UEFA Europa League · Review

UEFA Europa League league phase matchday 3 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every UEFA Europa League result from league phase matchday 3 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 23 Oct 2026, updated 23 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

UEFA Europa League, league phase matchday 3 (22 October 2026), is complete: 18 matches, 63 goals (3.50 a game), six home wins, four draws and eight away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of the 18 and both teams scored in nine.

The result the model rated least likely was NEC Nijmegen's win in Dinamo Zagreb v NEC Nijmegen (2–4), which it had at 17%; the one it rated most likely was Union St. Gilloise's win in Union St. Gilloise v Hapoel Beer Sheva (4–0), at 58%.

Match by match

Ararat-Armenia 0–4 AZ AlkmaarThu 22 Oct, 17:45

Before kick-off the model had Ararat-Armenia 30%, the draw 27% and AZ Alkmaar 43%, so AZ Alkmaar winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.42–1.70: AZ Alkmaar created the better chances. The headline call, AZ Alkmaar to win at 43%, came in.

Dinamo Zagreb 2–4 NEC NijmegenThu 22 Oct, 17:45

Before kick-off the model had Dinamo Zagreb 63%, the draw 19% and NEC Nijmegen 17%, with Dinamo Zagreb favoured; it put NEC Nijmegen winning at 17%. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 2.56–1.25: Dinamo Zagreb created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, both teams to score at 64%, came in.

Ferencvarosi TC 4–1 TorreenseThu 22 Oct, 17:45

Before kick-off the model had Ferencvarosi TC 54%, the draw 25% and Torreense 21%, so Ferencvarosi TC winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.11–0.79: Ferencvarosi TC created the better chances. The headline call, Ferencvarosi TC to win at 54%, came in.

Juventus 2–2 RennesThu 22 Oct, 17:45

Before kick-off the model had Juventus 62%, the draw 19% and Rennes 18%, with Juventus favoured; it put the draw at 19%. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 2.25–1.72: Juventus created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 66%, came in. Pick published: Over 2.5 at 1.85 — won.

Lech Poznan 1–1 SunderlandThu 22 Oct, 17:45

Before kick-off the model had Lech Poznan 61%, the draw 22% and Sunderland 17%, with Lech Poznan favoured; it put the draw at 22%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 2.51–2.78: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Lech Poznan to win at 61%, did not come in. Pick published: Lech Poznan +0.75 at 1.94 — won.

OFI 0–2 Bayer LeverkusenThu 22 Oct, 17:45

Before kick-off the model had OFI 25%, the draw 24% and Bayer Leverkusen 51%, so Bayer Leverkusen winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.27–3.11: Bayer Leverkusen created the better chances. The headline call, Bayer Leverkusen to win at 51%, came in. Pick published: OFI +0.75 at 2.81 — lost.

Sturm Graz 1–0 MarseilleThu 22 Oct, 17:45

Before kick-off the model had Sturm Graz 44%, the draw 27% and Marseille 29%, so Sturm Graz winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.47–0.73: Sturm Graz created the better chances. The headline call, Sturm Graz to win at 44%, came in.

Union St. Gilloise 4–0 Hapoel Beer ShevaThu 22 Oct, 17:45

Before kick-off the model had Union St. Gilloise 58%, the draw 26% and Hapoel Beer Sheva 16%, so Union St. Gilloise winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-0. Expected goals were 2.76–0.65: Union St. Gilloise created the better chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 58%, did not come in. Pick published: Under 3.5 at 1.64 — lost.

1899 Hoffenheim 3–0 LyonThu 22 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had 1899 Hoffenheim 34%, the draw 26% and Lyon 40%, with Lyon favoured; it put 1899 Hoffenheim winning at 34%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.13–0.89: 1899 Hoffenheim created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 60%, did not come in. Pick published: 1899 Hoffenheim -0.75 at 2.15 — won.

Beşiktaş 2–2 Crystal PalaceThu 22 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Beşiktaş 52%, the draw 24% and Crystal Palace 24%, with Beşiktaş favoured; it put the draw at 24%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.73–0.46: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 58%, came in. Pick published: Beşiktaş -0.25 at 1.86 — half lost.

Bournemouth 3–0 AC MilanThu 22 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Bournemouth 46%, the draw 25% and AC Milan 29%, so Bournemouth winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 3.22–0.17: Bournemouth created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 58%, did not come in. Pick published: Bournemouth -0.5 at 2.10 (free pick) — won.

Celje 2–2 Red Bull SalzburgThu 22 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Celje 32%, the draw 26% and Red Bull Salzburg 43%, with Red Bull Salzburg favoured; it put the draw at 26%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.53–1.72: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 58%, came in. Pick published: Celje 0 at 3.14 — void.

Celtic 1–2 Celta VigoThu 22 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Celtic 49%, the draw 26% and Celta Vigo 25%, with Celtic favoured; it put Celta Vigo winning at 25%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.56–1.36: Celta Vigo created the better chances. The headline call, Celtic to win at 49%, did not come in. Pick published: Celtic at 2.71 — lost.

Jagiellonia 0–3 AnderlechtThu 22 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Jagiellonia 45%, the draw 25% and Anderlecht 30%, with Jagiellonia favoured; it put Anderlecht winning at 30%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.40–1.02: Anderlecht created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 60%, did not come in. Pick published: Jagiellonia at 2.93 — lost.

Lillestrom 0–6 Real SociedadThu 22 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Lillestrom 37%, the draw 27% and Real Sociedad 36%, with Lillestrom favoured; it put Real Sociedad winning at 36%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.29–2.46: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 57%, did not come in.

Olympiakos Piraeus 1–0 Sparta PrahaThu 22 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Olympiakos Piraeus 40%, the draw 30% and Sparta Praha 30%, so Olympiakos Piraeus winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.17–0.73: Olympiakos Piraeus created the better chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 61%, came in. Pick published: Under 2.5 at 2.06 — won.

Omonia Nicosia 1–4 BenficaThu 22 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Omonia Nicosia 20%, the draw 24% and Benfica 57%, so Benfica winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.91–3.08: Benfica created the better chances. The headline call, Benfica to win at 57%, came in. Pick published: Omonia Nicosia +0.25 at 3.80 — lost.

Plzen 1–2 Levski SofiaThu 22 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Plzen 45%, the draw 27% and Levski Sofia 27%, with Plzen favoured; it put Levski Sofia winning at 27%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.09–1.06: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Plzen to win at 45%, did not come in. Pick published: Plzen -0.75 at 1.83 — lost.

The numbers this season

UEFA Europa League has averaged 2.86 goals a game over 134 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 60% of them and both sides scoring in 46%. Home sides have won 47% of matches, 21% have been drawn and away sides have won 32%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.