Bayer Leverkusen v 
Marseille
Match statistics
| Bayer Leverkusen | Marseille | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| — | Offsides | — |
| 702 | Passes | 522 |
| 58% | Possession % | 42% |
| 0.94 | xG | 1.17 |
- Over 1.5
- 88%
- Over 2.5
- 70%
- Over 3.5
- 49%
- Both score
- 66%
- Model pick
- Bayer Leverkusen 61%
- Likely score
- 2-1 9%
- Expected goals
- 2.35 – 1.28
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 4 of 5Bayer Leverkusen -0.75
Why this price?
Back Bayer Leverkusen -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 1.50 with Bet365 — Bayer Leverkusen must win by more than 0.75 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 56% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 83%; we judge it at 72%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.38. The offered 1.50 implies only 67%, so the price is 8.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Bayer Leverkusen 2.35, Marseille 1.28.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Bayer Leverkusen | 60.7% | 1.65 | 1.44 Dafabet | 69.4% | -8.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 19.9% | 5.03 | 6.40 Dafabet | 15.6% | +4.3 |
| Match result | Marseille | 19.4% | 5.16 | 9.50 BetVictor | 10.5% | +8.9 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 88.1% | 1.14 | 1.11 Betano | 90.1% | -2.0 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 11.9% | 8.42 | 8.00 Betfair | 12.5% | -0.6 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 70.3% | 1.42 | 1.34 Betano | 74.6% | -4.4 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 29.7% | 3.36 | 3.40 Bet365 | 29.4% | +0.3 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 49.1% | 2.04 | 2.15 Betano | 46.5% | +2.6 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 50.9% | 1.97 | 2.00 Betano | 50.0% | +0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 65.8% | 1.52 | 1.75 Betfair | 57.1% | +8.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 34.2% | 2.92 | 2.38 Betfair | 42.0% | -7.8 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Bayer Leverkusen favoured against Marseille
Our model makes Bayer Leverkusen 61% to win this UEFA Europa League fixture, with the draw at 20% and Marseille at 19%. The goal projection is 2.35 for Bayer Leverkusen against 1.28 for Marseille — a commanding edge to Bayer Leverkusen on expected output. A combined 3.63 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 70% and both teams to score at 66%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Bayer Leverkusen is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 39% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 2-1 9%
- 1-1 8%
- 3-1 7%
- 2-0 7%
- 2-2 6%
This season
| Bayer Leverkusen | Marseille | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Played | 10 |
| 5-1-3 | W-D-L | 6-0-4 |
| 1.78 | Pts / game | 1.80 |
| 2.22 | Goals for / game | 2.20 |
| 1.89 | Goals against / game | 1.40 |
| 89% | Over 2.5 | 60% |
| 67% | BTTS | 50% |
| 22% | Clean sheets | 30% |
| 11% | Failed to score | 20% |
| 3-0-1 | Home record | 3-0-2 |
| 2-1-2 | Away record | 3-0-2 |
| W1 | Streak | W5 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Bayer Leverkusen · Marseille
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 17.6 | Shots | 12.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 7.0 | Shots on target | 3.9 |
| 6.4 | Corners | 4.4 |
| 2.44 | Cards | 2.01 |
| 11.9 | Fouls | 12.1 |
| 58 | Possession % | 54 |
| 2.14 | xG | 1.51 |
| 9 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Conceded
| 13.0 | Shots | 15.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Shots on target | 5.3 |
| 3.8 | Corners | 3.8 |
| 2.79 | Cards | 1.89 |
| 9.4 | Fouls | 12.1 |
| 42 | Possession % | 46 |
| 1.74 | xG | 1.71 |
| 9 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Form comparison
| Bayer Leverkusen | Metric | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| 2.60 (better) | Goals scored | 2.20 |
| 1.20 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.40 |
| 2.79 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.47 |
| Big chances | ||
| 8.20 (better) | Shots on target | 4.20 |
| 20.20 (better) | Total shots | 12.40 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 7.00 (better) | Corners | 5.00 |
| 58.2 | Possession % | 60.2 (better) |
| 576 | Passes | 580 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 13.00 (better) | Fouls | 13.20 |
| 1.60 (better) | Offsides | 2.25 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.20 | Yellow cards | 1.60 (better) |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Bayer Leverkusen wins
- 0
- Draws
- 0
- Marseille wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 1.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 0%
- Bayer Leverkusen v Marseille0–12026-11-05
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +10 | 12 | Benfica won 4 of the last 4 |
| 2 | Bournemouth | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +9 | 12 | Bournemouth won 4 of the last 4 |
| 3 | Ferencvarosi TC | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 12 | Ferencvarosi TC won 4 of the last 4 |
| 4 | Union St. Gilloise | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +8 | 10 | Union St. Gilloise won 3 of the last 4 |
| 5 | Juventus | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 10 | Juventus won 3 of the last 4 |
| 6 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 10 | Olympiakos Piraeus won 3 of the last 4 |
| 7 | Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +7 | 9 | Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of the last 4 |
| 8 | Beşiktaş | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 | Beşiktaş won 2 of the last 4 |
| 9 | Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 | Dinamo Zagreb won 2 of the last 4 |
| 10 | Levski Sofia | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 | Levski Sofia won 2 of the last 4 |
| 11 | Sunderland | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | Sunderland won 2 of the last 4 |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 | NEC Nijmegen won 2 of the last 4 |
| 13 | Lyon | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 | Lyon won 2 of the last 4 |
| 14 | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 6 | AZ Alkmaar won 2 of the last 4 |
| 15 | Anderlecht | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 6 | Anderlecht won 2 of the last 4 |
| 16 | OFI | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 6 | OFI won 2 of the last 4 |
| 17 | Rennes | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 | Rennes won 1 of the last 4 |
| 18 | Omonia Nicosia | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 | Omonia Nicosia won 2 of the last 4 |
| 19 | Torreense | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 | Torreense won 2 of the last 4 |
| 20 | Real Sociedad | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 5 | Real Sociedad won 1 of the last 4 |
| 21 | Crystal Palace | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 5 | Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 4 |
| 22 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1899 Hoffenheim won 1 of the last 4 |
| 23 | Sparta Praha | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | Sparta Praha won 1 of the last 4 |
| 24 | Sturm Graz | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 | Sturm Graz won 1 of the last 4 |
| 25 | Celje | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 4 | Celje won 1 of the last 4 |
| 26 | Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 4 | Red Bull Salzburg won 1 of the last 4 |
| 27 | Celta Vigo | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 | Celta Vigo won 1 of the last 4 |
| 28 | AC Milan | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 | AC Milan won 1 of the last 4 |
| 29 | Jagiellonia | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 | Jagiellonia won 1 of the last 4 |
| 30 | Plzen | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 | Plzen won 1 of the last 4 |
| 31 | Marseille | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 | Marseille won 1 of the last 4 |
| 32 | Celtic | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 | Celtic won 1 of the last 4 |
| 33 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 | Hapoel Beer Sheva won 0 of the last 4 |
| 34 | Lillestrom | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -8 | 1 | Lillestrom won 0 of the last 4 |
| 35 | Lech Poznan | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 1 | Lech Poznan won 0 of the last 4 |
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 | Ararat-Armenia won 0 of the last 4 |