Levski Sofia v 
Jagiellonia
Match statistics
| Levski Sofia | Jagiellonia | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 447 | Passes | 489 |
| 48% | Possession % | 52% |
| 0.77 | xG | 1.05 |
- Over 1.5
- 67%
- Over 2.5
- 40%
- Over 3.5
- 20%
- Both score
- 46%
- Model pick
- Levski Sofia 43%
- Likely score
- 1-1 14%
- Expected goals
- 1.31 – 0.99
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Levski Sofia -0.5
Why this price?
Back Levski Sofia -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.00 with Bet365 — Levski Sofia must win by more than 0.5 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 43% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 64%; we judge it at 55%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.80. The offered 2.00 implies only 50%, so the price is 10.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Levski Sofia 1.31, Jagiellonia 0.99.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 3 of 5Under 2.5
Why this price?
Back under 2.5 goals at 2.07 with Betano — 2 goals or fewer in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 60% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 47%; we judge it at 52%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.92. The offered 2.07 implies only 48%, so the price is 8.0% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.86 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Levski Sofia 1.31, Jagiellonia 0.99.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Levski Sofia | 43.1% | 2.32 | 2.08 Dafabet | 48.1% | -4.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 29.3% | 3.42 | 3.65 Dafabet | 27.4% | +1.9 |
| Match result | Jagiellonia | 27.6% | 3.62 | 3.70 Bet365 | 27.0% | +0.6 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 67.4% | 1.48 | 1.31 Betano | 76.3% | -8.9 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 32.6% | 3.07 | 4.00 Bet365 | 25.0% | +7.6 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 40.3% | 2.48 | 1.93 Betano | 51.8% | -11.6 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 59.7% | 1.67 | 1.95 Betano | 51.3% | +8.5 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 20.0% | 5.01 | 3.40 BetVictor | 29.4% | -9.5 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 80.0% | 1.25 | 1.38 Betano | 72.5% | +7.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 46.4% | 2.15 | 1.75 William Hill | 57.1% | -10.7 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 53.6% | 1.87 | 2.20 Betfair | 45.5% | +8.1 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Levski Sofia favoured against Jagiellonia
Our model makes Levski Sofia 43% to win this UEFA Europa League fixture, with the draw at 29% and Jagiellonia at 28%. The goal projection is 1.31 for Levski Sofia against 0.99 for Jagiellonia — a clear edge to Levski Sofia on expected output. A combined 2.29 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 40% and both teams to score at 46%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 14%
- 1-0 13%
- 0-0 11%
- 0-1 9%
- 2-0 9%
This season
| Levski Sofia | Jagiellonia | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Played | 13 |
| 4-3-1 | W-D-L | 7-0-6 |
| 1.88 | Pts / game | 1.62 |
| 1.25 | Goals for / game | 1.38 |
| 0.88 | Goals against / game | 1.38 |
| 38% | Over 2.5 | 54% |
| 25% | BTTS | 54% |
| 63% | Clean sheets | 23% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 23% |
| 3-1-0 | Home record | 4-0-3 |
| 1-2-1 | Away record | 3-0-3 |
| L1 | Streak | W3 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Levski Sofia · Jagiellonia
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 9.0 | Shots | 15.1 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.3 | Shots on target | 4.1 |
| 2.0 | Corners | 4.8 |
| 1.33 | Cards | 1.33 |
| 11.0 | Fouls | 13.0 |
| 45 | Possession % | 53 |
| 1.07 | xG | 1.71 |
| 3 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Conceded
| 13.7 | Shots | 13.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.3 | Shots on target | 5.2 |
| 5.0 | Corners | 4.9 |
| 1.67 | Cards | 2.11 |
| 12.0 | Fouls | 13.2 |
| 55 | Possession % | 47 |
| 1.40 | xG | 1.47 |
| 3 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Form comparison
| Levski Sofia | Metric | Jagiellonia |
|---|---|---|
| 1.60 | Goals scored | 2.00 (better) |
| 0.60 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.00 |
| 1.23 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.42 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.00 | Shots on target | 3.25 (better) |
| 8.75 | Total shots | 13.75 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 3.50 | Corners | 4.25 (better) |
| 53.8 (better) | Possession % | 50.0 |
| 469 (better) | Passes | 435 |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.50 (better) | Fouls | 15.75 |
| 0.50 (better) | Offsides | 2.50 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 0.75 (better) | Yellow cards | 1.75 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Levski Sofia wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Jagiellonia wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 1.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 0%
- Levski Sofia v Jagiellonia1–02026-11-05
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +10 | 12 | Benfica won 4 of the last 4 |
| 2 | Bournemouth | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +9 | 12 | Bournemouth won 4 of the last 4 |
| 3 | Ferencvarosi TC | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 12 | Ferencvarosi TC won 4 of the last 4 |
| 4 | Union St. Gilloise | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +8 | 10 | Union St. Gilloise won 3 of the last 4 |
| 5 | Juventus | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 10 | Juventus won 3 of the last 4 |
| 6 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 10 | Olympiakos Piraeus won 3 of the last 4 |
| 7 | Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +7 | 9 | Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of the last 4 |
| 8 | Beşiktaş | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 | Beşiktaş won 2 of the last 4 |
| 9 | Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 | Dinamo Zagreb won 2 of the last 4 |
| 10 | Levski Sofia | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 | Levski Sofia won 2 of the last 4 |
| 11 | Sunderland | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | Sunderland won 2 of the last 4 |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 | NEC Nijmegen won 2 of the last 4 |
| 13 | Lyon | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 | Lyon won 2 of the last 4 |
| 14 | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 6 | AZ Alkmaar won 2 of the last 4 |
| 15 | Anderlecht | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 6 | Anderlecht won 2 of the last 4 |
| 16 | OFI | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 6 | OFI won 2 of the last 4 |
| 17 | Rennes | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 | Rennes won 1 of the last 4 |
| 18 | Omonia Nicosia | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 | Omonia Nicosia won 2 of the last 4 |
| 19 | Torreense | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 | Torreense won 2 of the last 4 |
| 20 | Real Sociedad | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 5 | Real Sociedad won 1 of the last 4 |
| 21 | Crystal Palace | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 5 | Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 4 |
| 22 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1899 Hoffenheim won 1 of the last 4 |
| 23 | Sparta Praha | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | Sparta Praha won 1 of the last 4 |
| 24 | Sturm Graz | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 | Sturm Graz won 1 of the last 4 |
| 25 | Celje | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 4 | Celje won 1 of the last 4 |
| 26 | Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 4 | Red Bull Salzburg won 1 of the last 4 |
| 27 | Celta Vigo | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 | Celta Vigo won 1 of the last 4 |
| 28 | AC Milan | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 | AC Milan won 1 of the last 4 |
| 29 | Jagiellonia | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 | Jagiellonia won 1 of the last 4 |
| 30 | Plzen | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 | Plzen won 1 of the last 4 |
| 31 | Marseille | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 | Marseille won 1 of the last 4 |
| 32 | Celtic | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 | Celtic won 1 of the last 4 |
| 33 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 | Hapoel Beer Sheva won 0 of the last 4 |
| 34 | Lillestrom | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -8 | 1 | Lillestrom won 0 of the last 4 |
| 35 | Lech Poznan | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 1 | Lech Poznan won 0 of the last 4 |
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 | Ararat-Armenia won 0 of the last 4 |