6 | AZ Alkmaar won 2 of the last 4 |
| 15 | Anderlecht | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 6 | Anderlecht won 2 of the last 4 |
| 16 | OFI | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 6 | OFI won 2 of the last 4 |
| 17 | Rennes | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 | Rennes won 1 of the last 4 |
| 18 | Omonia Nicosia | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 | Omonia Nicosia won 2 of the last 4 |
| 19 | Torreense | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 | Torreense won 2 of the last 4 |
| 20 | Real Sociedad | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 5 | Real Sociedad won 1 of the last 4 |
| 21 | Crystal Palace | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 5 | Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 4 |
| 22 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1899 Hoffenheim won 1 of the last 4 |
| 23 | Sparta Praha | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | Sparta Praha won 1 of the last 4 |
| 24 | Sturm Graz | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 | Sturm Graz won 1 of the last 4 |
| 25 | Celje | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 4 | Celje won 1 of the last 4 |
| 26 | Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 4 | Red Bull Salzburg won 1 of the last 4 |
| 27 | Celta Vigo | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 | Celta Vigo won 1 of the last 4 |
| 28 | AC Milan | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 | AC Milan won 1 of the last 4 |
| 29 | Jagiellonia | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 | Jagiellonia won 1 of the last 4 |
| 30 | Plzen | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 | Plzen won 1 of the last 4 |
| 31 | Marseille | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 | Marseille won 1 of the last 4 |
| 32 | Celtic | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 | Celtic won 1 of the last 4 |
| 33 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 | Hapoel Beer Sheva won 0 of the last 4 |
| 34 | Lillestrom | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -8 | 1 | Lillestrom won 0 of the last 4 |
| 35 | Lech Poznan | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 1 | Lech Poznan won 0 of the last 4 |
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 | Ararat-Armenia won 0 of the last 4 |