Benfica v 
Lech Poznan
Match statistics
| Benfica | Lech Poznan | |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | Shots | 6 |
| 12 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Offsides | 3 |
| 518 | Passes | 398 |
| 56% | Possession % | 44% |
| 2.32 | xG | 0.48 |
- Over 1.5
- 91%
- Over 2.5
- 76%
- Over 3.5
- 57%
- Both score
- 69%
- Model pick
- Benfica 66%
- Likely score
- 2-1 9%
- Expected goals
- 2.69 – 1.33
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Both teams to score — Yes
Why this price?
Back both teams to score at 1.95 with Bet365 — each side scores at least once.
Our model puts the chance at 69% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 49%; we judge it at 57%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.75. The offered 1.95 implies only 51%, so the price is 11.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Benfica 2.69, Lech Poznan 1.33.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Benfica | 65.9% | 1.52 | 1.18 William Hill | 84.7% | -18.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 17.5% | 5.72 | 10.00 BetVictor | 10.0% | +7.5 |
| Match result | Lech Poznan | 16.6% | 6.04 | 23.00 Betano | 4.3% | +12.2 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 91.3% | 1.09 | 1.08 Betano | 92.6% | -1.3 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 8.7% | 11.50 | 10.00 Betfair | 10.0% | -1.3 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 76.5% | 1.31 | 1.32 Betano | 75.8% | +0.7 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 23.5% | 4.25 | 4.50 Betfair | 22.2% | +1.3 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 57.0% | 1.75 | 1.80 Betano | 55.6% | +1.5 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 43.0% | 2.33 | 2.38 Betfair | 42.0% | +0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 68.9% | 1.45 | 2.00 Betano | 50.0% | +18.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 31.1% | 3.21 | 2.05 Betfair | 48.8% | -17.7 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Benfica favoured against Lech Poznan
Our model makes Benfica 66% to win this UEFA Europa League fixture, with the draw at 17% and Lech Poznan at 17%. The goal projection is 2.69 for Benfica against 1.33 for Lech Poznan — a commanding edge to Benfica on expected output. A combined 4.02 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 76% and both teams to score at 69%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Benfica is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 34% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 2-1 9%
- 3-1 8%
- 1-1 7%
- 2-0 6%
- 3-0 6%
This season
| Benfica | Lech Poznan | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Played | 13 |
| 9-1-1 | W-D-L | 10-2-1 |
| 2.55 | Pts / game | 2.46 |
| 2.73 | Goals for / game | 2.62 |
| 0.91 | Goals against / game | 1.00 |
| 82% | Over 2.5 | 85% |
| 55% | BTTS | 77% |
| 45% | Clean sheets | 23% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 8% |
| 4-1-0 | Home record | 6-2-0 |
| 5-0-1 | Away record | 4-0-1 |
| W4 | Streak | D1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Benfica · Lech Poznan
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 19.0 | Shots | 16.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.1 | Shots on target | 6.3 |
| 6.8 | Corners | 5.9 |
| 3.00 | Cards | 1.33 |
| 11.5 | Fouls | 9.9 |
| 60 | Possession % | 53 |
| 2.11 | xG | 2.05 |
| 8 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Conceded
| 10.4 | Shots | 16.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.5 | Shots on target | 7.0 |
| 3.8 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 2.38 | Cards | 1.90 |
| 14.6 | Fouls | 13.2 |
| 40 | Possession % | 47 |
| 1.02 | xG | 1.94 |
| 8 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Form comparison
| Benfica | Metric | Lech Poznan |
|---|---|---|
| 2.60 (better) | Goals scored | 1.80 |
| 1.20 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.60 |
| 2.35 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.68 |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.60 (better) | Shots on target | 5.00 |
| 20.00 (better) | Total shots | 12.50 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.00 (better) | Corners | 4.25 |
| 59.2 (better) | Possession % | 46.5 |
| 549 (better) | Passes | 419 |
| Tackles | ||
| 10.80 | Fouls | 9.25 (better) |
| 1.40 | Offsides | 0.50 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 3.80 | Yellow cards | 1.25 (better) |
| 0.50 | Red cards | 0.00 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Benfica wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Lech Poznan wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 4.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 100%
- Benfica v Lech Poznan3–12026-11-05
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +10 | 12 | Benfica won 4 of the last 4 |
| 2 | Bournemouth | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +9 | 12 | Bournemouth won 4 of the last 4 |
| 3 | Ferencvarosi TC | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 12 | Ferencvarosi TC won 4 of the last 4 |
| 4 | Union St. Gilloise | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +8 | 10 | Union St. Gilloise won 3 of the last 4 |
| 5 | Juventus | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 10 | Juventus won 3 of the last 4 |
| 6 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 10 | Olympiakos Piraeus won 3 of the last 4 |
| 7 | Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +7 | 9 | Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of the last 4 |
| 8 | Beşiktaş | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 | Beşiktaş won 2 of the last 4 |
| 9 | Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 | Dinamo Zagreb won 2 of the last 4 |
| 10 | Levski Sofia | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 | Levski Sofia won 2 of the last 4 |
| 11 | Sunderland | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | Sunderland won 2 of the last 4 |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 | NEC Nijmegen won 2 of the last 4 |
| 13 | Lyon | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 | Lyon won 2 of the last 4 |
| 14 | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 6 | AZ Alkmaar won 2 of the last 4 |
| 15 | Anderlecht | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 6 | Anderlecht won 2 of the last 4 |
| 16 | OFI | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 6 | OFI won 2 of the last 4 |
| 17 | Rennes | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 | Rennes won 1 of the last 4 |
| 18 | Omonia Nicosia | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 | Omonia Nicosia won 2 of the last 4 |
| 19 | Torreense | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 | Torreense won 2 of the last 4 |
| 20 | Real Sociedad | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 5 | Real Sociedad won 1 of the last 4 |
| 21 | Crystal Palace | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 5 | Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 4 |
| 22 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1899 Hoffenheim won 1 of the last 4 |
| 23 | Sparta Praha | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | Sparta Praha won 1 of the last 4 |
| 24 | Sturm Graz | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 | Sturm Graz won 1 of the last 4 |
| 25 | Celje | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 4 | Celje won 1 of the last 4 |
| 26 | Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 4 | Red Bull Salzburg won 1 of the last 4 |
| 27 | Celta Vigo | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 | Celta Vigo won 1 of the last 4 |
| 28 | AC Milan | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 | AC Milan won 1 of the last 4 |
| 29 | Jagiellonia | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 | Jagiellonia won 1 of the last 4 |
| 30 | Plzen | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 | Plzen won 1 of the last 4 |
| 31 | Marseille | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 | Marseille won 1 of the last 4 |
| 32 | Celtic | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 | Celtic won 1 of the last 4 |
| 33 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 | Hapoel Beer Sheva won 0 of the last 4 |
| 34 | Lillestrom | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -8 | 1 | Lillestrom won 0 of the last 4 |
| 35 | Lech Poznan | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 1 | Lech Poznan won 0 of the last 4 |
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 | Ararat-Armenia won 0 of the last 4 |