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UEFA Europa League predictions: league phase matchday 4 (5 November 2026)

Every UEFA Europa League match in league phase matchday 4 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 29 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

UEFA Europa League, league phase matchday 4: 18 matches, played on 5 November 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Benfica, 66% to beat Lech Poznan at home; the most evenly balanced game is Sparta Praha v Bournemouth (Sparta Praha 37%, draw 25%, Bournemouth 38%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Benfica v Lech Poznan, at 4.02; the tightest looks Levski Sofia v Jagiellonia, at 2.29.

The numbers this season

UEFA Europa League has averaged 2.86 goals a game over 134 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 60% of them and both sides scoring in 46%. Home sides have won 47% of matches, 21% have been drawn and away sides have won 32%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

AC Milan v Ferencvarosi TCThu 5 Nov, 17:45

Our model makes AC Milan 33%, the draw 26% and Ferencvarosi TC 41%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.89 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is both teams to score at 59%. AC Milan are 5th on 18 points from 9; Ferencvarosi TC are 3rd on 17 points from 10. AC Milan have won three of their last five; Ferencvarosi TC are unbeaten in five (one win, four draws).

Anderlecht v Red Bull SalzburgThu 5 Nov, 17:45

Our model makes Anderlecht 34%, the draw 26% and Red Bull Salzburg 40%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.86 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%. The headline call is both teams to score at 58%. Anderlecht are 5th on 16 points from 9; Red Bull Salzburg are 2nd on 24 points from 10. Anderlecht have won three of their last five; Red Bull Salzburg are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws).

Crystal Palace v 1899 HoffenheimThu 5 Nov, 17:45

Our model makes Crystal Palace 37%, the draw 24% and 1899 Hoffenheim 39%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.32 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 66%. The headline call is both teams to score at 66%. Crystal Palace are 17th on 7 points from 8; 1899 Hoffenheim are 10th on 9 points from 7. Crystal Palace have won one of their last five; 1899 Hoffenheim have won three of their last five.

Levski Sofia v JagielloniaThu 5 Nov, 17:45

Our model makes Levski Sofia 43%, the draw 29% and Jagiellonia 28%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.29 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 60%. Levski Sofia are 17th on 4 points from 3; Jagiellonia are 10th on 15 points from 11. Levski Sofia have won two of their last five; Jagiellonia have won one of their last five.

Lillestrom v PlzenThu 5 Nov, 17:45

Our model makes Lillestrom 34%, the draw 25% and Plzen 41%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 3.00 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is both teams to score at 61%. Lillestrom are 6th on 39 points from 24; Plzen are 9th on 16 points from 12. Lillestrom have won three of their last five; Plzen have won two of their last five.

NEC Nijmegen v Omonia NicosiaThu 5 Nov, 17:45

Our model makes NEC Nijmegen 41%, the draw 26% and Omonia Nicosia 33%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.77 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 57%. The headline call is both teams to score at 57%. NEC Nijmegen are 12th on 11 points from 10; Omonia Nicosia are 11th on 6 points from 3. NEC Nijmegen are without a win in five (four draws, one defeat).

Real Sociedad v LyonThu 5 Nov, 17:45

Our model makes Real Sociedad 44%, the draw 23% and Lyon 33%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.42 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 67%. The headline call is both teams to score at 67%. Real Sociedad are 5th on 19 points from 10; Lyon are 5th on 14 points from 8. Real Sociedad have won four of their last five; Lyon have won two of their last five.

Rennes v Olympiakos PiraeusThu 5 Nov, 17:45

Our model makes Rennes 29%, the draw 28% and Olympiakos Piraeus 43%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.51 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%. The headline call is Olympiakos Piraeus to win at 43%. Rennes are 2nd on 16 points from 8; Olympiakos Piraeus are 2nd on 19 points from 8. Rennes have won three of their last five; Olympiakos Piraeus have won four of their last five.

Sparta Praha v BournemouthThu 5 Nov, 17:45

Our model makes Sparta Praha 37%, the draw 25% and Bournemouth 38%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.19 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 64%. The headline call is both teams to score at 64%. Sparta Praha are 2nd on 22 points from 12; Bournemouth are 13th on 9 points from 8. Sparta Praha are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw); Bournemouth have won two of their last five.

AZ Alkmaar v JuventusThu 5 Nov, 20:00

Our model makes AZ Alkmaar 40%, the draw 27% and Juventus 33%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.74 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%. The headline call is both teams to score at 56%. AZ Alkmaar are 5th on 20 points from 10; Juventus are 8th on 14 points from 9. AZ Alkmaar have won one of their last five; Juventus have won two of their last five.

Bayer Leverkusen v MarseilleThu 5 Nov, 20:00

Our model makes Bayer Leverkusen 61%, the draw 20% and Marseille 19%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.63 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 66%. The headline call is both teams to score at 66%. Bayer Leverkusen are 4th on 13 points from 7; Marseille are 8th on 12 points from 8. Bayer Leverkusen have won three of their last five; Marseille have won three of their last five.

Benfica v Lech PoznanThu 5 Nov, 20:00

Our model makes Benfica 66%, the draw 17% and Lech Poznan 17%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 4.02 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 69%. The headline call is over 3.5 goals at 57%. Benfica are 2nd on 22 points from 9; Lech Poznan are 1st on 28 points from 11. Benfica have won four of their last five; Lech Poznan have won four of their last five.

Celta Vigo v Union St. GilloiseThu 5 Nov, 20:00

Our model makes Celta Vigo 24%, the draw 28% and Union St. Gilloise 47%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.37 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 47%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 58%. Celta Vigo are 9th on 12 points from 10; Union St. Gilloise are 3rd on 23 points from 9. Celta Vigo are unbeaten in five (two wins, three draws); Union St. Gilloise are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw).

Celtic v BeşiktaşThu 5 Nov, 20:00

Our model makes Celtic 42%, the draw 24% and Beşiktaş 33%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.19 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 64%. The headline call is both teams to score at 64%. Celtic are 1st on 28 points from 11; Beşiktaş are 4th on 18 points from 9. Celtic have won three of their last five; Beşiktaş have won three of their last five.

Hapoel Beer Sheva v OFIThu 5 Nov, 20:00

Our model makes Hapoel Beer Sheva 43%, the draw 27% and OFI 30%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.65 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is Hapoel Beer Sheva to win at 43%. Hapoel Beer Sheva are 30th on 1 point from 3; OFI are 6th on 13 points from 8. Hapoel Beer Sheva have won four of their last five; OFI have won two of their last five.

Sturm Graz v CeljeThu 5 Nov, 20:00

Our model makes Sturm Graz 52%, the draw 26% and Celje 22%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.63 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 51%. The headline call is Sturm Graz to win at 52%. Sturm Graz are 4th on 18 points from 10; Celje are 29th on 1 point from 3. Sturm Graz have won three of their last five; Celje have won one of their last five.

Sunderland v Dinamo ZagrebThu 5 Nov, 20:00

Our model makes Sunderland 29%, the draw 25% and Dinamo Zagreb 46%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.03 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is both teams to score at 61%. Sunderland are 20th on 5 points from 8; Dinamo Zagreb are 2nd on 19 points from 9. Sunderland are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats); Dinamo Zagreb have won three of their last five.

Torreense v Ararat-ArmeniaThu 5 Nov, 20:00

Our model makes Torreense 50%, the draw 24% and Ararat-Armenia 25%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.00 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is both teams to score at 59%. Ararat-Armenia are 36th on 0 points from 3. Ararat-Armenia have won two of their last five.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

A pick is published only where the best available price stands clear of the model's probability and the market's consensus together; most fixtures get none. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.